US and Iran conflict thread. ( merged threads)

tirwin1 said:

Partly because their military is going to get smaller and smaller as the years go by because their population is declining. For a country that claims they think in terms of centuries that one child policy was a not well thought out. No one ever said commies were the brightest.

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They still have more military aged males than anyone else and that's not changing.

China would probably be more than happy to kill off some of them to avoid unrest as a matter of fact....

But yeah you're right. They usually "solve" one problem and create another worse one from the solution.

Drinkthekoolaid said:

China wants to pass us and overtake us as the global superpower without direct military conflict in the process.

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Correct. They want to do it by economic dominance and spy games.

Trump says US has paused Tuesday's planned Iran strike as ‘serious negotiations’ unfold​

President Trump / AP Photo / Jose Luis Magana

President Donald Trump said Monday that the United States is holding off on a planned attack on Iran that had been scheduled for Tuesday, citing what he described as “serious negotiations” involving key Middle Eastern allies.
“I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow, in that serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond,” Trump said in a post shared on Truth Social.
“This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN!” Trump said.
“Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached,” he added.

I have "Let's Make a Deal" fatigue.

Iran wouldn't even abide by a deal that was very favorable to them.
Everybody already knows that by now. Duh.

WTF is President Trump doing? This is not the time for "Art of the Deal" stuff.
It's time for more bombs and missiles. IMHO

Bigfoot said:

I have "Let's Make a Deal" fatigue.

Iran wouldn't even abide by a deal that was very favorable to them.
Everybody already knows that by now. Duh.

WTF is President Trump doing? This is not the time for "Art of the Deal" stuff.
It's time for more bombs and missiles. IMHO

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Playing the market?
Every time he says he is going to bomb them the market drops. Then he says "we're pausing the bombs" and the market rises.
Maybe they are using this to make millions?

Grimscale said:

Playing the market?
Every time he says he is going to bomb them the market drops. Then he says "we're pausing the bombs" and the market rises.

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Lol. Boy is that theory full of horseshit. A quick check of the stock market trends confirmed the markets are certainly not following your theory or reacting to his truth social posts as you suggest.

And although a check of oil futures sometimes shows a modest movement with the Truth Social rhetoric, the movement is just the opposite that you suggest (price goes up with a real threat of war)

Bigfoot said:

I have "Let's Make a Deal" fatigue.


WTF is President Trump doing? This is not the time for "Art of the Deal" stuff.
It's time for more bombs and missiles. IMHO

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He's buying time. and the midterms are comming up. He's pulling troops from from everywhere and marshaling an army worthy of Mordor.

Personally, Any strikes now are almost worthless , We destroyed a lot , but we cant finish the job. its going to require ground troops ,and ground troops are going to take some time . supplies have to be forward positioned first. and they have to be out of range of long range missile strikes , troop concentrations are Missile magnets , see Ukraine war.

So yeah we can send in some missiles and airstrikes but its not going to make them sign a deal . that strategy has already failed . We can do it again with the same result but its a waste of good missiles and bombs . Sure we can have some tactical success, knock out some new radar sites or hit suspected missile sites or supply depots , but that alone wont win the war


The plan was similar to what we did in Venezuela decapitation of government and military, and uprising by the people . they said it would take up to 6 weeks at the beginning . Looks to me, like that was the intent . SInce it didnt work out, they have to go to plan B . But they never had the resources ready to go . Now they are still applying pressure , but have to wait until plan B can go into effect. I think we wont see anything major until after the midterms

Bigfoot said:

I have "Let's Make a Deal" fatigue.

Iran wouldn't even abide by a deal that was very favorable to them.
Everybody already knows that by now. Duh.

WTF is President Trump doing? This is not the time for "Art of the Deal" stuff.
It's time for more bombs and missiles. IMHO

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It’s TACO Tuesday!

Not sure I really buy this, but here it is


President Trump had on Monday announced he agreed to pause planned Iran strikes, which were supposedly going to resume Tuesday, because UAE & Saudi Arabia asked him to as they said the sides are getting close to a deal.

However, Pentagon officials have told The New York Times they urged halting of strikes because of intelligence shows Iran has grown more effective at tracking US air operations and strengthening its air defenses, making the potential for significant aerial losses by the US a greater likelihood in any new major campaign in Iran's skies.

"Based on my respect for the above mentioned Leaders, I have instructed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, The Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Daniel Caine, and The United States Military, that we will NOT be doing the scheduled attack of Iran tomorrow, but have further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump described that the Arab states requested the delay because "serious negotiations are now taking place, and that, in their opinion, as Great Leaders and Allies, a Deal will be made, which will be very acceptable to the United States of America, as well as all Countries in the Middle East, and beyond."

But in a fresh report titled "Trump Threatens Iran and Then Pulls Back, All in the Same Day" - The NY Times pushed back with the following:

Iran has used the ceasefire to successfully dig out all bombed ballistic missile sites, making them fully operational again. Iran also moved a large number of new mobile launchers across the entire country and adjusted tactics for any resumption of strikes, per a US military official. Iranian commanders studied US fighter jet and bomber flight patterns with close Russian and Chinese help. The recent downing of an F-15E and groundfire striking an F-35 revealed American flight tactics had become "too predictable."

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While kinetic operations have been paused since Trump declared a ceasefire on April 8, Tehran was apparently treating the diplomatic timeout as a massive engineering and re-arming window. US officials have on several occasions hinted at this reality, as has Trump himself at times.

To complicate any future American target lists, the Iranian military has also reportedly dispersed a massive fleet of new mobile missile launchers across the entire country, completely overhauling their deployment tactics ahead of any potential resumption of US strikes.

In essence, despite the US touting total aerial superiority in the 38-days of initial bombing, Tehran has effectively neutralized the impact of the initial air campaign. If or when the ceasefire officially collapses, Washington could be looking at a heavily upgraded, highly adaptable adversary.

Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for Iran's Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, has this week declared that Iran was "prepared for all scenarios," as cited in state IRIB


I believe its far more likely a logistical matter. after assessing the recent engagements , the brass realized they would require far more weapon systems then previously thought and the cupboard isnt bare but theres not enough at the moment to conduct a 6 or ten month bombing campaign


The U.S. currently builds about 7 to 8 Tomahawk missiles per month. While manufacturer RTX signed contracts to scale up to 1,000 per year (about 83 per month), doing so will take several years. Each missile takes 18 to 24 months to complete due to complex components and propulsion system bottlenecks


The United States can currently produce about 50 to 200 cruise missiles per month across all platforms, though this output is rapidly expanding. The actual monthly yield depends heavily on the specific missile model and whether the defense industrial base is operating on peacetime acquisition limits or emergency wartime footing.
CBS News

The United States builds approximately 40 to 42 ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles per month. Lockheed Martin, the sole manufacturer, produces these missiles at a rate of roughly 500 units per year.


The United States currently builds about 50 to 60 Patriot missiles per month. However, under recent multi-billion dollar agreements with the Pentagon and contractors like Lockheed Martin and Boeing, the U.S. is actively ramping up manufacturing to triple this output to roughly 166 missiles per month over the coming years

This has devolved into the strangest, weirdest, most illogical military confrontation I have ever seen in my lifetime. Nike* the bastards and get it over with.
Robin
*Nike (mythology) - Wikipedia
Or

"

Im sure Israel will step up to the plate and be the spoiler and continue bombing...2 weeks will tell.....

"

"Multiple reports have indicated that U.S. negotiators believe that Iran has committed to giving up its nuclear ambitions and its highly enriched uranium as a part of a broader peace deal with President Donald Trump."

Removing the enriched uranium “dust” will be an enormous undertaking.
I think it will be like the cleanup at WTC with the added issues of being underground and radioactive

JaguarJaguarGolf said:

Removing the enriched uranium “dust” will be an enormous undertaking.
I think it will be like the cleanup at WTC with the added issues of being underground and radioactive

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My understanding is that because Iran swore it would never leave the country, there is a face saving provision where it will be de-enriched but they get to keep it.

Which, I guess, is good enough, as long as we are present and can verify that through the entire process.

Basically you just have to mix it with a bunch of depleted uranium and then it's back to being normal stuff and it would be just as hard to get it back to 60% as it would be to start from scratch with fresh stuff.

Looks like the bombing has begun

holdover said:

Looks like the bombing has begun

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Well, 2 mine laying speedboats and one SAM site isn't much of a target set. Even France could pull that off and they I think I heard they already surrendered some weeks ago.

Steal2B said:

Well, 2 mine laying speedboats and one SAM site isn't much of a target set. Even France could pull that off and they I think I heard they already surrendered some weeks ago.

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It was early reports. Sounded like
Attacks were just beginning,cut me a little slack. It's not like we didn't attack them twice before during negotiations

""

There are headlines claiming iran wants 24 billion as part of the agreement. Not sure it's true. Even if it is I find it hard to believe Trump will agree to that given that money will be used to restart their program all over again and support terror networks in the middle east. Obama was (rightly) criticized for giving iran 2 billion so I can't see trump giving 24 billion.

tirwin1 said:

There are headlines claiming iran wants 24 billion as part of the agreement. Not sure it's true. Even if it is I find it hard to believe Trump will agree to that given that money will be used to restart their program all over again and support terror networks in the middle east. Obama was (rightly) criticized for giving iran 2 billion so I can't see trump giving 24 billion.

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Frozen assets are returned, they are not given! The world doesn't run on pissy R vs D spin.

holdover said:

It was early reports. Sounded like
Attacks were just beginning,cut me a little slack. It's not like we didn't attack them twice before during negotiations

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Less than 5 minutes after you posted I saw your post and immediately re-checked the scope. The scope was actually identified on multiple sources well before 9am with your post at 9:06.

Maybe instead of whining, look for better sources.

I initially saw the scope from multiple common sources quite awhile before I saw your post and I really checked to see if things amped up, but ... no ... all the early reports, Middle East press and CENTCOM statements were current and accurate.

On the other hand, with the current realities of news click bait and fake news, it is a pain in the ass to try to get accurate / timely reporting and even major news media has to "update" early reporting. I also am starting to see that many mainstram sources are either biased or practice a deception by omissions.

tirwin1 said:

There are headlines claiming iran wants 24 billion as part of the agreement. Not sure it's true. Even if it is I find it hard to believe Trump will agree to that given that money will be used to restart their program all over again and support terror networks in the middle east. Obama was (rightly) criticized for giving iran 2 billion so I can't see trump giving 24 billion.

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There are multiple sources citing press from Iran indicating the deal (as of a few hours ago) included releasing 24 billion in Iranian frozen assets (half now half later after certain conditions were met) out of what Iran claims was 100 billion of frozen assets. So far, details of the current agreement language are all sourced from Iran. (Not hearing about the usual leaks from unnamed sources from the State Department, allies, or West Wing)

Initially Iran demanded 125+ billion from the US taxpayers as reparations for damages caused by 2026 attacks and it appears no reports have used wording or synonyms of reparations in the most current draft.

Mosinitis said:

Frozen assets are returned, they are not given! The world doesn't run on pissy R vs D spin.

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i would say the american deaths caused directly or indirectly by iranian terrorists are worth an even 24 billion. So we'd be square!

It was almost done, but looks bad now. Who knows what to believe

tirwin1 said:

i would say the american deaths caused directly or indirectly by iranian terrorists are worth an even 24 billion. So we'd be square!

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They weren't killing our school girls. Iranian airliner flight#655 and Minab School for girls attacked by U.S. resulted in 460 innocent civilian deaths just in these 2 incidents.
U.S. hasn't apologized for either. ..... and how many more died in our air strikes.