Ukraine - Russia Conflict (Original Title: Things are heating up in the Donbass)

Drinkthekoolaid

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Not sure if anyone discussed this yet but oh shit.

Looks like another country is about to go into ww3.

www.express.co.uk

Belarus sparks war fears after sign calls for 'all males' to enlist

The Belarusian Defense Ministry announced in October that an annual check for those liable for military service would be completed by the end of 2022.
www.express.co.uk www.express.co.uk

Belarus just put their male population in draft notice.

I'm worried over this, and it's not Because belarus isn't exactly threatening, but because they are a close Russian ally and lukeshanko regularly meets with Putin and they are aligned strategically. This says more about the big picture than just Belarus.

Guys it's looking really ominous.
 
tirwin1

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Drinkthekoolaid said:
Not sure if anyone discussed this yet but oh shit.

Looks like another country is about to go into ww3.

www.express.co.uk

Belarus sparks war fears after sign calls for 'all males' to enlist

The Belarusian Defense Ministry announced in October that an annual check for those liable for military service would be completed by the end of 2022.
www.express.co.uk www.express.co.uk

Belarus just put their male population in draft notice.

I'm worried over this, and it's not Because belarus isn't exactly threatening, but because they are a close Russian ally and lukeshanko regularly meets with Putin and they are aligned strategically. This says more about the big picture than just Belarus.

Guys it's looking really ominous.
Click to expand...
Maybe, maybe not. Is this a sign of weakness on the part of the russians? Do you think the russian manpower situation is bad enough they had to grab all the males from belarus?
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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tirwin1 said:
Maybe, maybe not. Is this a sign of weakness on the part of the russians? Do you think the russian manpower situation is bad enough they had to grab all the males from belarus?
Click to expand...

No I think they're gearing up for a war with Poland and the Baltic states and/or all of NATO.

I thought I also saw elsewhere that Russia just recently began talking about FULL mobilization.



My .02 cents.
 
tirwin1

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Drinkthekoolaid said:
No I think they're gearing up for a war with Poland and the Baltic states and/or all of NATO.

I thought I also saw elsewhere that Russia just recently began talking about FULL mobilization.



My .02 cents.
Click to expand...
The russians are having a difficult time beating the ukrainians. In fact they were forced to retreat from a number of positions and have been forced to buy drones from iran. Why on earth would they expand the war to include poland or NATO? They need full mobilization just to beat ukraine.
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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tirwin1 said:
The russians are having a difficult time beating the ukrainians. In fact they were forced to retreat from a number of positions and have been forced to buy drones from iran. Why on earth would they expand the war to include poland or NATO? They need full mobilization just to beat ukraine.
Click to expand...


I think they realize they effectively are fighting NATO already. NATO is using the Ukrainians as mercenaries to do the bleeding for us.

Hell I just saw today a story that macron is shipping actual tanks to Ukraine.

I think it's likely Poland does something soon, I can see them going into western Ukraine.


If Russia really genuinely is losing I think it's more likely than not that they "escalate to deescalate" if they genuinely view this as the existential threat that they claim it to be. If that's not merely posturing and they genuinely feel that way, I would think its more likely than not nukes fly before there is a peace deal with the lines as they are now.

Poland, Belarus, the Baltics, Moldova, transnistria, the Balkans

The coil spring keeps getting compressed a little more...a little more...
 
spat

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Drinkthekoolaid said:
Not sure if anyone discussed this yet but oh shit.

Looks like another country is about to go into ww3.

www.express.co.uk

Belarus sparks war fears after sign calls for 'all males' to enlist

The Belarusian Defense Ministry announced in October that an annual check for those liable for military service would be completed by the end of 2022.
www.express.co.uk www.express.co.uk

Belarus just put their male population in draft notice.

I'm worried over this, and it's not Because belarus isn't exactly threatening, but because they are a close Russian ally and lukeshanko regularly meets with Putin and they are aligned strategically. This says more about the big picture than just Belarus.

Guys it's looking really ominous.
Click to expand...
The real question is "can he hang on to power if he institutes a draft".

As I understand it Belarus isn't exactly happy about his leadership now. How many of their sons and daughters need to die before they just get rid of him.
 
spat

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Drinkthekoolaid said:
No I think they're gearing up for a war with Poland and the Baltic states and/or all of NATO.

I thought I also saw elsewhere that Russia just recently began talking about FULL mobilization.



My .02 cents.
Click to expand...
A war with NATO (and a war with Poland *is* a war with NATO) would end very very quickly.

It would end in either nuclear holocaust, or the utter destruction of the Russian military in very short order.

Imagine Desert Storm, but where the weapons are already all in place.
 
Mosinitis

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Mike Morrell has a show in the early hours on CBS radio, "Intelligence Matters" . The whole purpose of that show is to repair CIA image. Sometimes I listen to it during early morning drives. If I met him in person, would be hard to resist not to spit in his face.

 
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tirwin1 said:
The russians are having a difficult time beating the ukrainians. In fact they were forced to retreat from a number of positions and have been forced to buy drones from iran. Why on earth would they expand the war to include poland or NATO? They need full mobilization just to beat ukraine.
Click to expand...

Well they wouldnt really be expanding it. Neither Belarus or Ukraine are NATO members, Belarus is just an Allie of the Russians, as are the Chechen's which have troops in Ukraine .So long as they didn't attack Poland or the Baltic states its fair game. They dont bring much to the table anyway. they always counted on Russia for defense.
 
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spat said:
A war with NATO (and a war with Poland *is* a war with NATO) would end very very quickly.

It would end in either nuclear holocaust, or the utter destruction of the Russian military in very short order.

Imagine Desert Storm, but where the weapons are already all in place.
Click to expand...

Russia wants no part of a third world war. Its those sick twisted power hungry pedophiles in DC. Russia learned a few hard lessons this year, #1 her generals were full of shit .Number 2 they dont have the capacity to overwhelm NATO in an All out war.
 
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From what I understand , the recent attacks on the energy grid in Ukraine forced the Ukraines to pull back a large number of air defense assets from the front to protect the citys . Obviously there are gaps in the defense that the Russians have been exploiting . they have have been useing those cheap Iranian drones that they modified to use up the air defense missiles . and it seems to be working . they have been useing limited air attacks on the front to good effect.

The US is sending over patriot missiles at 2 m per missile to kill decoys that cost less than 10K recently they knocked out a bunch or air defense launchers by forceing them to shoot drones and once they got a fix on the location sent in artillery or x caliber hyper missles to kill them

I know who will run out of air dense missiles first.

The other act of desperation is sending in 50 Bradley's when they really need tanks . As far IFV Bradleys are at the top of the list But they will not do well over there. because the doctrine and training do not exsist. they are part of a combined arms team . They are going to be thrown into battle as anti tank units against BMP 2's and T72's and they are going to fail. Lets say 3 a week are damaged or destroyed . in ten weeks thats over 50% losses. and thats being conservative .

Dont get wrong Im not knocking the Bradly, its awesome , but if used improperly out of desperation by un trained troops , Well, its not going to go well.
 
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ArmedCorgi said:
The Russians are well versed in scorched earth doctrine.
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look, the only ones pushing for a nuclear war are the ones driving this conflict.

The russians are justified to knock out american j2's and awacs global hawks and recon planes flying over the battle field . Were the the ones risking a nuclear war, gambling that the Russians wont do it. And they wont unless NATO jumps in
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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holdover said:
look, the only ones pushing for a nuclear war are the ones driving this conflict.

The russians are justified to knock out american j2's and awacs global hawks and recon planes flying over the battle field . Were the the ones risking a nuclear war, gambling that the Russians wont do it. And they wont unless NATO jumps in
Click to expand...

I really don't like how NATO keeps incrementally creeping in more and more

First it was training and intelligence.
Then it was javelins, man portable AT and AA.
Then it was m777 artillery
Then it was himars and other mobile rockets.
Then it was patriots and other AA missile batteries
Now it's going to be light tanks and Bradley's. (France is sending wheeled armor with 105mm anti tank cannons and Germany is sending their version of Bradley's)


What's next, main battle tanks and attack jets?

If there are people who don't realize or aren't bothered by this incremental creep into the war they should be paying attention, it's not going to end well.
 
spat

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Drinkthekoolaid said:
I really don't like how NATO keeps incrementally creeping in more and more

First it was training and intelligence.
Then it was javelins, man portable AT and AA.
Then it was m777 artillery
Then it was himars and other mobile rockets.
Then it was patriots and other AA missile batteries
Now it's going to be light tanks and Bradley's. (France is sending wheeled armor with 105mm anti tank cannons and Germany is sending their version of Bradley's)


What's next, main battle tanks and attack jets?

If there are people who don't realize or aren't bothered by this incremental creep into the war they should be paying attention, it's not going to end well.
Click to expand...
NATO will provide whatever is necessary to stop Putin from winning.

And they will not provide enough for Ukraine to win.

They are very carefully walking that titerope.

Unless they screw up, or the political situation changes drastically things will continue as they are for the foreseeable future.

NATO could utterly destroy the Russian military in a week if they wanted. The Ukranians couldn't hold out for more than a couple months without continuous NATO support.

NATO very much likes the meat grinder that they have build. They are not only destroying the Russian ability to wage war, they are destroying even the ability for Russia to rebuild it in the future, and the Ukrainians are doing all the dying.

When Putin is done throwing conscripts into the bloodbath Russia will be sitting on a demographic bomb bigger than tsar Bomba. They will be done for generations.
 
spat

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holdover said:
Like they were after WW2?
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Russia of 2020 is nothing like the Soviet Union of 1939.

The world of 2020 is nothing like the world of 1939 either, and Putin doesn't seem to grasp that concept.

During WWII the soviets had endless waves of young men to throw at problems. They no longer do.

In the 1920s most families had half a dozen or more kids, they didn't expect them all to survive. Now having even 2 is above average.

Bodies used to be cheap and disposable. They no longer are. Birth control is one major cause of that, and retirement plans are the other.


The Russian fertility rate in 2020 was 1.5 children per woman on average. That's a disaster if you *don't* throw a generation away in a counterproductive war.

In 1930 the Russian fertility rate was 6.
 
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tirwin1

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holdover said:
Like they were after WW2?
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Much much worse. The Russians were in terminal decline before the invasion. Every male from 18-35 (prime reproduction years) they lose only accelerates the problem. They may still win but they will suffer tremendous losses in the process. A pyrrhic victory at best.
 
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As bloody as this war is, it pales in comparsion to WW2. A hundred thousand soviets captured after the first few weeks of Barbrarosa in one pocket alone! Millions dead by the end of the first year. Millions, let that number sink in, barely even 10% .

They invaded Ukraine with a peace time army, it wasnt enough. but it aint over either. right now, every Russian manufacturing company is producing war materiel. 24 hours a day 7 days a week. Ukraine is producing jack shit . and if you think the demographics in Russia willbe bad, Ukraine will be a lot worse.

If Russia wins It will have pretty much destroyed Ukraine and own everything up to the dniper river ( I dont think they will go further unless they have to.)

If you look at the map of Ukraine they hardly have any armor units left. 50 Bradleys arnt going to do it.

thier artillery has been getting smashed and now the Russians are focusing on their air defense if they can attrit it enough it open up the air game to the Russians , even locally . Ukraine has infantry but Russia has more. (Not in theater )

Russia cant quit. and they sure are not going to surrender to Ukraine . What it comes down to is which side will be ground down first , The Ukraine army or the Russian economy.

Ukraine doesn't have shit left right now , the Russian economy is doing Ok for the moment

Im curious, what do you think a Ukrainian victory would look like?
 
tirwin1

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A minimal Ukrainian victory would be restoration of the pre-war borders. A better one would be the recapture of the territory lost in previous invasions. The ultimate would be that plus reparations. I'd bet the only realistic one is the return to pre invasion borders but even that would require massive battlefield losses by the Russians and probably a change in leadership.

The longer this goes on the greater the chance of a Korean war type of situation where a cease fire is called but no official peace. Both sides too exhausted to move the other.
 
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