US and Iran conflict thread. ( merged threads)

[Steal2B]

U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) on X

U.S. Navy and Air Force fighter jets conducted strikes tonight on 10 Iranian military targets at multiple locations in and near the Strait of Hormuz for Iran's drone attack on M/T Kiku.

x.com

That was in response to an IRGC attack on a tanker



Well, since then IRGC claims they've attacked US Bases in Bahrain and Kuwait




CENTCOM REPORTED NO CASUALTIES OR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE FROM IRGC ATTACKS ON BAHRAIN AND KUWAIT. IT APPEARS IRGC MISSLES AND DONES WERE INTERCEPTED.

This tit for tat is so frequent it seems to barely break in to the mainstream media news headlines.

 

[tirwin1]

Depends on how close the intelligence says they really were to a bomb.

I *think* they were still a year or more out, unless they had some secret centrifuge cascade we didn't know about.

It doesn't take long to go from 60% to 90% for a bomb, but you do need a functional cascade to do it, and that would take a year or two to rebuild after Midnight Hammer, assuming they could get the parts.

It's possible there was some intelligence that suggested they might have had another facility somewhere unknown and we could have been worried they were going to be able to finish one soon, so we were under a time constraint.

If we were confident they didn't have one, I bet Trump would have to waited till after midterms.

I'd like to think Trump was acting on valid intelligence and not just assuming this would go quick and easy like venezuela.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

This is very discouraging and disappointing where we have allowed ourselves to be boxed in.

We're starting to follow a similar pattern of misjudgments that Russia followed in Ukraine.

We need to shit or get off the pot. Either annihilate them, or seek peace and GTFO. No more of this proportional response trap nonsense. There are so many factions in Iran right now that the irgc may be acting autonomously on their own agenda regardless of orders from their government. They may have an interest in pin prick attacks doing just enough to get a response to derail the negotiations.

We make make a discussion all day long if attacking Iran in the first place was a good idea or a mistake. But the reality is that we are here And we are in it, and we need to stop with the threats and empty threats and political nonsense. No more "we're going to bomb you tomorrow" if we don't actually mean it. We are wasting our integrity currency where leaders and people will no longer believe us when we say something.

This is turning into a mess quickly.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

I'd like to think Trump was acting on valid intelligence and not just assuming this would go quick and easy like venezuela.

Actually...
I'm not so sure.

I heard a wild theory that actually checks a lot of boxes, and seemed to align with timeline and events.

Essentially what was leaked/rumored was that we only intended to do enough of a quick strike campaign to give Iran a bloody nose and upset the regime stability. The rub was that the Intel led to the conclusion the people would revolt and take back their country. The plan was to actually use the US military to break Mahmoud Amadinajad out of his house arrest. We literally did. We dropped a small precision bomb outside the front door of his house to kill the irgc guards and blast the door open. Ahmanadiajad escaped and broke out of house arrest. The plan was to negotiate with him and have him take over the country. Apparently he had a change of heart and decided not to go along with the US Israeli plan and now he's in hiding.

So the quick plan to destabilize the Iranian government, overthrow the regime and then further degrade their nuke program went and shit all over the fan.

So the US accomplished none of those goals, the IRGC is pissed and frankly they don't give a shit they probably are absolutely loving this conflict now because it gives them strength and legitimacy for their citizens. They are not in a hurry to seek for peace, they are using their leverage and strength. And anytime the US seems to try to give this conflict the Irish goodbye and excuse ourselves Israel won't let it end.

To give a metaphor, Now the US is there left holding the bag as the cops show up and Israel is in the background throwing rocks at the cops making the situation worse preventing any sort of leniency or negotiating.

It's turning into a completely misguided shitshow.

 

[Defilade]

Peace will not happen. A certain Country won't allow it. The shall cause another False Flag.

 

[Bigfoot]

Peace will not happen. A certain Country won't allow it. The shall cause another False Flag.

Why should I even consider Naftali Bennett's opinion as credible?

I'm always very suspicious of anything you post and your motivations in doing so.
Your credibility here has been completely ruined a long time ago, but here we are...

Your post history suggests a clear agenda, so I can't take anything you post seriously.
I should put you back on my ignore list and stop wasting my time with your bullshit. lol

 

[fresch]

Remember, "weapons of mass destruction"; ok now you are president and are told that the crazy are on the verge of a nuke, what would you do?
The communist told us way back what and how they would take over and are almost done in doing it. They have the demonrat party, the schools, the media, judges, and we get homosexuality, no guns for all, judges pushing the agenda, schools teaching constitution bad, blacks manipulation, etc, .
The U.S.A. is in deep trouble, females in charge (run on feelings not reality), people who don't know what sex/gender they are; some on this board.
Wake up!

 

[tirwin1]

Actually...
I'm not so sure.

I heard a wild theory that actually checks a lot of boxes, and seemed to align with timeline and events.

Essentially what was leaked/rumored was that we only intended to do enough of a quick strike campaign to give Iran a bloody nose and upset the regime stability. The rub was that the Intel led to the conclusion the people would revolt and take back their country. The plan was to actually use the US military to break Mahmoud Amadinajad out of his house arrest. We literally did. We dropped a small precision bomb outside the front door of his house to kill the irgc guards and blast the door open. Ahmanadiajad escaped and broke out of house arrest. The plan was to negotiate with him and have him take over the country. Apparently he had a change of heart and decided not to go along with the US Israeli plan and now he's in hiding.

So the quick plan to destabilize the Iranian government, overthrow the regime and then further degrade their nuke program went and shit all over the fan.

So the US accomplished none of those goals, the IRGC is pissed and frankly they don't give a shit they probably are absolutely loving this conflict now because it gives them strength and legitimacy for their citizens. They are not in a hurry to seek for peace, they are using their leverage and strength. And anytime the US seems to try to give this conflict the Irish goodbye and excuse ourselves Israel won't let it end.

To give a metaphor, Now the US is there left holding the bag as the cops show up and Israel is in the background throwing rocks at the cops making the situation worse preventing any sort of leniency or negotiating.

It's turning into a completely misguided shitshow.

I think that was entirely plausible. I believe Trump expected the Iranians to rise up and overthrow the government. If we had gone in 2-3 months earlier that might have happened. But the regime killed everyone who protested and the rest of the population is now cowering (with good reason). If our plan was based on one guy breaking with the regime we were awfully optimistic on its chances. Despite our clear military superiority we can't keep the strait of hormuz open. The MOU was an attempt to save face but giving iran access to billions of dollars (either through oil sales or frozen assets) is a huge mistake.

We are stuck. The present situation can't last but there is no reason to believe more bombing will make things better. Indeed it could actually become a worse quagmire. I think Trump knows that and will resist it while trying to put lipstick on the pig that is the MOU.

 

[Saltwater60]

This is very discouraging and disappointing where we have allowed ourselves to be boxed in.

We're starting to follow a similar pattern of misjudgments that Russia followed in Ukraine.

We need to shit or get off the pot. Either annihilate them, or seek peace and GTFO. No more of this proportional response trap nonsense. There are so many factions in Iran right now that the irgc may be acting autonomously on their own agenda regardless of orders from their government. They may have an interest in pin prick attacks doing just enough to get a response to derail the negotiations.

We make make a discussion all day long if attacking Iran in the first place was a good idea or a mistake. But the reality is that we are here And we are in it, and we need to stop with the threats and empty threats and political nonsense. No more "we're going to bomb you tomorrow" if we don't actually mean it. We are wasting our integrity currency where leaders and people will no longer believe us when we say something.

This is turning into a mess quickly.

This is exactly what I was thinking reading through to catch up on what’s happening

 

[fresch]

Wait for chi-na to give them drones in mass quantities.
You see what Russia Russia Russia is getting and will soon be getting an ass whipping (vlad could nuke as last save face) with the Ukraine taking Russian lands.
Get in smoke em, regime change now the only way out, then baby sit.

 

[Beerman]

I thought we almost had a deal.

Fears in Strait of Hormuz as tanker struck after Iran warned ships to turn back

Iran attacked a Singaporean cargo ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday — hours after the regime threatened “violators” who didn’t obey its heavily-controlle…

nypost.com

We’ll have a deal when Tehran gets tired of mocking Trump daily. I don’t anticipate a quick decision.

This is very discouraging and disappointing where we have allowed ourselves to be boxed in.

We're starting to follow a similar pattern of misjudgments that Russia followed in Ukraine.

We need to shit or get off the pot. Either annihilate them, or seek peace and GTFO. No more of this proportional response trap nonsense. There are so many factions in Iran right now that the irgc may be acting autonomously on their own agenda regardless of orders from their government. They may have an interest in pin prick attacks doing just enough to get a response to derail the negotiations.

We make make a discussion all day long if attacking Iran in the first place was a good idea or a mistake. But the reality is that we are here And we are in it, and we need to stop with the threats and empty threats and political nonsense. No more "we're going to bomb you tomorrow" if we don't actually mean it. We are wasting our integrity currency where leaders and people will no longer believe us when we say something.

This is turning into a mess quickly.

The Trump Who Cried Wolf. It won’t end well.

 

[fresch]

Only way.

 

[Defilade]

Why should I even consider Naftali Bennett's opinion as credible?

I'm always very suspicious of anything you post and your motivations in doing so.
Your credibility here has been completely ruined a long time ago, but here we are...

Your post history suggests a clear agenda, so I can't take anything you post seriously.
I should put you back on my ignore list and stop wasting my time with your bullshit. lol

You are sleep walking. For someone who stated "question everything" you sure haven't one bit. Do I seriously have to break out the laundry list of broken promises from Trump that everyone voted for? You cant give that a pass and just scrug your shoulders. Wake up! Credibility? Agenda? I'm the one questioning everything. You dont like your World view challenged. Maybe I will continue to post the laundry list again and ask you got any answers?? At this point I think its wise for you to put me back on ignore.

 

[Bigfoot]

You are sleep walking. For someone who stated "question everything" you sure haven't one bit. Do I seriously have to break out the laundry list of broken promises from Trump that everyone voted for? You cant give that a pass and just scrug your shoulders. Wake up! Credibility? Agenda? I'm the one questioning everything. You dont like your World view challenged. Maybe I will continue to post the laundry list again and ask you got any answers?? At this point I think its wise for you to put me back on ignore.

"Question everything and trust no one" - is something I post every once in a while. I believe that's a good course of action, a smart way to go about things.

I question why you cherry-pick shitty no-name who cares what they say ultimately unreliable sources. In a lame attempt to prove your retarded preconceived bullshit. I think you lie to yourself to get the results that you want and then bring that crazy bullshit here to this forum.

I question your IQ, being a flat earther and all.
Your persistence in proving your delusions on an internet forum is very telling... IMO

Then there's the whole 5g bullshit plus the stupid nanobot thing... lol
I can not take your posts, opinions, or sources seriously.
It's really that simple.

What I mean by question everything, is search for the truth, no matter what the truth may be. Not a podcaster who fits a preconceived answer/agenda. I mean actual facts that lead to the truth. That's the difference between someone like me and you. And that's also why I know that the Earth isn't flat and we don't have nanobots/robots in our ah fuck it... lol

 

[Celt]

I haven't read much of this thread lately so not sure if it's already been covered, but I have to believe that people within our own government are pushing Iran to not agree to a peace deal with us. People like Obama and his ilk must be working behind the scenes all in an effort to make Trump and the Republican Party look bad for upcoming elections. They don't want this war to be resolved before the midterms.

 

[fresch]

Where's john swift boat?

 

[Saltwater60]

"Question everything and trust no one" - is something I post every once in a while. I believe that's a good course of action, a smart way to go about things.

I question why you cherry-pick shitty no-name who cares what they say ultimately unreliable sources. In a lame attempt to prove your retarded preconceived bullshit. I think you lie to yourself to get the results that you want and then bring that crazy bullshit here to this forum.

I question your IQ, being a flat earther and all.
Your persistence in proving your delusions on an internet forum is very telling... IMO

Then there's the whole 5g bullshit plus the stupid nanobot thing... lol
I can not take your posts, opinions, or sources seriously.
It's really that simple.

What I mean by question everything, is search for the truth, no matter what the truth may be. Not a podcaster who fits a preconceived answer/agenda. I mean actual facts that lead to the truth. That's the difference between someone like me and you. And that's also why I know that the Earth isn't flat and we don't have nanobots/robots in our ah fuck it... lol

Well said. Trust no one, question everything. Search for the truth.
I’ll add the truth can be slippery and hard to find these days. I’m seriously not sure what to believe. It’s getting to the point where you have to almost see it to believe it.

 

[Saltwater60]

You are sleep walking. For someone who stated "question everything" you sure haven't one bit. Do I seriously have to break out the laundry list of broken promises from Trump that everyone voted for? You cant give that a pass and just scrug your shoulders. Wake up! Credibility? Agenda? I'm the one questioning everything. You dont like your World view challenged. Maybe I will continue to post the laundry list again and ask you got any answers?? At this point I think its wise for you to put me back on ignore.

You’re not wrong on Trump’s broken promises. I’ll add what President doesn’t have a bunch of them? Does that mean we should ignore them, well no, not at all.
I’m not happy with this war, I’m not happy with the proof or that we keep going at it with them. I want cheap gas, I want inflation to drop, I want the republicans to get elected again. All of this is in jeopardy because the Iran war. November is coming fast and people will walk away from the republicans over gas prices and grocery store prices 100%.
We need a strategy to win or get out. People do t realize how bad Iran and China are and yes they are working together. Do we have a right to do what we are doing? Thats up for debate, but if they had nukes or were trying to get them I think we are. What would be nice if if the back stabbing EU and other countries who would be eliminated actually helped here and there with something, anything. Ukraine even. Freaking Poland, Turkey, and other countries in much greater danger are doing nothing. Why is it always left to us?

I don’t like the war, but maybe it’s necessary, I truly don’t know, but I guess I’d rather bomb than finding out a nine was on the way because Trump told me he wasn’t going to start a war to win an election. Again, I’m not saying I trust this narrative or it’s right, but I’d rather be safe than sorry.

 

[tirwin1]

I haven't read much of this thread lately so not sure if it's already been covered, but I have to believe that people within our own government are pushing Iran to not agree to a peace deal with us. People like Obama and his ilk must be working behind the scenes all in an effort to make Trump and the Republican Party look bad for upcoming elections. They don't want this war to be resolved before the midterms.

I would not be surprised at all.

 

[Defilade]

"Question everything and trust no one" - is something I post every once in a while. I believe that's a good course of action, a smart way to go about things.

I question why you cherry-pick shitty no-name who cares what they say ultimately unreliable sources. In a lame attempt to prove your retarded preconceived bullshit. I think you lie to yourself to get the results that you want and then bring that crazy bullshit here to this forum.

I question your IQ, being a flat earther and all.
Your persistence in proving your delusions on an internet forum is very telling... IMO

Then there's the whole 5g bullshit plus the stupid nanobot thing... lol
I can not take your posts, opinions, or sources seriously.
It's really that simple.

What I mean by question everything, is search for the truth, no matter what the truth may be. Not a podcaster who fits a preconceived answer/agenda. I mean actual facts that lead to the truth. That's the difference between someone like me and you. And that's also why I know that the Earth isn't flat and we don't have nanobots/robots in our ah fuck it... lol

"Question everyone"? Find the Truth? Yeah that's my motto chump. You ain't questioning dick! You are just following and agreeing on Bullshit Narratives. You are a Trust the Planner! Because Trump has done the complete opposite of his agenda with multiple things he is no longer MAGA. No More New Wars!! What happened with that? Hey Why is that idiot Biden and his Administration still walking around? Auto-Pen??? Why no lockups? clearly illegal AF! How about one of the most treasonus things ever done was to let in Millions of illegals and give them our tax money and yet Mayorkas is still walking around. Why??? You going give him a pass? Wars, Autopen, Illegals these are Major issues. I can give a host of others that have been shoved away in never never land. Keep beliveing your side is Good and other side is bad bullshit! It's why we are where we are. It's to cause infighting and divison and not find the truth. You have to question everything and trust no-one. You are not doing that because your team (as was mine) is in there. Stop with the "Trust the Plan" bullshit! You are not MAGA!

 

[Celt]

I'll add, I guarantee China and Russia are pushing Iran not to make a deal with us because they don't want Trump in office. They want a pliable left-wing socialist to run the show to continue the demise of the American way.

 

[Steal2B]

The Tit for Tat is a political policy not a military strategy

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

I haven't read much of this thread lately so not sure if it's already been covered, but I have to believe that people within our own government are pushing Iran to not agree to a peace deal with us. People like Obama and his ilk must be working behind the scenes all in an effort to make Trump and the Republican Party look bad for upcoming elections. They don't want this war to be resolved before the midterms.

Completely agree. I think they would LOVE to see $8 gas here and gas shortages and rationing. That would be a wet dream for the left to campaign on.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

I'll add, I guarantee China and Russia are pushing Iran not to make a deal with us because they don't want Trump in office. They want a pliable left-wing socialist to run the show to continue the demise of the American way.

Obvious, rhetorical question...
Do you think the IRGC benefits more from Peace, or continuing conflict?



I know my opinion.


The IRGC absolutely benefits from conflict. Strategically they have more to gain than lose by continuing this untill more global pain is felt. They are gaining legitimacy and support inside Iranians. The Iranians are clearly past the point where they would have risen up internally and over thrown the IRGC. It's not happening.
if I was the IRGC I would just play the game with Trump to pretend to keep negotiating and this minor tit for tat retaliation cycle. Keep the strait closed, use my leverage to bring global commerce and trade to a halt and weild my power.
If I'm the IRGC, why wouldn't they just keep stringing Trump along to negotiate all the while calculating in the background how much more time until the global oil reserves are depleted and everyone all at once says "oh shit" we no longer have enough oil for our economy. And even if we give in to IRGC demands to get the strait reopened it will take 6 weeks for tankers to transit and arrive at refineries.

So with that being said, every single day this drags on with the strait closed, the clock is ticking and IRGC gains more and more leverage.

I predict, we are going to have to give concessions to Iran to end this and get the strait opened and Iran will ultimately end up developing a nuke regardless. They will be even more emboldened to do so now.

We should not be in this position. Any advisors that advocated for this should be removed from their positions.

 

[Celt]

They benefit

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

They benefit

I didn't mean to single you out at all, just because you had made a smart observation in your post I quoted.

 

[Steal2B]

Iran Judiciary Chief: U.S. Assets Will Be Seized if Accessible -

Iran's Judiciary Chief, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei, said Iranian courts have issued rulings against a number of U.S. officials accused...

wanaen.com

Iran will likely rely on Maritime Interdictions to actively seize unarmed commercial shipping vessels they believe to be tied to US or allied interests operating in or near the Strait of Hormuz.

While the US military has previously intercepted actions as such, tankers and commercial cargo remain Iran’s primary physical targets for leverage or retaliation under the guise of a legal civil seizure.

 

[spat]

"Question everyone"? Find the Truth? Yeah that's my motto chump. You ain't questioning dick! You are just following and agreeing on Bullshit Narratives. You are a Trust the Planner! Because Trump has done the complete opposite of his agenda with multiple things he is no longer MAGA. No More New Wars!! What happened with that? Hey Why is that idiot Biden and his Administration still walking around? Auto-Pen??? Why no lockups? clearly illegal AF! How about one of the most treasonus things ever done was to let in Millions of illegals and give them our tax money and yet Mayorkas is still walking around. Why??? You going give him a pass? Wars, Autopen, Illegals these are Major issues. I can give a host of others that have been shoved away in never never land. Keep beliveing your side is Good and other side is bad bullshit! It's why we are where we are. It's to cause infighting and divison and not find the truth. You have to question everything and trust no-one. You are not doing that because your team (as was mine) is in there. Stop with the "Trust the Plan" bullshit! You are not MAGA!

Except you *don't* question everything.

You latch on to every conspiracy that goes against the conventional wisdom without questioning anything about it.

That's not "questioning everything". That's just being contrarian.

To actually question things you need to understand them and the alternative and see which makes more sense. You don't. You just assume the official line is wrong and whatever crack induced theory opposes it must be right.

Now, I certainly don't trust the official story, ever, but *sometimes* it's correct. If you don't accept that, then you've just traded one untrustworthy authority for another.

 

[spat]

View attachment 285028

Iran Judiciary Chief: U.S. Assets Will Be Seized if Accessible -

Iran's Judiciary Chief, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei, said Iranian courts have issued rulings against a number of U.S. officials accused...

wanaen.com

Iran will likely rely on Maritime Interdictions to actively seize unarmed commercial shipping vessels they believe to be tied to US or allied interests operating in or near the Strait of Hormuz.

While the US military has previously intercepted actions as such, tankers and commercial cargo remain Iran’s primary physical targets for leverage or retaliation under the guise of a legal civil seizure.

With what ?

To actually seize a naval vessel you need to be able to board it. That requires manned ships or aircraft. Iran no longer has the ability to field either.

 

[TEOTWAWKI inc.]

With what ?

To actually seize a naval vessel you need to be able to board it. That requires manned ships or aircraft. Iran no longer has the ability to field either.

..."if accessible"

You can look but you can't touch.