Saltwater60
20×102mm Vulcan
This may have been true at one time but it is currently not true. Democrats so far out number republicans in this state it’s not even funny. I’ll explain the logic and number below to my post.
Right now with 88% reporting Hochul has 3.55 million votes.
Blakeman has 2.34 million votes.
That is a difference of 1.21 million votes. That means Blakeman to win needs about 33% more votes than he has now from Hochuls pool of voters. That’s a lot.
Now let’s break down the number of gun owners in NYS. It’s projected that we have about 20% of the homes in NYS that own guns. That is households. There are 7.8 million households in NYS. That means about 1.56 million gun owners in NYS. This could be a bit higher if there are multiple gun owners in homes. This is hard to track, but often only the man owns guns.
There are 12.3 million registered voter in NYS and we have been averaging about 61% voter turnout. BTW that is the average for the USA or slightly higher than the average. This means we can’t really count on a higher turnout. So that is about 7.5 million voters that will come out. The party registration breakdown is as follows:
Democrat 5.8 million registered at 47.5%
Republican 2.8 million registered at 22.5%
Independents are 3.2 million registered at 22.7%
Other is a very small number at 3.2% registered.
We are already outnumber by a greater than 2:1 factor just by party. If Bmakeman gets more than half her votes we’re already ahead.
The 2024 election results were analyzed by party turnout and the results below are as follows:
Democrats had 65% voter turnout
Republicans had 74% voter turnout
Independents/unaffiliated had 56% turnout.
Republicans turnout in a higher percentage so that works in our favor.
Nys voter rolls are purged for inactive voters if they have not voted in 5 years. I would say that makes our voter rolls fairly accurate and up to date. This means 26% of registered republicans didn’t turnout to vote in 2024. I would say that’s pretty close to as good of turnout as you’re going to get because how many died and how many left NYS in those last 5 years. I’d say that accounts for a fairly large portion of the 26% of registered republican voters not coming out. It says there are 328,000 to 415,000 people that leave NYS annually. That averages out to be 371,500 leaving annually. There are 2.8 million registered republicans and 2.34 million votes for Blakeman right now, so all we need for people to be leaving NYS is about 1/4-1/5 registered Republicans and that accounts for the 26% lack of turn out. We need 1/5 years of people leaving to be all republicans and I don’t think that’s unreasonable. Everyone I know that leaves is or would be voting conservatively.
Now we need to figure out gun ownership by party. That could be tough as there is nothing for NYS. Pew research says 44% of republicans own guns and about 20% of democrats own guns. Independents fall in the middle so I’ll average the numbers for this and add the remaining 4% to them so this might be slightly inflated. Now there is no way to know if all gun owners voted or not, but we will work the numbers.
We determined there is roughly 1.56 million gun owners in NYS and using the percentage above at 44% for R, I at 36% and D at 20%.
That means we have the following gun owners by party in NYS.
686,400 gun owning republicans
561,600 gun owning independents
312,000 gun owning democrats.
So let’s assume not a single gun owning Republican voted in the election above. This is something we know is 100% false as many of us here voted and many other gun owners I know stated they would vote.
We would need 200% more Republican gun owners in NYS to win this election. Stop perpetuating this lie.
Even let’s figure all gun owning Republicans and independents voted for Blakeman and we are still short 200,000 or more votes.
Now you can argue the numbers about how many gun owners and the percent of this or that but they would have to be so massively far off that they cant be right.
It would have to be closer to half of NYS households owning gun and I know that ain’t correct or it would have to be closer to 90% of republicans owning guns, and we know that’s not correct either. Look the numbers aren’t here in NYS for a Republican to ever win statewide any time soon. 20/26 state wide legislative seat went Democrat from what I am seeing as well.
Of course this could change as the reporting goes to 100%, but NYC isn’t done and I suspect that will only make the numbers worse for us.
Thoughts? Agreed, disagree.
Right now with 88% reporting Hochul has 3.55 million votes.
Blakeman has 2.34 million votes.
That is a difference of 1.21 million votes. That means Blakeman to win needs about 33% more votes than he has now from Hochuls pool of voters. That’s a lot.
Now let’s break down the number of gun owners in NYS. It’s projected that we have about 20% of the homes in NYS that own guns. That is households. There are 7.8 million households in NYS. That means about 1.56 million gun owners in NYS. This could be a bit higher if there are multiple gun owners in homes. This is hard to track, but often only the man owns guns.
There are 12.3 million registered voter in NYS and we have been averaging about 61% voter turnout. BTW that is the average for the USA or slightly higher than the average. This means we can’t really count on a higher turnout. So that is about 7.5 million voters that will come out. The party registration breakdown is as follows:
Democrat 5.8 million registered at 47.5%
Republican 2.8 million registered at 22.5%
Independents are 3.2 million registered at 22.7%
Other is a very small number at 3.2% registered.
We are already outnumber by a greater than 2:1 factor just by party. If Bmakeman gets more than half her votes we’re already ahead.
The 2024 election results were analyzed by party turnout and the results below are as follows:
Democrats had 65% voter turnout
Republicans had 74% voter turnout
Independents/unaffiliated had 56% turnout.
Republicans turnout in a higher percentage so that works in our favor.
Nys voter rolls are purged for inactive voters if they have not voted in 5 years. I would say that makes our voter rolls fairly accurate and up to date. This means 26% of registered republicans didn’t turnout to vote in 2024. I would say that’s pretty close to as good of turnout as you’re going to get because how many died and how many left NYS in those last 5 years. I’d say that accounts for a fairly large portion of the 26% of registered republican voters not coming out. It says there are 328,000 to 415,000 people that leave NYS annually. That averages out to be 371,500 leaving annually. There are 2.8 million registered republicans and 2.34 million votes for Blakeman right now, so all we need for people to be leaving NYS is about 1/4-1/5 registered Republicans and that accounts for the 26% lack of turn out. We need 1/5 years of people leaving to be all republicans and I don’t think that’s unreasonable. Everyone I know that leaves is or would be voting conservatively.
Now we need to figure out gun ownership by party. That could be tough as there is nothing for NYS. Pew research says 44% of republicans own guns and about 20% of democrats own guns. Independents fall in the middle so I’ll average the numbers for this and add the remaining 4% to them so this might be slightly inflated. Now there is no way to know if all gun owners voted or not, but we will work the numbers.
We determined there is roughly 1.56 million gun owners in NYS and using the percentage above at 44% for R, I at 36% and D at 20%.
That means we have the following gun owners by party in NYS.
686,400 gun owning republicans
561,600 gun owning independents
312,000 gun owning democrats.
So let’s assume not a single gun owning Republican voted in the election above. This is something we know is 100% false as many of us here voted and many other gun owners I know stated they would vote.
We would need 200% more Republican gun owners in NYS to win this election. Stop perpetuating this lie.
Even let’s figure all gun owning Republicans and independents voted for Blakeman and we are still short 200,000 or more votes.
Now you can argue the numbers about how many gun owners and the percent of this or that but they would have to be so massively far off that they cant be right.
It would have to be closer to half of NYS households owning gun and I know that ain’t correct or it would have to be closer to 90% of republicans owning guns, and we know that’s not correct either. Look the numbers aren’t here in NYS for a Republican to ever win statewide any time soon. 20/26 state wide legislative seat went Democrat from what I am seeing as well.
Of course this could change as the reporting goes to 100%, but NYC isn’t done and I suspect that will only make the numbers worse for us.
Thoughts? Agreed, disagree.
