Thoughts on economic conditions

[shoot2much]

Thanks GOPerfect. Much appreciated. I can respect a guy who can have a real conversation instead of defaulting to bullshit defensiveness because of some random on the internet. If you're ever in Southern NY, let me know, and I'll buy you a few beers.

Back to economics: this is tough. I've been thinking about it a lot. On one hand, at the most basic level, cash is king. Right now, I'm aggressively investing cash into the market. We're seeing great upward trends. Here's the kicker: until we don't. Does "until we don't" mean SHTF or just a bubble bursting? No idea. I see it in two fundamental categories. Money matters or money doesn't matter. Money matters in all but the most SHTF scenarios. Even in a recession, money matters to everyone, whether we like it or not. This is one of those, "if ya can't beat 'em, join 'em" situations. People are so against society and all of that, but what buys our food, ammo, guns, water, clothes, shelter? Money. If anything, people that believe that money is bullshit and the economy is GOING to collapse, they should be the ones hoarding money to buy shit that will help them later. From their perspective, the joke is on everyone else. They're using "worthless" peices of paper to buy tangible goods for their future. We're all trying to fatten our 401ks or hoping social security benefits still exist when we retire (us younger folks, that is).

Food for thought, I guess.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Yeah I don't buy into the FAS. Janes Defence Weekly and CIA factbook are typically your best sources for information even though their numbers are never close to FAS. But I do know Dimona supposedly has made enough material for 250 to 400 weapons. Every blue moon some Dimona scientist will spill the beans in some tell-all book; but the media never gives it much airplay. I also don't buy into FAS's ongoing position that Israel keeps all weapons in stockpile and that they cannot be used and are slated to be dismantled. One tell-all book said that during the Yom Kippur war that they had 50 in the air ready to melt Cairo and all military targets in Egypt; but that since Israel won handily she didn't need to use them.

I think they briefly touch on this in the book/movie "sum of all fears"

 

[Phazer]

Gold and silver won't help during a crisis. You cannot eat either and nobody is going to trade for something that is not useful. Gold and silver will only be valuable after the crisis is nearly over and it will only serve to get you things you need to survive or make you a target to those who don't have any. Precious metals are a way to preserve wealth in the return of normal. If normal does not return hopefully you can melt the stuff and make bullets out of it.

Precious metals will be useful when fiat currency collapses. When you need a wheelbarrow full of paper bills to buy a orange, the one ounce of gold will rise with inflation and "hold" its value. Once real staples are in short supply, then precious metals will lose value until a real, non-barter, economy can be reestablished.

By what I've read about fiscal collapses, the don't happen all at once. During the downslide, inflation is a problem. When a shift to metals occurs, it will be necessary to have less valuable metal (i.e. silver) for small transactions and higher value metal (i.e. gold) for larger transactions.

When barter becomes all that we've got left, you will need: Food, fuel, water, clothing, firearms, ammunition, or a skill that you can trade for some of the above.

Personally, I've considered buying a large supply of cigarettes and vacuum packing the cartons for long-term storage. I don't smoke. But, those addicted to nicotine will certainly find value in cigarettes once they are in short supply.

 

[Snappo]

I think they briefly touch on this in the book/movie "sum of all fears"

You have a good memory - way better than mine. I don't really remember the details of all those old Clancy books; but remember loving them. My favorite was the one with the 3 perspectives. A tank team, a B52 team, and something else. My brother lives in Tel Aviv and we have heated disagreements all the time about the place. He thinks it's the promised land, and I think being in USA is the promised land. IMHO that place is destined to become dust at some point. I think Israel's weak point is that they have a few crappy old diesel subs and that's it. No carrier groups either.

 

[Snappo]

Precious metals will be useful when fiat currency collapses. When you need a wheelbarrow full of paper bills to buy a orange, the one ounce of gold will rise with inflation and "hold" its value. Once real staples are in short supply, then precious metals will lose value until a real, non-barter, economy can be reestablished.

By what I've read about fiscal collapses, the don't happen all at once. During the downslide, inflation is a problem. When a shift to metals occurs, it will be necessary to have less valuable metal (i.e. silver) for small transactions and higher value metal (i.e. gold) for larger transactions.

When barter becomes all that we've got left, you will need: Food, fuel, water, clothing, firearms, ammunition, or a skill that you can trade for some of the above.

Personally, I've considered buying a large supply of cigarettes and vacuum packing the cartons for long-term storage. I don't smoke. But, those addicted to nicotine will certainly find value in cigarettes once they are in short supply.

I'm not sure that stuff lasts all that long. At the end of the day it's just plant matter and some chemicals. I'm more into the ammo loading.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

You have a good memory - way better than mine. I don't really remember the details of all those old Clancy books; but remember loving them. My favorite was the one with the 3 perspectives. A tank team, a B52 team, and something else. My brother lives in Tel Aviv and we have heated disagreements all the time about the place. He thinks it's the promised land, and I think being in USA is the promised land. IMHO that place is destined to become dust at some point. I think Israel's weak point is that they have a few crappy old diesel subs and that's it. No carrier groups either.

I think that book you are referring to is maybe "red storm rising" ? I also really enjoyed that

Edit, come to think of it, I want to say the trigger for that war was something like the Soviet economy was about to tank and they didn't think there was enough food from that years harvest.

 

[spat]

I assume you knew this was coming...

So you'll abandon your oath to protect and serve the public in such a situation that requires it? You'll help your family at the expense of said oath and public safety? I assume the answers are "yes and yes" but it's interesting to hear. Makes you wonder what the point of the oath is.

Again, I am not trying to antagonize you nor am I trying to stir up shit, but just curious from your point of view what you think about all of the moving parts involved in such a scenario. It really makes you think about what is going through peoples' heads when they sign the dotted line on a military or police contract, doesn't it? It does for me. Kind of a 'have your cake and eat it too' situation.

When SHTF, the government is likely to be the #1 danger for the public. Not following orders from Albany hardy seems to me to be abandoning an oath to protect the public.

 

[ArmedCorgi]

I think that book you are referring to is maybe "red storm rising" ? I also really enjoyed that

Edit, come to think of it, I want to say the trigger for that war was something like the Soviet economy was about to tank and they didn't think there was enough food from that years harvest.

It sounds like "Red Storm Rising". It was their largest oil refinery which was destroyed in a terrorist attack (Muslim wouldn't cha know it) and they subsequently needed to invade the middle east. But before doing so, had to neutralize NATO. It's one of my favorite books!!! "Without Remorse" is up there too.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

It sounds like "Red Storm Rising". It was their largest oil refinery which was destroyed in a terrorist attack (Muslim wouldn't cha know it) and they subsequently needed to invade the middle east. But before doing so, had to neutralize NATO. It's one of my favorite books!!! "Without Remorse" is up there too.

Ok I remember now. I think I'm getting parts confused with the other similar book. I think that one was "the bear and the Dragon" may be?

 

[tirwin1]

This article is another reason I am both very nervous about the future and astonished that the stock market hasn't crashed yet. Global debt trends are insane.
The IMF Sounds An Alarm As Global Debt Hits A Record $152 Trillion Or 225% Of World GDP | Zero Hedge

 

[GOPerfect]

The WORLD is running out of money as well as the promise to repay. This is not just in America. This is world wide. The residents of the Earth are screwed!

 

[Phazer]

You have a good memory - way better than mine. I don't really remember the details of all those old Clancy books; but remember loving them. My favorite was the one with the 3 perspectives. A tank team, a B52 team, and something else. My brother lives in Tel Aviv and we have heated disagreements all the time about the place. He thinks it's the promised land, and I think being in USA is the promised land. IMHO that place is destined to become dust at some point. I think Israel's weak point is that they have a few crappy old diesel subs and that's it. No carrier groups either.

As I've told many people, "I would like to visit Israel some day soon...before it's radioactive."

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

As I've told many people, "I would like to visit Israel some day soon...before it's radioactive."

Better hurry....

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

The WORLD is running out of money as well as the promise to repay. This is not just in America. This is world wide. The residents of the Earth are screwed!

You can only print money for so long, before you devalue your currency too far.

You can only take on so much debt until you have no realistic way to ever pay it

I think we're already past that point and it's a matter of time before "the bills are due"

 

[shoot2much]

Someone hit the reset button. Let me go hoard some more PMs first though.

 

[Phazer]

You can only print money for so long, before you devalue your currency too far.

You can only take on so much debt until you have no realistic way to ever pay it

I think we're already past that point and it's a matter of time before "the bills are due"

Exactly!

As I've told many a stupid Liberal (but...I wax redundant): Every time the government prints another dollar bill that is backed by nothing, every dollar in your wallet is worth a bit less.

 

[GOPerfect]

Exactly!

As I've told many a stupid Liberal (but...I wax redundant): Every time the government prints another dollar bill that is backed by nothing, every dollar in your wallet is worth a bit less.

This is a concept that many, many people do not understand. I read an article a while back from a woman that was being sued by about a dozen different companies/businesses. She was going around on a spending spree. Apparently, she had no money in her checking account but figured the bank would clear the checks. She is claiming that the bank is too blame, they did give her an ample supply of checks. Her response was, I have an entire checkbook full of checks.

Stupid people all around us!

 

[ArmedCorgi]

This is a concept that many, many people do not understand. I read an article a while back from a woman that was being sued by about a dozen different companies/businesses. She was going around on a spending spree. Apparently, she had no money in her checking account but figured the bank would clear the checks. She is claiming that the bank is too blame, they did give her an ample supply of checks. Her response was, I have an entire checkbook full of checks.

Stupid people all around us!

That kind of stupid, is on purpose.

 

[Robin]

Yep, just like the fool in chief, and or the hundreds of thousands of small town, village, county officials that take 'grants' from state and federal entities, like its not our money from a different pocket, for some stupid project, usually socialistic in nature, then justify it with "its a grant, if we don't use it someone else will". They've spent our money, our children money, and now are working to make tax slaves of our grand children. There WILL be a day of reckoning, its speed and impact grow exponentially with every passing day. Doubt it at your own peril.
Robin

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Yep, just like the fool in chief, and or the hundreds of thousands of small town, village, county officials that take 'grants' from state and federal entities, like its not our money from a different pocket, for some stupid project, usually socialistic in nature, then justify it with "its a grant, if we don't use it someone else will". They've spent our money, our children money, and now are working to make tax slaves of our grand children. There WILL be a day of reckoning, its speed and impact grow exponentially with every passing day. Doubt it at your own peril.
Robin

Like in one of our many "summers of recovery" king Obama was given a few trillion dollars to stimulate the economy with shovel ready jobs, that actually weren't shovel ready at all and trillions of dollars were wasted???

 

[Snappo]

Exactly!

As I've told many a stupid Liberal (but...I wax redundant): Every time the government prints another dollar bill that is backed by nothing, every dollar in your wallet is worth a bit less.

Sort of. You need enough currency for your population so if your population grows you need to print more. But the currency needs to be backed by something. I know right now humans think the big deal is precious metals but why can't what backs money be something else so that your currency is fully equal to that commodity? I hate that we have $1T in currency floating, but Fort Knox and NY Federal Reserve only hold like 40% of that value in gold. Why can't it be 100%? What USA could do is release that messed up coal-lockup that Bubba Clinton did (The Utah Coal Lockup: A trillion dollar Lippo payoff?), and trade $1T to $3T of coal to South Africa for diamonds.

 

[shoot2much]

This is a concept that many, many people do not understand.

I think they get it, but they just aren't able to apply the concept to other things in life. For instance, if you've ever made tomato soup from the can, you know the concept.

 

[Snappo]

Like in one of our many "summers of recovery" king Obama was given a few trillion dollars to stimulate the economy with shovel ready jobs, that actually weren't shovel ready at all and trillions of dollars were wasted???

I wish we had the option of someone with Ovomit or JFK's silver tongue and an ivy legal background but a conservative set of views running for us in 2016. Trump is a buffoon and Hitlery is a criminal and a liar. And that tard from the LP can't even operate a globe or a history book. We really got screwed this time around. And we could have had 8 years of Romney if he didn't pick Lyin Ryan as his sidekick. McCain did the same meltdown, picking Juggs "I can see Russia from here" Palin. He should have picked Guiliani.

 

[tirwin1]

The size of the debt is problem enough. What I want to know is - who owns/holds all that debt? Because that will give a glimpse into who is going to get hurt when the crisis comes. You could not pay me to invest in any long term bonds from any issuer (govt or private) at the moment.

 

[Phazer]

The size of the debt is problem enough. What I want to know is - who owns/holds all that debt? Because that will give a glimpse into who is going to get hurt when the crisis comes. You could not pay me to invest in any long term bonds from any issuer (govt or private) at the moment.

Americans, through bonds held in pension funds and 401K plans, hold the majority of the United States' debt.

 

[Snappo]

The size of the debt is problem enough. What I want to know is - who owns/holds all that debt? Because that will give a glimpse into who is going to get hurt when the crisis comes. You could not pay me to invest in any long term bonds from any issuer (govt or private) at the moment.

Depends on the country. In USA, the debt is owned by the government and their bonds are the IOU to pay it back plus interest. The cash that floats out there that we know and love is owned by the Federal Reserve. This organization is owned by a groups of banks that must be based in USA and they own a form of stock, but they cannot buy more stock, sell stock, trade stock, or use that stock as collateral. While I have read that this "corporation" is not a for-profit entity, I also read that for every dollar that is in circulation this organization is given a 5% per year interest payment by Congress. Even though they are beholden to congress, there is a whole structure of boards of directors at each bank, and there is some central board called the Federal Open Market Committee. For whatever reason, this extremely complicated and somewhat fluid architecture must have been way better than the First Bank of the US and the Second Bank of the US; which I had read were strife with corruption.

Debt is not controlled by this Federal Reserve. That's totally up to Congress. For a long time Alan Greenspan said fiat currency was logical, but then at the end of his career he said we should go back on the gold standard. He never did say where all that gold would come from though.

If US Bonds are backed by gold, then it should be fairly safe if you are going to own anything that doesn't help in a zombie apocalypse. Federal Reserve had an audit in 2015 and at that time there were 6,350 tons of gold in NYC. The Fort Knox audit this year came back with 4,582 tons in that location. So all in, almot 11,000 tons. So they are backed by over a half trillion dollars worth of gold.

The debt is kind of a scam. The talking heads babble on about it being $20 trillion; but I think it's more like $80 trillion based on a USA Today article that explained it in real terms. Not to scare anyone; but their view of unsecured obligations is overwhelming. Check out these 2 articles. And note: DNC and GOP both think that they can run this debt up forever as long as the GDP keeps going up. I don't pretend to understand macro-economics enough to know if that's unrealistic but it feels unrealistic to me personally.

Government's mountain of debt - USATODAY.com

U.S. funding for future promises lags by trillions - USATODAY.com

 

[dsdmmat]

Precious metals will be useful when fiat currency collapses. When you need a wheelbarrow full of paper bills to buy a orange, the one ounce of gold will rise with inflation and "hold" its value. Once real staples are in short supply, then precious metals will lose value until a real, non-barter, economy can be reestablished.

By what I've read about fiscal collapses, the don't happen all at once. During the downslide, inflation is a problem. When a shift to metals occurs, it will be necessary to have less valuable metal (i.e. silver) for small transactions and higher value metal (i.e. gold) for larger transactions.

When barter becomes all that we've got left, you will need: Food, fuel, water, clothing, firearms, ammunition, or a skill that you can trade for some of the above.

Personally, I've considered buying a large supply of cigarettes and vacuum packing the cartons for long-term storage. I don't smoke. But, those addicted to nicotine will certainly find value in cigarettes once they are in short supply.

For a short period of time maybe but, there will come a point in time that you have your PMs and cannot even give them away. That point is going to be when the gas pumps are dry and the grocery shelves are empty. So I would venture a guess that the PMs are going to buy you 1 week longer. After that put them in your bunker and wait until the new dictator has established a country with an economic system. Then you can use it to get smuggled out of dodge.

I have some PMs but, not enough to retire or buy a house. I am comfortable in with the level I have stashed. I have a few ounces of sterling that I picked up a 6 bucks an ounce during my jewelry making days. My PMs are going to be used after the rebuilding. I mainly have invested in other metals which will be more useful in the times of trouble.

 

[ArmedCorgi]

For a short period of time maybe but, there will come a point in time that you have your PMs and cannot even give them away. That point is going to be when the gas pumps are dry and the grocery shelves are empty. So I would venture a guess that the PMs are going to buy you 1 week longer. After that put them in your bunker and wait until the new dictator has established a country with an economic system. Then you can use it to get smuggled out of dodge.

I have some PMs but, not enough to retire or buy a house. I am comfortable in with the level I have stashed. I have a few ounces of sterling that I picked up a 6 bucks an ounce during my jewelry making days. My PMs are going to be used after the rebuilding. I mainly have invested in other metals which will be more useful in the times of trouble.

Copper and lead baby.

 

[Phazer]

Keep in mind when the politicians talk about the government "investing" in anything. Government "investing" means: More Taxes.

Even my middle-school age daughter understands that the government has no money that it has not already taken from the people.

 

[Robin]

EVERY government 'investment' has strings. It starts at the top, trickle down tyranny.
Robin