Ukraine - Russia Conflict (Original Title: Things are heating up in the Donbass)

[Mosinitis]

Ukraine is turned into a death cult. Funeral etiquette was created that didn't exist in their culture. Traditional etiquette is to take off your hat and lower your head to show respect during funeral procession, which is similar for most cultures in the region. Not to get on your knees like a bunch of slaves. Who is choreographing this? Where is this culture building comming from?

 

[Mosinitis]

There, go die for foreign sugar daddies and get this great send off.

 

[spat]

How would they enforce it with no air force? That doesn't make a lot of sense

SAMs.

 

[spat]

I don't expect honest reporting from either side. Has anyone come across loss statistics that seem reasonable at all?

It'll be a decade or more before we can get an honest approximation.

Historians are going to have to look at whole population statistics to figure it out.

 

[spat]

Do the Ukrainian airforce fly over Ukraine? theres a massive assault on Robatyne , wheres the aircover?

meanwhile zelensky been crying about F 16's

Yep, nobody can afford to risk aircraft over the front lines. So nobody gets close air support.

I.e. it's a no fly zone.

 

[spat]

No one knows.

Every side is pumping out propaganda to further their narrative.

Ukraine claims they've killed xxx,xxx Russians and only lost xx,xxx Ukrainians.

Russia claims they've killed xxx,xxxx Ukrainians and only lost xx,xxx Russians.

I really don't think either side is honestly reporting loses. The truth is somewhere in the middle.

I do know that one side has forbidden their citizens from leaving the country and are forcibly kidnapping/conscripting them. One sides average age of soldiers is now something absurd like avg. Age of 45 years old so what does that say?

Russia has lost a lot of planes. But they still have planes to fly. Many of their losses were su22 frog foots. The splashy headlines of su-34s maybe around 8-10 have been lost total. Their command and control AWACS and IL76 loses hurt more than a few SU22s

When Ukraine is desperate enough to fly their planes they are essentially on a suicide mission. That's why I'm pretty convinced they are going to pull some shenanigans to base their F16s out of Poland or something.

Ukraine still has solid control of the entire west of the country. They can safely fly out of anything west of Kiev. They don't need to base out of country.

 

[holdover]

SAMs.

thats not an air force. We were talking aircraft .

 

[holdover]

Ukraine still has solid control of the entire west of the country. They can safely fly out of anything west of Kiev. They don't need to base out of country.

Any air base in western Ukraine can be hit with Missiles and have been. Yes they would definitely have to base outside of Ukraine , the landing strips would be pummeled .

The Ukrianians dont have the long range missiles to hit the airfields in Russia . and they gave them the shorter range atacms , because the US didnt want them hitting Moscow. The russian airfields are mostly out of range of the Ukrainian artillery and missiles , the air force is wasted .

Right now the Ukrainians cant replace thier losses in time .

In my opinion, The US is playing games , They know Ukraine cant win now. and they need zelensky to make a deal with Russia , Zelensky wont budge and the US is holding back aid giving him no choice . Not that Putin would except anything but the most generous terms , zelensky is trying to go it alone . and the front is cracking .

 

[holdover]

Yep, nobody can afford to risk aircraft over the front lines. So nobody gets close air support.

I.e. it's a no fly zone.

Mostly true except Russia has been pummling the front lines with Fabs for months . safely behind thier own lines, The ukraines cant do that. which is why the summer offensive stalled out

 

[holdover]

Curious, how many?

How many what? sorties or defense missiles? Ukrainians reported 50 to 100 strikes a day over Advika. Those fabs are heavy, 1000-3000 pound bombs Bunker busters . Not sure about how many Missiles, Ukraine is complaining they need more , low stock right now .

 

[spat]

thats not an air force. We were talking aircraft .

No, we were talking a no fly zone.

If your opponent can't fly aircraft, it's a no fly zone.

Whether your using your own aircraft, SAMs, or Jewish space lasers to deny them access to the air, it's still a no fly zone.

 

[holdover]

No, we were talking a no fly zone.

If your opponent can't fly aircraft, it's a no fly zone.

Whether your using your own aircraft, SAMs, or Jewish space lasers to deny them access to the air, it's still a no fly zone.

No. Thats not what I was talking about. Its pretty obvious that sams were in play.

 

[spat]

Any air base in western Ukraine can be hit with Missiles and have been. Yes they would definitely have to base outside of Ukraine , the landing strips would be pummeled .

Some stray attacks, sure.

But Kiev isn't a pile of rubble, so I assume an airbase could be maintained as well.

I don't believe Russia has enough long range precision weapons to keep an airbase down at that range.

They could destroy a couple buildings and crater a runway, but they can't keep doing that over and over, so it could be rebuilt quickly enough.

Catering a runway keeps an airbase offline for a couple days at best.

Taking out a couple hangers leaves lots more functional on any serious airbase.

If they did have the weapons to do that, they would have used them against other targets already.

 

[holdover]

Your wrong on so many levels ,

 

[spat]

No. Thats not what I was talking about. Its pretty obvious that sams were in play.

We were talking about Ukraine setting up their own no fly zone.

Then you said they can't because they don't have the aircraft.

And I basically said there's more than one way to enforce a no fly zone...

Just because *you* want them to use aircraft they don't have doesn't mean they have to.

 

[spat]

Your wrong on so many levels ,

One of us is.

 

[holdover]

Yeah air planes, thier sams were already in play,since the start of the war. hello?

That means there has been a no fly zone from day one. Mcfly?

 

[holdover]

One of us is.

That leaves you.

 

[holdover]

My prediction,

Ukraine won't have the infrastructure to support the f16s so 1 of 2 outcomes will happen.


1- Ukraine will fly and operate the f16s from actual NATO airfields in Poland.

2- NATO will establish a no fly zone over western Ukraine to protect the f16 infrastructure in western Ukraine.

Either plan is very likely going to (deliberately) get NATO pulled into the conflict. Russia won't just sit there and say sure Ukraine use your donated F16s to launch donated cruise missiles at Russian airbases, navy ships and Moscow no problem. No. Russia will have no choice but to attack the F16s on the ground regardless where they are located.

""2- NATO will establish a no fly zone over western Ukraine to protect the f16 infrastructure in western Ukraine.""

This is what I was talking about . You follow now? Ukraine has had a no fly zone from day 1. Not what we were talking about.

 

[Mosinitis]

More fallout from Avdeyevka collapse. Not only Ukrainian troops were abandoning their positions and running away on foot, they were making deals with the Russians to leave their wounded to be treated by Russian medics and be taken as POW's. Zelensky while schmoozing in Munich vouched they will face criminal prosecution.
Russians are attacking on numerous locations across the front.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Ukraine still has solid control of the entire west of the country. They can safely fly out of anything west of Kiev. They don't need to base out of country.

Yes, and no. It's a giant complicated mess


They can still be hit by missiles at will.y thinking was not many of Ukraines airfields are in good enough shape to support F16s and they can be tracked by s-400s pretty much upon take off

I was theorizing that Ukraine would launch F16s from Poland fly briefly into Ukraine and launch long range cruise missiles or beyond visual range air to air missiles then turn around and run back into polish/NATO air space

 

[spat]

Yes, and no. It's a giant complicated mess


They can still be hit by missiles at will.y thinking was not many of Ukraines airfields are in good enough shape to support F16s and they can be tracked by s-400s pretty much upon take off

I was theorizing that Ukraine would launch F16s from Poland fly briefly into Ukraine and launch long range cruise missiles or beyond visual range air to air missiles then turn around and run back into polish/NATO air space

Doubt Poland would allow that.

But, a Ukrainian airfield doesn't need to be much. A decent runway, and a hanger with maybe a munitions and fuel bunker.

Any complex maintenance, they fly them out to NATO. That way they aren't flying missions from NATO territory. They land in Ukraine, arm up, refuel, and take off again.
But that's all the ukranian airbase needs to be, a runway, a tent, a fuel bladder and a truck full of ammo.

Sure, Russia can maybe lob some missiles that way, but their track record says they're going to run out of missiles before they cause enough damage to matter.

The only thing of value on the base is the aircraft. Everything else is disposable.

If Ukraine is smart (and they seem to be) there will be 10 plywood models for every real aircraft.

Russia would deplete their entire stockpile to take out a few planes, and create a few easily patched holes in a runway.

 

[1341]

How many what? sorties or defense missiles? Ukrainians reported 50 to 100 strikes a day over Advika. Those fabs are heavy, 1000-3000 pound bombs Bunker busters . Not sure about how many Missiles, Ukraine is complaining they need more , low stock right now .

Man, you're all over the place. Your response has nothing do with the question asked.

 

[holdover]

Man, you're all over the place. Your response has nothing do with the question asked.

Ok fair enough make your question clear . It was pretty vague.

 

[1341]

Ok fair enough make your question clear . It was pretty vague.

Of course it's vague, because it wasn't directed at you

 

[holdover]

The only thing of value on the base is the aircraft. Everything else is disposable.

This demostrates what you know about the air force. Everything is a necessity. Its lean. You hit the ammo dump there is no weapons, you hit the fuel storage there is no fuel, you hit the hangers theres no aircraft. You hit the barracks theres no pilots, mechanics .

But that's all the ukranian airbase needs to be, a runway, a tent, a fuel bladder and a truck full of ammo.

what about cooks? what about trucks? what about officers? radar ? coms ? mechanics? pilots ? what about the maintenance needed ? what about the heavy equipment ? Lol , its not a video game .

 

[holdover]

Of course it's vague, because it wasn't directed at you

Well then ,that would make a lot more sense.

 

[holdover]

Sure, Russia can maybe lob some missiles that way, but their track record says they're going to run out of missiles before they cause enough damage to matter.

Its almost as if your watching a different war, some place else.

​

​

Russia has enough missiles to again hammer Ukraine with massive barrages, but it looks to be going after different targets​

Jan2 2024

Over the past few days, Russia has launched massive long-range strikes against Ukraine, targeting both civilian and military infrastructure. Last Friday's attack has been described by Ukrainian officials as the worst aerial strike of the war, involving 158 missiles and drones and a death toll of at least 39 people.

On Tuesday, Russia followed that attack with more than 130 missiles, 10 of which were Kinzhal missiles, and drones. Ukraine said it was able to shoot down the majority of the incoming threats, including all of the Kinzhals, using Western-provided air defenses such as the US-made Patriot.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday that since last Friday, the Russians have lobbed about 500 missiles and drones at his country.

"For Russia, the supply of strike munitions is increasing. In October 2022 Russia was producing approximately 40 long-range missiles a month. Now it is producing over 100 a month, and this is supplemented by large numbers of Geran-2 UAVs," Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute, wrote in an October report.

Russia has enough missiles to again hammer Ukraine with massive barrages, but it looks to be going after different targets

Russia is ramping up production and rebuilding once dwindling stockpiles for big attacks, but it's unclear how long it can keep it up.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[spat]

This demostrates what you know about the air force. Everything is a necessity. Its lean. You hit the ammo dump there is no weapons, you hit the fuel storage there is no fuel, you hit the hangers theres no aircraft. You hit the barracks theres no pilots, mechanics .



what about cooks? what about trucks? what about officers? radar ? coms ? mechanics? pilots ? what about the maintenance needed ? what about the heavy equipment ? Lol , its not a video game .

LoL, we're talking about an expedient airbase in a forward area. Not some major permanent base.

Sure, they'll have some trucks and stuff. You think it's a good decision for Russia to expend a long range precision guided missile to take out some trucks and the mess tent ?

Ukraine will take that trade all day LOL.

They'll have some fuel too. Might not even store it though, might just have some trucks parked by the runway.

Same for munitions.

They're not going to have some giant stockpile, just a weeks worth of fuel and ammo.

Couple trucks full of jet fuel for an Iskander ?

Ukraine will take that trade all day too.

 

[spat]

Its almost as if your watching a different war, some place else.

​

​

Russia has enough missiles to again hammer Ukraine with massive barrages, but it looks to be going after different targets​

Jan2 2024

Over the past few days, Russia has launched massive long-range strikes against Ukraine, targeting both civilian and military infrastructure. Last Friday's attack has been described by Ukrainian officials as the worst aerial strike of the war, involving 158 missiles and drones and a death toll of at least 39 people.

On Tuesday, Russia followed that attack with more than 130 missiles, 10 of which were Kinzhal missiles, and drones. Ukraine said it was able to shoot down the majority of the incoming threats, including all of the Kinzhals, using Western-provided air defenses such as the US-made Patriot.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday that since last Friday, the Russians have lobbed about 500 missiles and drones at his country.

"For Russia, the supply of strike munitions is increasing. In October 2022 Russia was producing approximately 40 long-range missiles a month. Now it is producing over 100 a month, and this is supplemented by large numbers of Geran-2 UAVs," Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute, wrote in an October report.

Russia has enough missiles to again hammer Ukraine with massive barrages, but it looks to be going after different targets

Russia is ramping up production and rebuilding once dwindling stockpiles for big attacks, but it's unclear how long it can keep it up.

www.businessinsider.com

158 missiles and they only managed to kill 39 people.

I rest my case.

At the full war output they quoted of 100 missiles a month, that is not going to affect the ability to stage aircraft west of Kiev.