holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
I did. Im not so sure now because the battlefield is changing. Poland France may enter the war , that changes the dynamics .
Things are heating up in the Donbass
- Thread starter holdover
- Start date
I did. Im not so sure now because the battlefield is changing. Poland France may enter the war , that changes the dynamics .
Why on earth would they stop? Putin publicly declared the decline of the USSR was a tragedy in his eyes. He wants the borders of the USSR back.
spat
.950 JDJ
We're selling the US off to China as we speak, and you think we'd go to war over a base in Canada ?
You think it would be justified for us to invade Canada ?
Is it justified for NATO to invade Belarus because they're too friendly with Russia ?
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Nah, man thats western propaganda , He said something like it , but it was spun to sound like that. Something to the effect of missing the power of the soviet union but not missing the communism , something like that.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Insert Russia instead of China if it works for you.
100%
Are they a national security threat to NATO?
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Lights and power are now off in most of Eastern Ukraine .
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spat
.950 JDJ
So, you're saying NATO *should* go into Ukraine, and Belarus too, because Russia *is* a threat to them ?
The only major power to invade anyone in a warnof conquest this century is Russia. They are the only major country that presents a military threat to anyone.
Interesting take. Putin's claim about the old borders was just propaganda, but then he actually goes through with it. Doesn't seem like propaganda now.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Ill see if I can find the quote.
Are they going to invade Hungry and Romania now too? They were fine with the Ukraine having their own country On one condition, laid out from the start ""remain neutral."" NATO in Ukraine would not be tolerated and would force military action by Russia. Now its just a coincidence that when NATO was ready to allow Ukraine in, Putin wakes up one morning and decides to take over all of Europe? It had nothing to do with Ukraine joining NATO? Even though He had told the Ukrainians and west for 30 years that NATO's expansion into Ukraine was a red line and Russia would use force to prevent it. It wasn't NATO after all, it was that after allowing the soviet union to dissolve and Soviet country's becoming independent , they now want it all back. and after losing all those countries and military power He thinks its a good time to invade Europe now?
Russias army , and Europes, were all pretty weak , neither Europe nor Russia had any expectation of conflict. except the Ukrainian army which had the largest best equipped army in Europe at the time of the Russian invasion. Roughly 700,000 man standing army.
Russia attacked Ukraine with 150-190K troops. and the results showed . the Russians were not prepared to invade but felt they were forced to act before Ukraine could join NATO . It was imperative for the Russians to start the war , they had no time to build an army , they had to engage the Ukrainians before they were ready to prevent NATO from entering . They went to war with the army they had .They frantically tried to obtain an agreement with Ukraine several times to avoid the conflict.
This is all in the historical record , not my opinion . They weren't ready for a war and the west knew it. The west figured Russia would try to negotiate but probably not invade. but they built up the Ukrainian army for 8 years just in case the Russians got froggy.
The idea that Putin woke up one day and decided he was going to invade Europe one country at a time in nonsense, NATO prevented the soviet union from ever doing that for 50 years , but now when the Soviet union was broken up, and Russia was at its weakest , it just declared war on Ukraine for territory gains , with an un-prepared army .
Sorry, thats a lot of hogwash. Im not backing the Clintons, the Obamas, the Bidens, George Soros, Victoria nuland , Nikki Haleys Black rock , I know which side Im on. I dont need the talking heads to tell me what happened. I followed it as it happened, and Im telling you like it is.
Here it is.
""Anyone who doesn't regret the passing of the Soviet Union has no heart. Anyone who wants it restored has no brains.""
Democracy means the power of the people and the possibility of influencing the governing parties. Russia had had enough experience with a one-party-system - we will not go back there.
Vladimir Putin
I see that not everyone in the West has understood that the Soviet Union has disappeared from the political map of the world and that a new country has emerged with new humanist and ideological principles at the foundation of its existence.
Vladimir Putin
I assume that our colleagues from both the United States and the European Union will proceed from current humanitarian law and ensure political freedoms and rights of all people, including those who are living in the territory of Baltic states after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Vladimir Putin
Russia has made its choice in favor of democracy. Fourteen years ago, independently, without any pressure from outside, it made that decision in the interests of itself and interests of its people - of its citizens. This is our final choice, and we have no way back. There can be no return to what we used to have before.
Vladimir Putin
How long has it taken the democratic process to develop in the United States? Since it was founded. So, do you think that as regards democracy everything is settled now in America? If this were so, there would be no Ferguson issue, right? There would be no other issues of similar kind, there would be no police abuse. Our goal is to see all these issues and respond to them timely and properly. The same applies to Russia. We also have a lot of problems.
Vladimir Putin
The basic principles of democracy should be observed whatever the country - principles such as civil liberties, a free market, a free press, the priority of the individual over mythical state interests, a state which serves the interests of ordinary people and defends their rights and interests. This is all easy to say but hard to make reality.
Vladimir Putin
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Belaruse is not a threat to anyone, they barely have an army.
the only major country that presents a military threat to anyone? What world are you living in?What do you think Nato is doing right now?
spat
.950 JDJ
You just don't fucking get it.
RUSSIA DOESN'T GET TO TELL ANYONE ELSE WHAT ALLIANCES THEY CAN JOIN.
Could NATO tell Russia they can't trade with North Korea anymore ? And invade him if he does ? That's ridiculous, right ?
But that what you're claiming Russia can do to Ukraine.
Imagine if the military power had been the other way, and Ukraine had invaded Russia because they were getting too chummy with China. Would that have been alright?
Why do you think Russia is the only country that can impose it's will on it's neighbors by force ?
Maybe NATO *should* back Ukraine all the way and go into Russia they way Russia went into Ukraine. How could you possibly say that wouldn't be justified now ?
spat
.950 JDJ
And Ukraine was a threat to Russia when they invaded ?
Belarus is getting too close to an alliance with Russia, so they should be pre-emptively invaded. Isn't that the standard you suggested for Ukraine ?
And, no, before the invasion, NATO was not a threat to anyone.
They might be a threat to Russia *now*. Because they might be starting to accept your Russian "invade first" doctrine. Looking at the rhetoric from France and Poland, they're starting to say "well, Russia says you should invade a country if you see them as a threat, and Russia sure looks threatening right now".
NATO has never invaded anywhere. Russia has invaded more places than I can count.
Robin
.577 Tyrannosaur.
Belarus isn't a country, thats like saying Nassau county is another country.
Lets be realistic.
Robin
Lets be realistic.Robin
spat
.950 JDJ
Well, they do get to vote at the UN, and send their own teams to the Olympics, and print their own passports.Belarus isn't a country, thats like saying Nassau county is another country.
Robin
But I suppose the Principality of Sealand gets to print passports too, and they might be allowed to field an Olympic team if they wanted...
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
In theory, your right. In practice your wrong . I agree with you to a point, One nation shouldn't tell another nation what to do . I get it.
Where your wrong is , they can by force of arms . If a country feel threatens because of the actions of another ,They could take action against them . its not a right or wrong thing its a yes or no possibility. Russia doesn't give a flying fuck who thinks they are wrong . they are concerned about their own safety. If Russia feels threatened, they may attack, in fact they said they would many times over the last 30 years. Theres no surprises here.
I know your argument is NATO is defensive only and poses no threat to Russia , but thats not how the Russians see it . the Russians see a threat and are reacting to it . Regardless if you agree with them or not. They see it, and I agree with them That NATO in Ukraine is a threat to their country
The US had no right to place an embargo on Cuba and stop Russian ships from entering . It had no right to demand that Russia remove its missiles from Cuba. By international law, The US was wrong .
But because the US felt threatened, it took military action to stop the threat. It didnt give fuck what anybody thought . they said you can take your rule book and shove it up your ass. and they made the right decision . reguardless of what the world thought.
I know your going to insist that NATO isnt a threat, but again, its completely irrelevant. the Russians do and they took actions to stop it .
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
No. the threat was always NATO. Obviously They had to move before NATO approved the application.at which point they would facing an entire NATO force. it was now or never.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Understood. They could, but they have no grounds to justify it .
No the situation is completely different .
No.Your missing the element of a serious threat. Im not saying russia or anyone can tell another country what to do. Ukraine is a sovereign country it can do what ever it wants to. But if the Russians warn them that joining NATO means a declaration of war because of a perceived threat and Ukraine does it anyways . Well there's consequences to their actions, Doesnt make one bit of difference that you think there is no threat. Russia did, warned them loud and clear for 30 years, Zelensky told Putin to go fuck his mother and here we are.
After all that, after the death of all of the Ukrainians and loss of territory and probably the loss of the entire war was it all worth it for Ukraine?
spat
.950 JDJ
Russian delusions aren't really relevant.
Ukraine will most likely be a NATO member before the end of the decade, certainly within the next 10 years.
Russia could probably have held that off *longer* by diplomatic means. Their invasion has actually accelerated that timeline.
And it certainly convinced everyone else in the region who isn't already a Russian puppet that they want to join NATO ASAP.
So, Russia's irrational fear of an expanding NATO has created a self fulfilling prophecy.
If Russia hadn't acted so aggressively, NATO might have withered and died. As it was most of the members weren't contributing their required shares, and there was active talk of the US pulling out because of it.
Now, Putin is going to have half a million dead Russians, precisely the sort of young men that every developed nation is going to have a major shortage of coming soon.
His military that was once feared throughout the world is now a laughing stock.
His neighbors who remained neutral through the entire cold war have now joined NATO.
And, if he is *very* lucky, he might get some muddy farm land out of it.
spat
.950 JDJ
So, they invaded Ukraine, who wasn't a NATO member, because they were afraid of NATO.
And they had to invade *before* Ukraine joined NATO, otherwise NATO would have gotten involved ?
You see how insane that sounds ?
spat
.950 JDJ
So, if NATO says "if you don't leave Ukraine, we will send in troops", how long do they have to give that warning before destroying every Russian vehicle in Ukraine ?
You keep bringing up the "30 years" thing like it makes a difference. It doesn't matter *how* long you make an unreasonable demand for, it's still unreasonable.
If NATO gave Russia 30 days to get all their stuff out of Ukraine before we'd destroy it, do you think they're going to say "well, they only gave us 30 days, if it had been 60 we would have to take it seriously" ?
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
They absolutely are. the reason being, its thier perception of it, not yours .If its real to them, then you can bet your ass they will do something about it. The thing your not comprehending is they see it differently than you. The main issue here is the perception of a threat. Your insisting there is no threat. To the Russians there is . And to the Russians thats all that matters.
Trying to convince me or them they are wrong is impossible. I see a threat, they see a threat, you dont see a threat.Theres no winning that argument as we have proved ourselves.
Ukraine will be utterly destroyed in the next year or two. Right now half the country has no power and thier forces are retreating .The production level of armor and aircraft and missiles is 0. Where are they going to get several thousand new tanks and crews by the end of the year? Where? Where are they going to get the aircraft and trained crews? it doesnt even matter how much money you throw at it , the rates of production of high end weapons are slow. In spite of the economic advantages of the west , they cant produce the weapons needed in a given time frame Or as col McGregor calls it, No surge capacity. Thats a real problem for Ukraine.
I know I said it before, but the US can produce 20,000 155mm shells per month, while the minimum requirements for Ukraine are 6000 a day.
Thats only 3 1/2 days worth of shells per month. The Ukrainians are using them sparingly.
The Russians are producing 200,000 a month meeting the requirements of its military. Nothing is going to save the Ukraine now except a direct intervention of the US .
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
It establishes the fact that Putin didnt just wake up one day and decided he wanted to attack Ukraine and take over all of Europe . Everyone knew what would happen if Ukraine joined NATO. They did it knowing full well the Russians might attack. They preemptively armed Ukraine to the hilt for eight years . This demonstrates that it wasn't Putin trying to ""reestablish soviet borders"" Nonsense . thats not the case.
The cause of the war was NATO's attempt to expand into Ukraine.
Its not unreasonable , and it matters not that you think it is . Its exactly how the Russians see it . They see it as threat and acted on it just like they said they would . There's no surprise here.
I see it through the eyes of Russia and you dont . were not going to convince each other one way or the other . We see it it differently.
Robin
.577 Tyrannosaur.
Yes, they are allowed to do these things.
Robin
1341
.45 acp
That so far has been his saving grace on keeping the unrest down in russia. The russians haven't really used alot of younger draftees in Ukraine. They have emptied prison, ethnic minorities from remote regions and used rubles to fill his ranks in Ukraine. Once he uses up these resources and they have to start using younger draftees from the moscow and st petersburg area, then he's going to have a 80's afghanie problem.
spat
.950 JDJ
Doesn't matter where they come from, or whether they're draftees or volunteers.
What matters is that they aren't going to be part of the work force for the next 20 years.
Even the prisoners, unless they were serving very long terms.
spat
.950 JDJ
It is absolutely unreasonable.
You don't get to make unreasonable demands for 30 years and just deem them reasonable because you beat your chest about them for so long.
NATO didn't think Putin was stupid enough to do this, otherwise they would have had a "joint military exercise" with Ukraine.
That could have been done with zero warning and zero treaty anything. Just the same sort of "our guys and your guys are going to play in the mud for a few months" that we routinely did with other non NATO countries.
It wouldn't even take too many troops. Do you think Putin would have invaded if there were 10k NATO troops exercising with the Ukrainians in the Donbass at the time?
There's no way he could risk that.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
There were Nato troops in Ukraine at the time, they were pulled out just before the invasion.
holdover
.475 A&M Magnum
Thats your opinion. Were never going to see eye to eye on this so its a moot point.
