We need a new doom and gloom thread. It has been a while.

[GOPerfect]

There will be a day that the power grid will go out in this country and when it does:

0-6 hours — No electricity, traffic lights , cell phones etc

6- 24 hours - Food starts to spoil , first panic buying at grocery stores , no ATM's

24-48 hours -Grocery shelves empty fast. Fuel shortages spread •Cell towers lose backup •Internet mostly down. Water contamination

2–3 days — Localized disorder •No refrigeration → food unsafe •No fuel → travel stops •Cash scarce •Looting begins , pure chaos •Police stretched thin •Medical supply shortages •Vulnerable populations at risk (elderly, dialysis, insulin-dependent.

3–5 days — Infrastructure collapse zones •Water systems failing widely •Fires everywhere •Hospitals triage crisis •Mass movement of people seeking resources •Armed self-protection rises , violence all around

5–7 days —Pure Chaos •No food •Medical system collapse in areas •Curfews - Martial Law •FEMA

Migration from urban centers In one week it will be like The walking dead without zombie

 

[Steal2B]

Hopefully most on this fine forum have taken some measures to address these short term (a week or two) concern.

The long game gets more complicated and as years pass, fewer people have experience with all the skill sets needed for long term survival.

The challenge for many would be long term self / group sufficiency and survival from both the elements and the various forms of human predators. In some scenarios, successful survival could be a team sport.

 

[tc556guy]

You're not framing the issue in terms of geography. We've had power outages such as you describe that covered multiple states and it didn't spin out of control to the extent that you describe. Not saying that local disorder is a good thing, but the problem will be if outside places aren't able to stream assistance into an affected area. As long as that aid is available, things will stay under control. If there's an incident that covers the entire continent, that'll be a much more significant problem

 

[spat]

You're not framing the issue in terms of geography. We've had power outages such as you describe that covered multiple states and it didn't spin out of control to the extent that you describe. Not saying that local disorder is a good thing, but the problem will be if outside places aren't able to stream assistance into an affected area. As long as that aid is available, things will stay under control. If there's an incident that covers the entire continent, that'll be a much more significant problem

It really comes down to perception. Whether aid is coming isn't really relevant. What matters is whether people *believe* aid is coming.

If they think things will return to "normal-ish" within a few weeks or even months, then they will behave. But, if enough people think that things are going to stay uncivilized for a long time, then they're going to damn well act uncivilized.

 

[tirwin1]

The power grid going out is one of my concerns under AI. Imagine if an AI successfully was able to link up and control all power stations in this country and then just decided to turn off all the power. Then simultaneously release a virus far deadlier than COVID. Now that's doom and gloom.

 

[tc556guy]

It really comes down to perception. Whether aid is coming isn't really relevant. What matters is whether people *believe* aid is coming.

If they think things will return to "normal-ish" within a few weeks or even months, then they will behave. But, if enough people think that things are going to stay uncivilized for a long time, then they're going to damn well act uncivilized.

Ive seen people acting uncivilized while help was on the ground providing assistance. I've seen people shooting at the people who were rendering help. You're right that most people will behave longer if they believe that help is being mobilized.

 

[Robin]

Urban, sub-urban, and rural.
Robin

 

[Saltwater60]

Ive seen people acting uncivilized while help was on the ground providing assistance. I've seen people shooting at the people who were rendering help. You're right that most people will behave longer if they believe that help is being mobilized.

Agreed no think if the power grid is down because of a storm people think the government is around the corner to help. If there is a mass outage because of a terror attack or computer attack with no timeline for repair panicking will set in fast.

 

[tc556guy]

Agreed no think if the power grid is down because of a storm people think the government is around the corner to help. If there is a mass outage because of a terror attack or computer attack with no timeline for repair panicking will set in fast.

I think that in any mass outage scenario it's going to be incumbent on authorities and the utilities to communicate information to the public in a timely manner with frequent updates. The public will need to see efforts to restore utilities underway, even if they themselves aren't restored immediately. If you look at events like Katrina or Helene, the bigger issue was the lack of progress on timely restoration work that was a bigger issue after the initial event happened.

 

[Robin]

Around here I'd bet there are a lot of people that would quietly ride things out under that scenario, for months if need be, and God help those that would fuck with them.
Robin

 

[C3D]

There's very few places in NY where refugees from our cities that would overwhelm within a few months of a TEOTWAKI. I don't care how defensible or isolated you think your property is, or how many guns you've stockpiled. The numbers are not on your side.

 

[tc556guy]

There's very few places in NY where refugees from our cities that would overwhelm within a few months of a TEOTWAKI. I don't care how defensible or isolated you think your property is, or how many guns you've stockpiled. The numbers are not on your side.

Its a trade-off. We live in a highly populated part of the country. With lots of resources. You could trade off the highly populated part of that equation for a low populated area with few resources that can just as easily be populated by people leaving the urban and suburban areas trying to compete with you for the scarce resources in your area. Who wins in either scenario?

 

[Robin]

There's very few places in NY where refugees from our cities that would overwhelm within a few months of a TEOTWAKI. I don't care how defensible or isolated you think your property is, or how many guns you've stockpiled. The numbers are not on your side.

No offense intended C3D but, bullshit.
Robin

 

[GOPerfect]

There's very few places in NY where refugees from our cities that would overwhelm within a few months of a TEOTWAKI. I don't care how defensible or isolated you think your property is, or how many guns you've stockpiled. The numbers are not on your side.

Not too mention, by the time most people figure out that it is real, and serious, it will be too damn late for them.

 

[tc556guy]

No offense intended C3D but, bullshit.
Robin

How many parts of the state are not within one gas tanks worth of driving from one of the bigger cities. Buffalo. Syracuse. Albany. NYC and the entire Long Island.

 

[C3D]

No offense intended C3D but, bullshit.
Robin

You're entitled to your views, but put some more text on them. How do you intend to defend 24/7 against repeated waves of hundreds of marauders, all armed, with ex-military guys leading them, and with no regard for human life and desperate? When they are probably joined by former police and equipped with ex-police and ex-mil hardware?

 

[Steal2B]

Repeated waves of hundreds of armed ex-military guys and former police equipped with military hardware?




I would strive to not be a target or of interest to an organized para-military organization and if noticed, be prepared enough to encourage them to consider a softer and safer target.

 

[GOPerfect]

There's very few places in NY where refugees from our cities that would overwhelm within a few months of a TEOTWAKI. I don't care how defensible or isolated you think your property is, or how many guns you've stockpiled. The numbers are not on your side.

There are many reasons why I left the populated areas of NY. What you speak of here, yep... It was on the list. Where my house was in Tonawanda, was NOT defend-able. Not in the least.

When we began our search down south, a defendable area was a must.

I could hold my won where I am for a while. Off the beaten path, people would need to seek out the area to know where to travel around.

 

[C3D]

Repeated waves of hundreds of armed ex-military guys and former police equipped with military hardware?

View attachment 279730
View attachment 279731

I would strive to not be a target or of interest to an organized para-military organization and if noticed, be prepared enough to encourage them to consider a softer and safer target.

Those groups will systematically plunder every acre of the state. Doesn't matter whether you think you're a worthy target or not. Very few places in New York will not be ravaged.

 

[Steal2B]

Those groups will systematically plunder every acre of the state. Doesn't matter whether you think you're a worthy target or not. Very few places in New York will not be ravaged.

Have a little experience spending time and surviving in plundered God foresaken hell holes. In the ugliest scenarios, survival depends in part on luck, thinking about what's the worst thing that could happen next, continuously evaluating options and not being stupid.

There are nearly an infinite number of variables but lack of civilization / scarce resources / mother nature will likely be a greater threat for most than the marauding hoards.

If they survive, don't be suprised if those lawless "groups" evolve in to competing tribal gangs .... cannibalizing themselves to some degree until they dwindle or a regional equilibrium takes place.

In the near term, one could even envision elements from paramilitary forces of the surviving "state" could potentially be more abusive or threatening than the marauding war lord tribal gangs.

 

[Robin]

Simple. I don't see it going down that way.
Robin

 

[Criticalt]

Im pretty sure many around my area wouldn't even notice for a few days. I live in the middle of a Swartsentruber Amish community. No electricity, no plumbing, no cheating. They literally live like its 300 years ago. Our house is ALMOST completely off grid. We have one cable wrapped around one wire coming to the house for internet. There was no way around it. We tried satellite but it was garbage 9 years ago, its probably improved. Back then it was $60 a month for 50GB. I eat 50GB in a few hours!!
Anyways, im much more concerned that people will think our home is an abandoned hunting camp. In that case we will absolutely surprise them with extreme aggression!!
If the marauding gangs of ex military and cops comes, I guess we will die ankle deep in hot brass.
We are far from any big city, like 50 miles far....Erie PA. Im not to worried about the ex military from Jamestown NY which is about 20 miles away. Other than that, just cows. Our county is one of the largest, but less than 200,000 people....and most are crammed into Jamestown, Fredonia, and Dunkirk.
I have a ton of experience in survival and off grid living. But, as some might know, im not going to make it long in a survival situation due to medical issues. Not too long after I stop my biologic medicine, I MIGHT have issues. I have spent a LOT of time in the hospital from 2020-2023. But, my last hospital stay was Dec 26-29 2023. So, you never know. I can tell you this, there isnt going to be many more dangerous people in a SHTF scenario than ones who may not have long.

 

[spat]

Ive seen people acting uncivilized while help was on the ground providing assistance. I've seen people shooting at the people who were rendering help. You're right that most people will behave longer if they believe that help is being mobilized.

There are plenty of people who act uncivilized the minute they think a cop isn't actively looking at them.

 

[spat]

Im pretty sure many around my area wouldn't even notice for a few days. I live in the middle of a Swartsenttuber Amish. No electricity, no plumbing, no cheating. They literally live like its 300 years ago. Our house is ALMOST completely off grid. We have one cable wrapped around one wire coming to the house for internet. There was no way around it. We tried satellite but it was garbage 9 years ago, its probably improved. Back then it was $60 a month for 50GB. I eat 50GB in a few hours!!
Anyways, im much more concerned that people will think our home is an abandoned hunting camp. In that case we will absolutely surprise them with extreme aggression!!
If the marauding gangs of ex military and cops comes, I guess we will die ankle deep in hot brass.
We are far from any big city, like 50 miles far....Erie PA. Im not to worried about the ex military from Jamestown NY which is about 20 miles away. Other than that, just cows. Our county is one of the largest, but less than 200,000 people....and most are crammed into Jamestown, Fredonia, and Dunkirk.
I have a ton of experience in survival and off grid living. But, as some might know, im not going to make it long in a survival situation due to medical issues. Not too long after I stop my biologic medicine, I MIGHT have issues. I have spent a LOT of time in the hospital from 2020-2023. But, my last hospital stay was Dec 26-29 2023. So, you never know. I can tell you this, there isnt going to be many more dangerous people in a SHTF scenario than ones who may not have long.

Starlink is world's better than anything available 10 years ago.

We got one just to have as a backup for our other provider (there is a $5/month "standby" plan).

 

[Cooolone]

Ummmm, not really going to worry much. If the zombie apocalypse comes, then I'll be ready! I moved to a community that has plenty of defenseless bait for the zombies and I'll be able to leech off of those, whether willingly or not, lolz...

Otherwise, societal collapse would pretty much provide the same environment. Don't have basements here, have a ridiculously sized attic, but on the move, cleared out a lot of old stock and would need to rebuild some resources right now.

Maybe it would be more effective to hit the range and sharpen those skills, hahahaha, as I've neglected those too since leaving NY, go figure!?

Haven't ventured into a LGS yet because I know what it's going to cost me, especially here that allows NFA, Class III items, etc. Fostech shotty, some silencers, high cap mags... All coming soon!

 

[Criticalt]

Starlink is world's better than anything available 10 years ago.

We got one just to have as a backup for our other provider (there is a $5/month "standby" plan).

Ive heard its pretty good. The problem is that our closest neighbor and I paid a lot of money to get the lines run to our homes. We have no cell service, and no cable access. At the time internet did not go out this far. We paid $2400 to have poles installed and lines put up. The company, Windstream at the time, now Kinetic offered us their highest possible speed internet, upgraded as it came, for $40 a month for 10 years....unlimited bandwidth. At the time 9 years ago, it was supposed to be 10mbps. It actually never went above 6mbps. This is why the $40 offer. About 2 years ago Kinetic boosted it to 100mbps, but ive never seen over 60mbps. But its light years better than 6mbps. Now we can watch any steaming tv absolutely perfectly. We have about 13 months left of the $40/month internet...and phone. After that we might look around depending on the cost of Kinetic. They have been really good as far as support.

 

[spat]

Ive heard its pretty good. The problem is that our closest neighbor and I paid a lot of money to get the lines run to our homes. We have no cell service, and no cable access. At the time internet did not go out this far. We paid $2400 to have poles installed and lines put up. The company, Windstream at the time, now Kinetic offered us their highest possible speed internet, upgraded as it came, for $40 a month for 10 years....unlimited bandwidth. At the time 9 years ago, it was supposed to be 10mbps. It actually never went above 6mbps. This is why the $40 offer. About 2 years ago Kinetic boosted it to 100mbps, but ive never seen over 60mbps. But its light years better than 6mbps. Now we can watch any steaming tv absolutely perfectly. We have about 13 months left of the $40/month internet...and phone. After that we might look around depending on the cost of Kinetic. They have been really good as far as support.

60mb is fast enough for most people, despite the marketing folks trying to convince everyone they need gigabit or better.

If you've got 60mb and it's reliable and it's reasonably priced, then keep it.

We're on 100MB fixed wireless from our primary provider (fixed wireless looks like satellite, but the dish is pointed at a tower across the valley).

They're pretty reliable and $100/mo. But their equipment is on the same tower as the cell serivces across the valley, so when it does go down, we usually lose phone service as well (whole tower is down).

We work from home so we got the Starlink for a backup. Doesn't matter what the fiber seeking backhoe the construction guys are running does, Starlink works if all the infrastructure within 100 miles is wiped out.

It's tempting to just ditch the current provider all together and go exclusively Starlink, but that wouldn't be as reliable as having both. And the other provider doesn't have a $5/month standby plan.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

It really comes down to perception. Whether aid is coming isn't really relevant. What matters is whether people *believe* aid is coming.

If they think things will return to "normal-ish" within a few weeks or even months, then they will behave. But, if enough people think that things are going to stay uncivilized for a long time, then they're going to damn well act uncivilized.

I've said this before, most people will behave for as long as they believe things will return to normal.

Once they come to their own conclusion that this time it's different and it's not going back to normal, that's when their true colors will show.

 

[GOPerfect]

I've said this before, most people will behave for as long as they believe things will return to normal.

Once they come to their own conclusion that this time it's different and it's not going back to normal, that's when their true colors will show.

Yep. They will, for the most part, behave if they think law enforcement is still active.