Ukraine - Russia Conflict (Original Title: Things are heating up in the Donbass)

Defilade

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Strange things are happening on the Moscow Stock Exchange. The authorities effectively stopped trading on the stock market for several weeks and were supposed to be afraid of a strong fall against the backdrop of sanctions. As they joked, they were afraid to see the depth of the bottom. Today, trading opened and instead of falling, the shares of most campaigns began to grow. What a twist.
 
spat

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ArmedCorgi said:
Also the same line of thinking that makes people think ww3 will automatically be nukes flying.
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I can't see a conflict large enough to qualify as a world war avoiding at least tactical nukes at this point.

To be big enough to be a world war, most of the worlds military assets would need to be committed.

I don't see the major powers going all in with their conventional forces without someone throwing some nukes when they start losing. Then once the first one flys, everyone else has cover.

But, I could be wrong. We did manage to keep chemical weapons mostly bottled up during WWII, so maybe people are scared enough of nukes that it wouldn't happen.
 
spat

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holdover said:
I have to say, on paper, it looked like the Russians would roll through them in no time, I expected mass surrender of Ukrainian troops.

I figured they had had enough of this homo president and NATO and why fight their own cousins? I never expected to see what Im seeing. On paper that had them beat in every aspect.

The Russians really shocked me . But as a disclaimer, I know the Russians are only using a quarter of their strength .But what I have seen so far, is terrible leadership and training. Not to say they are beat, If they continue to use mass artillery barrages and call in some more units they can still""win"" but at a serious cost to themselves.

As far as the resistance goes, they have special forces written all over it , Those guys are being lead by some of our best troops , no doubt in my mind.
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There are plenty of Ukrainians who are still familiar with the last Russian occupation.

They prefer their pets by their bedside and not on their dinner plate.
 
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holdover

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Blimey said:
Agree except I don’t think we have boots on the ground, though they are closely involved.

I think this is also much more of Russian military strength than 1/4. They are running out of time and cannot operate like this forever. If this is their current performance imagine how bad mercenaries (the worst ever) or more conscripts would be.

How do their leadership keep dying? Russia simply doesn’t know how to conduct an invasion.
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spat said:
I can't see a conflict large enough to qualify as a world war avoiding at least tactical nukes at this point.

To be big enough to be a world war, most of the worlds military assets would need to be committed.

I don't see the major powers going all in with their conventional forces without someone throwing some nukes when they start losing. Then once the first one flys, everyone else has cover.

But, I could be wrong. We did manage to keep chemical weapons mostly bottled up during WWII, so maybe people are scared enough of nukes that it wouldn't happen.
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Outside of the USA, Russia, China, the Koreas, and Poland, the rest of the world's combined forces are probably regimental strength.

Can the Brits field 2 battalions?
The Germans, Dutch and French maybe a brigade?
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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I haven't commented on much in the past week or 2. I've been trying to gather information and form opinions.

The more I see (trying to shift through Mountains of BS) IMO it's really becoming apparent the Russians are far less capable than we all expected in a conventional sense.

Their tactics suck. Their equipment was not maintained. They still can't get air superiority which is beyond baffling. Their own troops (sergeant and below) by repetitive accounts did not actually know they were going into combat and were woefully unprepared with the proper materials and mindset needed. I genuinely believe they thought they were going to exercises. Unit morale and leadership seems borderline toxic and fearful.

The Russian army very well might have 1/3 of their combat arms forces that were initially in the Ukrainian theater either killed, wounded, frostbitten, injured, surrendered, captured or awol. This is beyond shocking and I don't know how you can explain it away. You just can't.

It's an epic trainwreck.

There are countless stories of no real tactics or doctrine and columns of vehicles being ambushed and bogged down and no one knows how to respond and a whole bunch of people end up dead captured or awol. One vehicle gets taken out in the front and entire units behind just stay in the road waiting for their turn to get it or take off and flee.

The casualties are likely 10:1 at this point if not even more disproportionate. The Russians flat out can't sustain this much longer without doing something different.

Which brings me to me next point; what happens next...

Here is what I see as possible outcomes

1 Admit failure, work out a peace deal. This is unlike because I don't think Putin is the type to admit he made a mistake. I guess it depends if he can
Put his pride aside for the good of his country or not.

2 double down. Bring in re-enforcements, open up the rules of engagement, being in extra missiles etc. Really go to pound away on Ukraine to really go for a breakthrough. I think this is maybe a realistic outcome

3 go all in and authorize either some sort of chemical, nerve or nuclear attack. I think this is "marginal" but the longer this drags on the more likely it becomes. Putin IMO isn't likely to just quit so this is one of the more plausible outcomes

4 Putin blames NATO for his failure and blamed NATO for training, supplying and sharing Intel with Ukraine. He knows we are giving direct material support being used to stop his attack so he decides the hell with it and pre-emptively justifies a sudden nuclear attack on NATO



I dunno. Just my .02 cents.
 
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holdover

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Its really anybody's guess. Im guessing more #2 throwing the kitchen sink at it and hope for a ceasefire.

Supposedly, Mariupol has fallen, which is going to free up a lot of troops in the south.
 
Dr. Evil

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www.newsweek.com

Putin's Bombers Could Devastate Ukraine But He's Holding Back. Here's Why

The Russian leader has to keep destruction and pressure at a very careful, just-bad-enough level to not draw in NATO but push Ukraine to negotiate.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com

"The destruction is massive," a senior analyst working at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tells Newsweek, "especially when compared with what Europeans and Americans are used to seeing."

But, the analyst says, the damage associated with a contested ground war involving peer opponents shouldn't blind people to what is really happening. (The analyst requested anonymity in order to speak about classified matters.) "The heart of Kyiv has barely been touched. And almost all of the long-range strikes have been aimed at military targets."

In the capital, most observable to the west, Kyiv city authorities say that some 55 buildings have been damaged and that 222 people have died since February 24. It is a city of 2.8 million people.

"We need to understand Russia's actual conduct," says a retired Air Force officer, a lawyer by training who has been involved in approving targets for U.S. fights in Iraq and Afghanistan. The officer currently works as an analyst with a large military contractor advising the Pentagon and was granted anonymity in order to speak candidly.

"If we merely convince ourselves that Russia is bombing indiscriminately, or [that] it is failing to inflict more harm because its personnel are not up to the task or because it is technically inept, then we are not seeing the real conflict."

In the analyst's view, though the war has led to unprecedented destruction in the south and east, the Russian military has actually been showing restraint in its long-range attacks.

As of the past weekend, in 24 days of conflict, Russia has flown some 1,400 strike sorties and delivered almost 1,000 missiles (by contrast, the United States flew more sorties and delivered more weapons in the first day of the 2003 Iraq war). The vast majority of the airstrikes are over the battlefield, with Russian aircraft providing "close air support" to ground forces. The remainder—less than 20 percent, according to U.S. experts—has been aimed at military airfields, barracks and supporting depots.

A proportion of those strikes have damaged and destroyed civilian structures and killed and injured innocent civilians, but the level of death and destruction is low compared to Russia's capacity.

"I know it's hard ... to swallow that the carnage and destruction could be much worse than it is," says the DIA analyst. "But that's what the facts show. This suggests to me, at least, that Putin is not intentionally attacking civilians, that perhaps he is mindful that he needs to limit damage in order to leave an out for negotiations."
 
ArmedCorgi

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Dr. Evil said:
that perhaps he is mindful that he needs to limit damage in order to leave an out for negotiations."
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That only works if you don't have a dishonest media. This whole invasion could in reality be Putin going through Ukraine personally handing out chocolate and college scholarships and it wouldn't matter with a dishonest and bias media reporting on it with a monopoly on air time and fraudulent credibility.
 
spat

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JaguarJaguarGolf said:
Outside of the USA, Russia, China, the Koreas, and Poland, the rest of the world's combined forces are probably regimental strength.

Can the Brits field 2 battalions?
The Germans, Dutch and French maybe a brigade?
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Without the US fully engaged, it isn't a world war.

Hell, even if everyone else was all in, if we sit it out, it's not going to qualify.

The only conflict large enough to get the US fully involved would have to be a world war. Anything else would not be high enough intensity to qualify.

And I'm not just talking about the US military. One of the hallmarks of a world war is that it is a total war, the full civilian population is engaged in the war effort too.
 
spat

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1341 said:
Off course that is what is going to happen. I'm sure every Beltway insider has been setting up companies specifically for that rebuilding effort.
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They will funnel every taxpayer dollar they can get to the Ukraine.

10% for the big guy.

and half of DC will get a smaller cut.

The amount that will actually improve things in the Ukraine will be in the single digits.
 
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