Okay, so you are saying that you don't understand what is happening, but you think this is going to be another Afghanistan? Kind of odd.
Ukraine - Russia Conflict (Original Title: Things are heating up in the Donbass)
- Thread starter holdover
- Start date
Okay, so you are saying that you don't understand what is happening, but you think this is going to be another Afghanistan? Kind of odd.
They lost in Afghanistan because of Rambo. Rambo is not going to the Ukraine.
I honestly have no idea what's really going on there is so much misinformation and propaganda.
I think Ukraine is punching above their weight because they've received a crap ton of NATO support. Russia has a bloody nose. The lines more or less seem fairly static no real break throughs or victories for either side.
I think Russia's supply lines were never properly established.
I think Russia is pausing to regroup, refit, re mobilize, re establish supply lines. I think they are rethinking their strategy now and are in the process of changing tactics.
I think Ukraine won some battles but it may have cost them the war. Ukraine cannot continue to sustain these losses. Their best troops keep incrementally becoming combat ineffective and are being replaced by less capable less experienced units. Ukraine is tapped out they don't have an endless supply of young men. You'll know they are desperate when you see women and 50-60 yr old men being conscripted.
Wait until 90% of Ukraine is tied up in the east and Russia and Belarus launches a northern campaign down from Belarus to kyiv.
Right now Ukraine has done remarkably well but the mere fact remains because they haven't already won their time is running out. Every day will tilt more in Russias favor.
Ukraine can never attack Russia proper. Russia will just nuke them.
Russia will win.
The wild card is what happens with Poland, Belarus and the Baltics and does NATO proper get actively involved in fighting. All bets are off and we'll be lucky to be alive a year from now. I think there's a very strong possibility Poland goes into western Ukraine and Poland and Belarus get into a fight.
Frankly there are so many variables I can't possibly comprehend the nuances. I really feel dirty that as an American we are using Ukrainian blood to fight Russia. That's what we are doing. I think it's in our best national and world interest to want this war to be over as soon as possible. The west alienating Russia will be regretted by impartial observers for decades to come.
ArmedCorgi
.475 A&M Magnum
Seriously? Why is that odd? I am saying that, no, I don't have any idea of what is really happening on the ground there (how could I?), but that, and here is the important qualifier "ITS LOOKING LIKE" another Afganistan for Russia. Do you not think the Russians are getting ground up? They certainly haven't defeated Ukraine. We seem to be fighting a proxy war against them, just like we did in Afganistan in the 80's.
spat
.950 JDJ
Russia has a much higher tolerance casualties than the US, and Ukraine doesn't have much if a choice.
For sure. I read somewhere that Russia has never once given up a campaign until after they've lost at least a half million men.
I haven't verified it or researched it but Russia is willing to absorb casualties morw than anyone else besides china
spat
.950 JDJ
I can guarantee nobody on this site really understands what is going on there.
I'm not even sure if anyone in the Russian or Ukrainian government really understands.
I do think Russia is getting bled dry.
Ukraine certainly can't keep this up forever, but neither can Russia. Classic war of attrition.
This will go on until either one of the sides runs out of manpower, or Russia runs out of munitions, or NATO gets bored of supporting Ukraine.
Russia is definatly winning this war. It's not as easy as they originally planned, but they can do it.
I find it odd. I find it odd that you claim to have no clue what is going on, but think this is a mirror to what they went through in the 80's.
Just not sure how you can connect the two if you are not sure what is happening in the Ukraine war. That's all.
I do see a bit of the correlation in regards to the funding that the US did then and now.
I know they are. The Ukraine is being devastated.
I think there are some on this forum that know much more than others here do. I have read so many posts in this thread that shows how little information some have,
ArmedCorgi
.475 A&M Magnum
Why aren't they just flooring the Ukrainians then? Why are they being so reserved and cautious? I feel like the time of them wanting to preserve infrastructure is well over. What are they waiting for? Why not just steam roll the Ukrainians at this point?
Because, maybe they are not complete monsters and are trying to keep the death of innocents to a minimum.
spat
.950 JDJ
Russia has somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 million people in the 18-45 demographic.
Half a million casualties is like losing 1% of their entire military aged population.
Russia's population is also *shrinking* at a rate of .5% per year without the war.
In WWII they had the fertility to absorb massive casualties. Today they cannot afford that.
They were already headed to a devastating demographic bomb, this is just making things worse.
Half a million additional young healthy people lost could be enough to finish them. Not right away, but in 20 years they're in some serious trouble.
spat
.950 JDJ
They aren't even trying very hard to minimize their own deaths.
Pretty sure they DGAF about Ukranian deaths.
I think they do care about the levels of civilian deaths, absolutely
ArmedCorgi
.475 A&M Magnum
And I find it odd that you ask a question and then belittle people for their answer. I find it odd that you can't seem to understand someone admitting they don't know what is actually going on but then offering their perspective (opinion). I haven't been very active in this thread because I really don't know what to think about the whole situation. You asked a question and I foolishly gave you what my thoughts are at this time.
Clearly you have all the answers and just like to trap people with these questions.
ArmedCorgi
.475 A&M Magnum
Well it's definitely not winning them this war is it?
I am sorry that you were offended and thought I was belittling you. Not at all, I come to this forum for conversation. Again, if your feelings were hurt, it was not my intention. I will no longer respond to you.
ArmedCorgi
.475 A&M Magnum
Holy shit. Whatever man.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
I dont think he meant it the way you took it.
ArmedCorgi
.475 A&M Magnum
Likewise.
A direct and "to the point" communication style many times comes across as hostile even when no offense is intended. I know this because I have a tendency towards that as well. In marketing when dealing with clients you quickly learn that style can lead to issues. So I had to learn how to change that. I wasn't always successful lol.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Well its no secret, but I do believe the Russians are winning. sloppily, but none the less they are winning .
#1 I gauge it by the maps , Russians have taken over 100,000 square miles of Ukraine territory and Ukraine has not been able to get it back .
#2 the war is being fought in Ukraine not Russia.
#3 the economy's of both Country's . The Russian economy is doing fine. Ukraine's is utterly devastated. The war is being financed by the west otherwise they would collapse.
#4 Ukraine's production ( whats left of it ) cannot keep pace with the consumption. If we give them 5000 HIMAR rounds, they seem to burn it up in a week end. Same goes for their own artillery, they burned more than they can produce .That is unsustainable. Of course they are being propped up by the west but that wont last forever.
Barring some drastic changes , like drink the koolaid said, like NATO jumping in or something. The Russians will win .
#5 Russia has destroyed the electrical grid in Half of Ukraine.
#6 The Russians occupy Eastern Ukraine which is where 70-80% of Ukraine industry is/was
#7 Ukraine cannot beat Russia in Russia which is what must happen for them to defeat her. because if they are beaten back to the original borders, the war isnt over. Russia wont/cant stop .
#8 Ukraine has been on a war footing from day 1 and called up all reservists and prior military, The well is getting dry. Russia hasnt used its reserve and prior service yet, they are building whole new army groups
The only way Russia lose'es is a financial collapse of the Russian economy ( which is possible if a global financial collapse happens)
A coup de ta. Putin is killed and opposition leaders request a peace agreement.
NATO Jumps into the war, and everyone dies.
thats all I got.
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Acer-m14
20×102mm Vulcan
"The US is set to finalize a huge military aid package for Ukraine totaling approximately $2.5 billion worth of weaponry, including for the first time Stryker combat vehicles, two sources briefed on the next tranche of aid told CNN."
Is there any news of Russia asking for AID and weapons ??
Is there any news of Russia asking for AID and weapons ??
Russian casualties are high, but not as high as reported by Western media, which basically parrots Ukrainian sources. Russians are admitting high casualties, but the last time they gave actual numbers, they were significantly lower than what Western media was reporting at the time.
One of the NATO goals was regime change in Russia, where sell out puppet of the West is installed. That actually backfired, as the biggest opposition to Putin today comes from popular leaders who advocate a direct war with NATO. Girkin gets in and the missiles start flying into NATO territory. The idea that NATO, if confronted directly, will stand down in Ukraine to avoid a nuclear war is not without merit.
Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan because it wasn't worth it. It was never a part of Russia, there were no Russians living there that needed protection and Western plan to divide and conquer Russia wasn't on the radar at the time. This was not the situation they face in Ukraine.
One of the NATO goals was regime change in Russia, where sell out puppet of the West is installed. That actually backfired, as the biggest opposition to Putin today comes from popular leaders who advocate a direct war with NATO. Girkin gets in and the missiles start flying into NATO territory. The idea that NATO, if confronted directly, will stand down in Ukraine to avoid a nuclear war is not without merit.
Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan because it wasn't worth it. It was never a part of Russia, there were no Russians living there that needed protection and Western plan to divide and conquer Russia wasn't on the radar at the time. This was not the situation they face in Ukraine.
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spat
.950 JDJ
If they really cared they would just pack up and go home.
Everyone who has died and will die is on them.
spat
.950 JDJ
What is it you think a Russian victory would look like ?
I say they have already lost. Even if they conquer Ukraine, they won't be able to afford to occupy it.
This whole catastrophe might have been engineered by the CIA to collapse the Putin regime. If it was, it's working. Even a military victory at this point will likely lead to their collapse.
It didn't go well at the NATO meeting in Ramstein. Not only Germany refused to send its Leopard tanks to Ukraine, it denied permission to other countries to send them. Germany is not looking forward to getting entangled in another war in Ukraine. Didn't go well for them the last time. They also resent being pressed into it by corrupt politicians in another hemisphere, who undermined them by blowing up their gas pipeline. While Washington mafia is profiteering from this war, German industry which was dependant on cheap energy source from Russia, is losing. They are still occupied by U.S. military so they have to contend, but they are not happy about it.
U.S. wasn't even the country who defeated them.
U.S. wasn't even the country who defeated them.
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Um.....you sure about that Tex?
In breakthrough, minister says Germany won't block Poland from giving Ukraine tanks
Germany’s top diplomat says her country would not object if Poland decides to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine.
www.marketwatch.com
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