Ukraine - Russia Conflict (Original Title: Things are heating up in the Donbass)

[Drinkthekoolaid]

I feel for the Ukrainian people....

But the longer this drags in the closer we get to ww3.

"If" and that's a big if, Ukraine is actually genuinely pushing Russia back, Russia isn't going to just bend over and take it. They will lash out and it will get nasty.

Russia is likely making a strategic withdrawal to consolidate forces and supply lines and to allow the Ukrainians to form a pocket that can once again be encircled and destroyed but what do I know I'm just a guy on the internet

I've seen reports that Russia is now attacking critical infrastructure that they previously had been avoiding hitting. That's telling in itself that Russia is changing their attitude, tactics and strategy. Look for further escalations like hitting NATO supply lines or shooting down NATO surveillance aircraft over the black sea. Etc.

This has a far Greater chance of an unpredictable outcome. I would much prefer this to be over and Russia and Ukraine come to some sort of peace agreement

 

[spat]

I feel for the Ukrainian people....

But the longer this drags in the closer we get to ww3.

"If" and that's a big if, Ukraine is actually genuinely pushing Russia back, Russia isn't going to just bend over and take it. They will lash out and it will get nasty.

Russia is likely making a strategic withdrawal to consolidate forces and supply lines and to allow the Ukrainians to form a pocket that can once again be encircled and destroyed but what do I know I'm just a guy on the internet

I've seen reports that Russia is now attacking critical infrastructure that they previously had been avoiding hitting. That's telling in itself that Russia is changing their attitude, tactics and strategy. Look for further escalations like hitting NATO supply lines or shooting down NATO surveillance aircraft over the black sea. Etc.

This has a far Greater chance of an unpredictable outcome. I would much prefer this to be over and Russia and Ukraine come to some sort of peace agreement

I don't think Russia will start WWIII unless the Russian government is in danger of losing control of Russia itself.

I think Ukraine will strike into Russian territory where it makes tactical sense, but I don't get the feeling they want to occupy anything long term.

I think best case here is a return to the 2010 borders and Russia remains strongly isolated until they have a major overhaul of their government.

 

[Mosinitis]

I can't imagine Russia doesn't have a plan. I predict full mobilization and all out war. Kiev will be dumb enough to give a reason by attacking Russian territory.

 

[holdover]

Yesterday Russia made numerous strikes against Uki Power plants. Ukraine is without power for the moment , they made more strikes today.

I gauge things by what the maps says. both sides have reasons to lie in a war

"In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies." -Winston Churchill

I have to say, I am very impressed with the way this offensive was pulled off , I cant understand how Russian Intelligence could have missed such a massive build up of troops .The Kershon offensive "" faint seemd to work .

Its time for Russia to shit or get off the pot. If they have the army they claim, they are going to need it ASAP.

The Russians playbook allows thier opponents to overextend themselves and stretch themselves out thin over a large area like Drink the koolaid says then counter attack and pinch off the salient. Theres some merit to this because the Russians are not fighting hard to hold thier ground they are falling back with out much of a fight, which makes me think they have orders to withdraw. Its an old tactic which goes back to the days of the Mongols Russia used it against the Germans , and they do seem to be useing a lot of ww2 style tactics .

Im not saying they planned it this way, Just operational doctrine in the face of a large assault .

One thing that crossed my mind though is why Putin never put Russia on a war footing . Im thinking maybe it would strain their economy to much and it could break. Dunno. Russias response to this Offensive will be telling for sure.

 

[holdover]

I can't imagine Russia doesn't have a plan. I predict full mobilization and all out war. Kiev will be dumb enough to give a reason by attacking Russian territory.

The big question is can they do it without breaking the economy? Was that the reason Putin was holding back ? I dunno.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Yesterday Russia made numerous strikes against Uki Power plants. Ukraine is without power for the moment , they made more strikes today.

I gauge things by what the maps says. both sides have reasons to lie in a war

"In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies." -Winston Churchill

I have to say, I am very impressed with the way this offensive was pulled off , I cant understand how Russian Intelligence could have missed such a massive build up of troops .The Kershon offensive "" faint seemd to work .

Its time for Russia to shit or get off the pot. If they have the army they claim, they are going to need it ASAP.

The Russians playbook allows thier opponents to overextend themselves and stretch themselves out thin over a large area like Drink the koolaid says then counter attack and pinch off the salient. Theres some merit to this because the Russians are not fighting hard to hold thier ground they are falling back with out much of a fight, which makes me think they have orders to withdraw. Its an old tactic which goes back to the days of the Mongols Russia used it against the Germans , and they do seem to be useing a lot of ww2 style tactics .

Im not saying they planned it this way, Just operational doctrine in the face of a large assault .

One thing that crossed my mind though is why Putin never put Russia on a war footing . Im thinking maybe it would strain their economy to much and it could break. Dunno. Russias response to this Offensive will be telling for sure.

Agree with everything you said there.

Russia has been very cautious until this week to not deliberately take out power plants and infrastructure. This week, they changed and are putting Ukraine in the dark. That's an indicator to note.

 

[livingston]

The big question is can they do it without breaking the economy? Was that the reason Putin was holding back ? I dunno.

You now draw folks in.. You know the terrain then attack Hannibal did such a maneuver against the greatest army in history (for its time ) the romans
Of the 80,000 Roman soldiers who took the field that day, 44,000 were killed while Hannibal lost around 6,000 men.

Battle of Cannae - Initial Deployment

Map of the Battle of Cannae showing the initial deployment and the Roman attack.

www.worldhistory.org

Not saying this will happen. I believe history could be on their side.

 

[livingston]

Folks as we head into fall.. How will Russia react to using energy as a weapon against Europe. ?
Will lights be out all over the continent... In a few months will Europe be on it's knees

 

[holdover]

Its similar but on a larger scale.

The Mongols were mainly light calvery , The Polish were Heavy Armored calvery. In a straight up fight , the Poles would have crushed them. The Mongols lured them into a long chase. The Polish Calvery began to string out as the horses tired. The Mongols then switched to fresh Horses they had waiting , The Polish horses were exhausted . There was no escape, The Mongols turned on them and cut them to pieces.

Ghenghis Kahn is still studied at West point today. He was a master of Maneuver and Psychological warfare. Its a known fact he never attended collage.

 

[holdover]

Folks as we head into fall.. How will Russia react to using energy as a weapon against Europe. ?
Will lights be out all over the continent... In a few months will Europe be on it's knees

They will try to bring the Europeans to the table. The people will be raging over the prices and People dying .

 

[livingston]

An Ice Age Descends on German Industry​

In the last few months energy costs in Germany have increased by more than an order of magnitude, and are expected to rise further. The devastating effects on German industry can no longer be glossed over, and many enterprises are closing plants, laying off workers, and contemplating bankruptcy.

Below are two articles about the energy situation in Germany. Many thanks to Hellequin GB for translating these pieces.

An Ice Age Descends on German Industry | Gates of Vienna

gatesofvienna.net

 

[holdover]

You now draw folks in.. You know the terrain then attack Hannibal did such a maneuver against the greatest army in history (for its time ) the romans
Of the 80,000 Roman soldiers who took the field that day, 44,000 were killed while Hannibal lost around 6,000 men.

Battle of Cannae - Initial Deployment

Map of the Battle of Cannae showing the initial deployment and the Roman attack.

www.worldhistory.org

Not saying this will happen. I believe history could be on their side.

Hannibal Understood the Roman tactics. They always tried to break the enemy's center line break them in two,and envelop them with calvery .

Hannibal reversed it on them , Trained his men to give up the center and had his flanks heavily weighted , When the Romans pushed throught the center, the Carthaginians gave way and enveloped the entire force. It took all day to kill the Romans , they say the field was slick with blood .

 

[spat]

Yesterday Russia made numerous strikes against Uki Power plants. Ukraine is without power for the moment , they made more strikes today.

I gauge things by what the maps says. both sides have reasons to lie in a war

"In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies." -Winston Churchill

I have to say, I am very impressed with the way this offensive was pulled off , I cant understand how Russian Intelligence could have missed such a massive build up of troops .The Kershon offensive "" faint seemd to work .

Its time for Russia to shit or get off the pot. If they have the army they claim, they are going to need it ASAP.

The Russians playbook allows thier opponents to overextend themselves and stretch themselves out thin over a large area like Drink the koolaid says then counter attack and pinch off the salient. Theres some merit to this because the Russians are not fighting hard to hold thier ground they are falling back with out much of a fight, which makes me think they have orders to withdraw. Its an old tactic which goes back to the days of the Mongols Russia used it against the Germans , and they do seem to be useing a lot of ww2 style tactics .

Im not saying they planned it this way, Just operational doctrine in the face of a large assault .

One thing that crossed my mind though is why Putin never put Russia on a war footing . Im thinking maybe it would strain their economy to much and it could break. Dunno. Russias response to this Offensive will be telling for sure.

He didn't do it because it would be quite embarrassing for him to have to go all out just to conquer a 3rd rate neighbor.

Remember this is just a "special operation" not a real war. Putting the whole country on a war footing would expose that fiction.

 

[holdover]

He didn't do it because it would be quite embarrassing for him to have to go all out just to conquer a 3rd rate neighbor.

Why is that? Ukraine had the largest best trained, equipped Army in Europe.

I think it was more to do do with harming the economy. In my opinion.

 

[tirwin1]

I can't imagine Russia doesn't have a plan. I predict full mobilization and all out war. Kiev will be dumb enough to give a reason by attacking Russian territory.

So much for the special military operation. I wonder if huge retreats and abandoned equipment were part of the plan. Maybe Putin is playing 4D chess?

 

[spat]

Why is that? Ukraine had the largest best trained, equipped Army in Europe.

I think it was more to do do with harming the economy. In my opinion.

They do now (well, excepting France, the US, and the UK, Maybe Germany, Italy, ....).

Last February Ukraine was not considered to have more than a speed bump for the Russians. They didn't appear on anyone's "top 20" list. Half of Europe was more powerful than them.

So, for Russia to shift to a full out war footing now, they would have to admit that 6 months into their 2 week war, their opponent is much stronger than it was when they started.

The whole operation has been a Fiasco for Russia, regardless of any pretense of justification they might have held.

 

[holdover]

The US and NATO had been training them for 8 years. For a defensive war. they had prepared positions in the donbass that were unbelievable.

I have to say, I never thought it would go this long, 2-3 weeks maybe . I expected them to fall quickly .Shifting to a war footing is something you need or dont need to do. They should have done it from day 1 . The military leadership is terrible .

Not doing it because its embarrassing, will no doubt cause further embarrassment. If they have the means they need to do so now. or its going to get worse.

 

[JaguarJaguarGolf]

Agree with everything you said there.

Russia has been very cautious until this week to not deliberately take out power plants and infrastructure. This week, they changed and are putting Ukraine in the dark. That's an indicator to note.

No time for repairs before winter

 

[spat]

The US and NATO had been training them for 8 years. For a defensive war. they had prepared positions in the donbass that were unbelievable.

I have to say, I never thought it would go this long, 2-3 weeks maybe . I expected them to fall quickly .Shifting to a war footing is something you need or dont need to do. They should have done it from day 1 . The military leadership is terrible .

Not doing it because its embarrassing, will no doubt cause further embarrassment. If they have the means they need to do so now. or its going to get worse.

Too late now. Maybe if they had ramped up in the beginning of 2021 it might have worked.

Their only solution is to abandon the enterprise.

The longer they take the worse it gets for them.

 

[DoOver]

Neo-Nazi Azov Regiment Is Leading the Kharkiv Offensive in Ukraine, Former Blackwater Group Involved​

 

[Mosinitis]

No time for repairs before winter

They no longer have the ability to repair their power plants. These were built by Soviet factories using Soviet design. Russian Federation is the only source for major components and parts.

 

[SonOfSun]

So much for the special military operation. I wonder if huge retreats and abandoned equipment were part of the plan. Maybe Putin is playing 4D chess?

Russia has just advanced their tactics is all. Transitioning to 30 uear old north Korean supplied hardware was the play all along....

 

[Steal2B]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/13/putin-war-ukraine-russia-retreat/

 

[Steal2B]

Russian troops fleeing after their lines were shattered left behind so much ammo and weaponry Ukraine struggled to handle it all

Russian troops have reportedly disguised themselves as civilians while fleeing — even stealing bicycles and vehicles from locals to get away.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[ArmedCorgi]

View attachment 173097

Russian troops fleeing after their lines were shattered left behind so much ammo and weaponry Ukraine struggled to handle it all

Russian troops have reportedly disguised themselves as civilians while fleeing — even stealing bicycles and vehicles from locals to get away.

www.businessinsider.com

Oh good. Maybe Ukraine can stop mooching off of us now.

 

[spat]

Oh good. Maybe Ukraine can stop mooching off of us now.

Watch us turn around and sell replacement hardware to Russia for all the stuff the Ukranians blew up LOL.

 

[Steal2B]

Oh good. Maybe Ukraine can stop mooching off of us now.

The deep state will still continue money laundering that way regardless.

 

[tirwin1]

Tough time to be a russian oligarch.

 

[tirwin1]

 

[tirwin1]