When does everyone think Ammo will be back to acceptable levels

[Martydondon]

Sorry if this post is redundant and is somewhere else. Just curious what everyone's thoughts are on when ammo will be readily available again... or at least at levels in which retailers can't price gouge us to death... only asking because a friend of a friend of mine is considering "gifting" me some ammo. Should I just wait it out, I have plenty for defense but lacking a training supply... his gift isn't without compensation, so im on the fence. should I take him up on it or just wait it out and buy from an lgs in the coming months at reg price...

 

[kev74]

I'm guessing about a year.

 

[FS1040]

If Biden steals the election, never.

 

[Martydondon]

I'm guessing about a year.

I was hoping 3 to 4 months lol, should have got into reloading

 

[holdover]

Grab it and dont look back.

 

[FrankenCub]

It won't. People are paying crazy ass prices now, why go back to normal profit margins.

 

[holdover]

I was hoping 3 to 4 months lol, should have got into reloading

I just got into reloading myself, in the nick of time, even presses and reloading gear are flying off the shelves. I was going to get a Hornady or rock chucker to start, but they were gone. the only thing left were high end and lower end stuff. I ordered a Forster press, but there was a two month wait, so I cancelled and bought a Redding instead but even the high end stuff is getting scarce now. Id get something while you still can

 

[spat]

If we're lucky, 2022.

 

[holdover]

If were lucky, Trump wins and were good to go for 4 more.

 

[Acer-m14]

when they stop making it and selling to the enemy

 

[spat]

If were lucky, Trump wins and were good to go for 4 more.

I think it'll be 2022 *with* a Trump win.

With Biden in office the prognosis is much worse....

 

[Grimscale]

Seems like there's been some crises or other every other year starting a year before Trump took office.
Trump elected = no ammo
Riots = no ammo
mouse farts = no ammo
Biden elected = no ANYTHING

You would think the ammo manufacturers would have expanded by now.

Even assuming Trump retains the White House... I don't think we'll see ammo til 2023

 

[Saltwater60]

I was hoping 3 to 4 months lol, should have got into reloading

No way. It just went up another .10-.12 cents per round this week. A place that had it reliably for .50/round after Biden went to .60/round and I looked last night and it was .72/round for 9mm FMJ. That’s insane. I think we will see $1.00/round then it may start coming down. I’d say 18 months. They have back orders of a year and 1 billion in ammo. That can’t remedy over night. Also if Biden gets his way it will never be anywhere close to what it was before.

 

[Robin]

Recently an ammunition manufacturer stated they do not see an end in sight when discussing ammo and ammo parts shortage and high prices. I thought I read that article here, maybe not.
Robin

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

If we're lucky, 2022.

That's what I was thinking.

Even if the panic slows down and manufacturing picks up supplies may become more available later into 2021 but the prices will still by sky high.

It will take about a year of readily available stock to begin lower prices back to normal.

People will still be willing to pay sky high prices just to have it once it becomes available again. It will take a while to settle the market.


But alas, by that time there will be another crisis or panic all over again. The first time the kamala regime imposes an executive order taxing ammo and reloading supplies people will freak.

 

[tirwin1]

Prices will decline when supply exceeds demand. But between the democrats plans for gun control and the realization that order is breaking down (BLM/antifa riots) I don't see demand being reduced for a couple of years. As long as there is a strong 'defund the police' mentality people will believe (correctly) that personal protection is much more relevant and important. Best case in my opinion is things get so bad the left is resoundingly defeated in the 2022 elections at all levels. But I seriously doubt this will happen.

 

[dsdmmat]

The gun industry as of the 1990s has been feast or famine. Right now they are feasting. I suspect under a Biden administration it will continue. Once an administration is seen as gun friendly the famine will start.

Ammo Availability will only come back to normal when you adjust your Sense of normal.

 

[Podmonkey]

All industry insider estimates were for availability to return to relative normal in summer 2021, with prices falling 6 or so months after that. A year after the initial panic in otherwords. With a Beijing Biden presidency its probably and indefinite period.

 

[Podmonkey]

The gun industry as of the 1990s has been feast or famine. Right now they are feasting. I suspect under a Biden administration it will continue. Once an administration is seen as gun friendly the famine will start.

Ammo Availability will only come back to normal when you adjust your Sense of normal.

The idea of adjusting my "sense of normal" angers me probably beyond a rational level.

 

[nortatoga]

 

[C3D]

I don’t think anyone can predict that. All things being equal, Vista and the other major manufacturers forecast up to 18 months of supply disruption.

The wild card is what happens in DC. Will the Democraps be able to ban mail order ammo sales? Will there be a per-round ammo tax? Will ammunition for “military” calibers be banned? Will non-serialized ammo still be legal?

All of these are proposals that float around and will have a great impact on future ammo prices.

 

[Phazer]

When does everyone think Ammo will be back to acceptable levels

Immediately after people stop paying the crazy prices currently being tolerated.

 

[spat]

The idea of adjusting my "sense of normal" angers me probably beyond a rational level.

Buckle up, it's going to get a lot worse.

 

[alistair]

I'm down in Texas visiting my daughter - all gun stores down here are empty of handgun ammo and reloading supplies.

 

[libertysnake]

I think orders will stabilize probably sometime in Feb / late March. On shelves when the summer hits, maybe? I think once things pass people will calm.

 

[fnfalguy]

I think we have at least another year of this sort of market, best case. backlog has to be filled first and from A business side, the manufacturers would be foolish to add additional capacity for a relatively short term crunch and it’s not like they can add a 4th shift.

 

[Edwardteach72]

Let's just think about the fact that Vista Outdoors is reporting $1billion in ammunituon BACKLOG

 

[repete]

I don’t think anyone can predict that. All things being equal, Vista and the other major manufacturers forecast up to 18 months of supply disruption.

The wild card is what happens in DC. Will the Democraps be able to ban mail order ammo sales? Will there be a per-round ammo tax? Will ammunition for “military” calibers be banned? Will non-serialized ammo still be legal?

All of these are proposals that float around and will have a great impact on future ammo prices.

I think you nailed it! I also expect ole cumhole to kick us while we're down with some new law.

 

[Saltwater60]

I'm down in Texas visiting my daughter - all gun stores down here are empty of handgun ammo and reloading supplies.

So it’s not better in Texas huh?

 

[Saltwater60]

I think orders will stabilize probably sometime in Feb / late March. On shelves when the summer hits, maybe? I think once things pass people will calm.

Until more extreme Obama baby Biden starts pushing gun laws and no ammo sales on lone at all.