Bigfoot
.577 Tyrannosaur.
US and Iran conflict thread. ( merged threads)
- Thread starter TEOTWAWKI inc.
- Start date
Bigfoot
.577 Tyrannosaur.
I am a patriot, gun loving republican and love my country as much as anyone, but I’m pretty sure our omnipotent , truthful government and president didn’t think this one through enough and are starting to realize it quickly.YMMV
Robin
.577 Tyrannosaur.
When possible I don't decamp til I find a strategically superior position. I'm still on board and have never seen a country dismantled so quickly.
Robin
Robin
stokes
.338 Win Mag
Seems to me that no matter how many hi ranking radicals get snuffed they have an endless supply of radical figure heads to replace them. Its like a snake that can keep growing its head back after its cut off.
Robin
.577 Tyrannosaur.
Yes, but they are less and less effective and probably less respected by the people they are to direct, reaching a point where there is no direction.
Robin
Robin
A very in depth analysis.
datarepublican.substack.com
Conclusion:
THE CONVERGENCE
The petrodollar architecture under challenge, the China deterrence calculation, the Russia-Iran axis fracturing, the free-rider calculation of every capable ally, and the 47-year appeasement timeline are not separate stories. They are the same story.
The world order that produced the post-Cold War period of relative stability rested on American willingness to use force to maintain it. That willingness was tested repeatedly against Iran and found wanting. Countries that benefit from that order — Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, India — calculated over 47 years that the US would handle it. They were correct. America handled it. Again.
The honest Day 17 synthesis: the bombing campaign is most likely to produce IRGC-Stan — a more explicitly militarized Iran with a weakened economy, a covert nuclear program reconstituting in the background, and a Supreme Leader chosen by generals rather than clerics. The correct comparison is not the JCPOA — which was already dead and had failed on its own terms, with Iran enriching to 60% and expanding its proxy network throughout the deal’s lifetime. The correct comparison is the pre-war status quo: Iran at nuclear threshold, proxies fully functional, Hormuz a permanent hostage, and no viable diplomatic path remaining. Against that baseline, even IRGC-Stan represents a significant degradation of Iranian capability. Whether that degradation holds over a 10-year horizon is the real question.
Trump’s “America First” is not, at its core, an isolationist doctrine. It is a renegotiation of a 70-year bargain in which the United States built a system that everyone benefits from and nobody else wants to pay to maintain. The question this war raises — and that no narrative fully answers — is whether a world order maintained by one country against the free-riding of all others is sustainable.
Data Analysis of the State of the Iranian Conflict on March 16, 2026
An attempt to OSINT the current state of affairs
datarepublican.substack.com
Conclusion:
THE CONVERGENCE
The petrodollar architecture under challenge, the China deterrence calculation, the Russia-Iran axis fracturing, the free-rider calculation of every capable ally, and the 47-year appeasement timeline are not separate stories. They are the same story.
The world order that produced the post-Cold War period of relative stability rested on American willingness to use force to maintain it. That willingness was tested repeatedly against Iran and found wanting. Countries that benefit from that order — Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, India — calculated over 47 years that the US would handle it. They were correct. America handled it. Again.
The honest Day 17 synthesis: the bombing campaign is most likely to produce IRGC-Stan — a more explicitly militarized Iran with a weakened economy, a covert nuclear program reconstituting in the background, and a Supreme Leader chosen by generals rather than clerics. The correct comparison is not the JCPOA — which was already dead and had failed on its own terms, with Iran enriching to 60% and expanding its proxy network throughout the deal’s lifetime. The correct comparison is the pre-war status quo: Iran at nuclear threshold, proxies fully functional, Hormuz a permanent hostage, and no viable diplomatic path remaining. Against that baseline, even IRGC-Stan represents a significant degradation of Iranian capability. Whether that degradation holds over a 10-year horizon is the real question.
Trump’s “America First” is not, at its core, an isolationist doctrine. It is a renegotiation of a 70-year bargain in which the United States built a system that everyone benefits from and nobody else wants to pay to maintain. The question this war raises — and that no narrative fully answers — is whether a world order maintained by one country against the free-riding of all others is sustainable.
Steal2B
.700 Nitro Express
A few thoughts I have today in no order ...
Did the US make a strategic mistake to attack Iran or will this decision be proven wise? I'm no fan of Iran but I fear we got manipulated by Israel to do their work for them.
Is the petrodollar on life support?
US allies are showing themselves to be utterly impotent and effectively useless.
Will China exploit this moment for their benefit, they will likely not have a better opportunity to move on Taiwan this decade than they do right now and it's an openly stated goal of Xi to do so.
If China moves on Taiwan I think it's clear we are watching another theater of ww3 go hot.
Did the US make a strategic mistake to attack Iran or will this decision be proven wise? I'm no fan of Iran but I fear we got manipulated by Israel to do their work for them.
Is the petrodollar on life support?
US allies are showing themselves to be utterly impotent and effectively useless.
Will China exploit this moment for their benefit, they will likely not have a better opportunity to move on Taiwan this decade than they do right now and it's an openly stated goal of Xi to do so.
If China moves on Taiwan I think it's clear we are watching another theater of ww3 go hot.
I could give 2 shits about China taking over some island. I would be cheering for the freedom loving Taiwanese people but at the end of the day, it is what it is.
I absolutely do care about China getting the most important AI and semiconductor chips in the world. If China moves on Taiwan I hope Taiwan goes scorched earth and burns it all.
Vicarious
.40 S&W
Got to break some eggs to make an omelet. Give the process time to work. It took us 50 years to get this far, itll take some time to unravel the yarn.
Technologically China is more advanced than Taiwan, so this would benefit Taiwan in that respect.
This is a statement that I agree with, 100%.
I think I have mentioned this a few times on the forum.
Nope, I do not care at all.
So long as Chi-na stops there and yes the tech gets destroyed.
We see there was never a NATO so if it is wwiii we take the world and rule it.
stokes
.338 Win Mag
Ruling the world would lead to nothing but trouble. Fuck that
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
If you kill all the leaders whos left to surrender? You cant shut off the machine .
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Iran is going to be a tougher nut to crack than many people think
THE DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER JUST RESIGNED OVER THE IRAN WAR:
Joe Kent just posted his resignation letter to Trump on X.
He said Iran “posed no imminent threat to our nation.”
Said the US started this war “due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”
Called it “the same tactic the Israelis used to draw us into the disastrous Iraq war.”
This is not some random critic…
Combat veteran, 11 deployments, Gold Star husband, Trump appointee running one of the most sensitive national security roles in government.
He told Trump directly: “You can reverse course and chart a new path, or you can allow us to slip further toward decline and chaos.”
First major resignation from inside the administration over this war.
After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today.
I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.
It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC.
May God bless America.
Joe Kent just posted his resignation letter to Trump on X.
He said Iran “posed no imminent threat to our nation.”
Said the US started this war “due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”
Called it “the same tactic the Israelis used to draw us into the disastrous Iraq war.”
This is not some random critic…
Combat veteran, 11 deployments, Gold Star husband, Trump appointee running one of the most sensitive national security roles in government.
He told Trump directly: “You can reverse course and chart a new path, or you can allow us to slip further toward decline and chaos.”
First major resignation from inside the administration over this war.
After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today.
I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.
It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC.
May God bless America.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Im sure Trump and his staff read his briefings and did it anyway.
And while Our marines, seamen airmen and soldiers move into the theater, Israels army is massing on the border of Lebanon, not Iran. Not with our guys!
And while Our marines, seamen airmen and soldiers move into the theater, Israels army is massing on the border of Lebanon, not Iran. Not with our guys!
spat
.950 JDJ
The trick is to just keep eliminating them until you get one that's reasonable enough you can live with him.
Or the regime is destabilized enough to fall to a revolution or a coup.
Pretty sure we can just keep dropping Ayatollas indefinitely until we finally find one who wants to live.
Blimey
.450/400 Nitro Ex
You seem to have learned nothing from the Afghanistan or Iraq debacles. Iran is 4X the size of Iraq, 2X the population, and thoroughly mountainous. In fact, it's like Afghanistan and Iraq combined. The idea that Iran is getting dismantled is laughable, so I assume you're referring to the USA, which btw no longer has allies--as so eloquently stated by this definitely-not-small-dick-energy post by the president, who wants you to know absolutely and certainty that he does not need the help that he continually asks for. Such is the payback for shitting on America's allies for the last 14 months.
I transitioned the last of my ICE vehicles to EV last summer, so I'm insulated from this fiasco's impact at the pump. Thank you for your sacrifice.
How is their government even functioning? Why in earth do they keep meeting in groups? As soon as a cluster of them get together they get bombed. They should assume practically all signals intelligence is compromised.
Blimey
.450/400 Nitro Ex
How many regimes has the USA changed through bombing campaigns?
Blimey
.450/400 Nitro Ex
Iran is the size of western europe with 92 million people. The idea that the US can somehow target any groups of people meeting isn't even fathomable.
