Ukraine - Russia Conflict (Original Title: Things are heating up in the Donbass)

spat · May 5, 2024

holdover said:
We've covered this ground before. they were concerned about NATO otherwise they would have invaded them the day after they allowed them to separate from the soviet union.

What specifically were they "concerned about NATO" doing ?

Ukraine joins NATO and the only difference that makes is the Russian window to annex Ukraine has ended.

I agree that is a major concern for Russia, but that doesn't mean their desire to annex Ukraine against their will justifies the invasion.

Or would NATO now be justified in invading Ukraine because they are concerned about Russia ?

Acer-m14 · May 6, 2024

if Ukraine went NATO

then Joes 10% goes to 25%

come on man

Mosinitis · May 6, 2024

holdover said:
You kidding me? they are going to make a special project out of the French.They are going to hit them so fucking hard they wont get up . They dont know what they got themselves into . Once they Id the general locations they will target every structure withen 2 miles . they wont miss. They will embarrass the the French . They are going to do everything possible to ensure none of them are alive

French were told as much and should have anticipated attacks on their troops. They still went in. Wonder what is their bigger plan. Escalate the conflict by having official mass burial for their troops? Retaliate by destroying Kerch bridge? I hope I am overthinking this.

Mosinitis · May 6, 2024

https://www.rt.com/russia/597049-putin-orders-tactical-nuclear-drills/

tirwin1 · May 6, 2024

holdover said:
Geography is one main concern. The Ukrainian border is less than 400 miles to Moscow . NATO forces have the ability to cross that distance in 1 day .By extending the border to say the Dnipro river or the other side of Ukraine , it buys Moscow reaction time in the event of an attack . . it can blow bridges it can mobilize forces and most importantly it has the ability engage NATO forces in the former Ukraine, Not on Russian soil , which is extremely important as can be seen in Ukraine right now.

I believe the invasion of Ukraine is justified for several reasons , the first being the loss of the entire Black sea fleet and shipping lanes . Ukraine was discussing the turning over of the Russian ports at Sevastopol to NATO. Crimea and Sevastopol are the crown jewels of this entire conflict which is why Russia stepped in and took the Crimea . It did not invade Ukraine proper, with the intent to over throw the government. It clearly stated that the NATO take over of Russian Naval bases is not going to happen . In other words We are forced to use the military if we cant come to an agreement. Its unacceptable and were going to fight for it if you do. I know your argument is they cant tell a sovereign nation how to conduct policy , and your correct. However they felt the loss of the Black sea fleet was to much and they were willing to fight for it . so thier choices were lose the entire fleet and shipping lanes or fight. So they took it. and only took Crimea. If they wanted to invade they could have used that as an excuse . They could have taken the CIA backed Maidan revolution as an excuse also. they didnt . In 2014 the Ukrainian goverment began shelling and killing Russian people in the breakaway republics of Donbas Luhansk in attempt to push those people back to Russia as those regions were Russian dominant and would not recognize the new government.

From 2014 to 2022 the US and NATO armed and Trained the Ukrainian army . The largest in Europe at the time 800,000 man standing army . Ukraine began moving forces towards the Crimea . Moscow did not like what it was seeing on the ground there was a real threat Ukraine was going to try to take back the Crimea .Which they could have never done without the help of the US and NATO , which establishes the fact they were a threat to Moscow . The Kremlin wanted talks with Kiev concerning Nato membership. Ukraine wouldn't talk. They were amendment that were going to join . The US made it clear to Ukraine and Russia that they and NATO would fully back Ukraine in the event of an invasion . This is also more evidence that the Russian invasion was not an attempt to invade Europe .

the mentality of the Russians was that the last two times they were invaded it came from the West . 20 million Russians were killed , and property destroyed .The last time they were allied with the invaders who stabbed them in the back .

And of course there are other things at play in this conflict that dont get a lot of attention, like the gas lines running from Russia through Ukraine to Europe . and the Chinese new silk road from China to Europe and who controls them . And then theres the fact if Ukraine did join Russia , NATO bases would be established along the entire border region with Russia . So you have NATO controlling the gas pipelines the entire Black sea and the new silk road and armies on Russias border, and economic sanctions. with the threat of breaking up Russia into several nations . so theres your justifications. Russia is fighting this war because it believes it is being threatened , and I agree with it . I know you dont but its what Russia thinks that matters ,not us .

I know you think Putin is hell bent on European conquest. LOL, For what? they have no need of natural resources , they are resource rich , They didnt invade Ukraine for the resources . This bullshit story is from the state department, the same ones that lie to us every day

If Putin goes past Ukraine into Poland and the Baltic nations will you concede you were wrong?

Putin's goal is not resources. It's a shorter and more easily defensible border. This is required because in a decade or two his demographic problem translates into a much smaller number of military age men.

It's not my argument although I think it has merit. Peter zeihan predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine roughly a decade ago based on this logic. He has been writing and lecturing on this topic for years.

spat · May 6, 2024

holdover said:
Geography is one main concern. The Ukrainian border is less than 400 miles to Moscow . NATO forces have the ability to cross that distance in 1 day .By extending the border to say the Dnipro river or the other side of Ukraine , it buys Moscow reaction time in the event of an attack . . it can blow bridges it can mobilize forces and most importantly it has the ability engage NATO forces in the former Ukraine, Not on Russian soil , which is extremely important as can be seen in Ukraine right now.

I believe the invasion of Ukraine is justified for several reasons , the first being the loss of the entire Black sea fleet and shipping lanes . Ukraine was discussing the turning over of the Russian ports at Sevastopol to NATO. Crimea and Sevastopol are the crown jewels of this entire conflict which is why Russia stepped in and took the Crimea . It did not invade Ukraine proper, with the intent to over throw the government. It clearly stated that the NATO take over of Russian Naval bases is not going to happen . In other words We are forced to use the military if we cant come to an agreement. Its unacceptable and were going to fight for it if you do. I know your argument is they cant tell a sovereign nation how to conduct policy , and your correct. However they felt the loss of the Black sea fleet was to much and they were willing to fight for it . so thier choices were lose the entire fleet and shipping lanes or fight. So they took it. and only took Crimea. If they wanted to invade they could have used that as an excuse . They could have taken the CIA backed Maidan revolution as an excuse also. they didnt . In 2014 the Ukrainian goverment began shelling and killing Russian people in the breakaway republics of Donbas Luhansk in attempt to push those people back to Russia as those regions were Russian dominant and would not recognize the new government.

From 2014 to 2022 the US and NATO armed and Trained the Ukrainian army . The largest in Europe at the time 800,000 man standing army . Ukraine began moving forces towards the Crimea . Moscow did not like what it was seeing on the ground there was a real threat Ukraine was going to try to take back the Crimea .Which they could have never done without the help of the US and NATO , which establishes the fact they were a threat to Moscow . The Kremlin wanted talks with Kiev concerning Nato membership. Ukraine wouldn't talk. They were amendment that were going to join . The US made it clear to Ukraine and Russia that they and NATO would fully back Ukraine in the event of an invasion . This is also more evidence that the Russian invasion was not an attempt to invade Europe .

the mentality of the Russians was that the last two times they were invaded it came from the West . 20 million Russians were killed , and property destroyed .The last time they were allied with the invaders who stabbed them in the back .

And of course there are other things at play in this conflict that dont get a lot of attention, like the gas lines running from Russia through Ukraine to Europe . and the Chinese new silk road from China to Europe and who controls them . And then theres the fact if Ukraine did join Russia , NATO bases would be established along the entire border region with Russia . So you have NATO controlling the gas pipelines the entire Black sea and the new silk road and armies on Russias border, and economic sanctions. with the threat of breaking up Russia into several nations . so theres your justifications. Russia is fighting this war because it believes it is being threatened , and I agree with it . I know you dont but its what Russia thinks that matters ,not us .

I know you think Putin is hell bent on European conquest. LOL, For what? they have no need of natural resources , they are resource rich , They didnt invade Ukraine for the resources . This bullshit story is from the state department, the same ones that lie to us every day

So, why exactly would NATO not be justified in invading Ukraine under the same reasoning?

spat · May 6, 2024

holdover said:
It would not be the same reasoning . Russia invaded for vital national security reasons like the black sea fleet, Wheres the threat to NATO?

Im sure you can find a reason to go to war if they really wanted to , but legitimately theres no real threat.

take a look at the battlefield too. Man its changing by the minute, cheap drones are just a monkey wrench in any plan either side had for the other

Used to be air dominance had to be established at least locally for armored forces to move , Now they have a whole new weapon system to clear before armor can be employed , how good the weapon systems are numbers of weapons, effective range of weapons have to be considered , and a lot of that is unknown at this point The battle field has just gotten that much more complex

Russia is at least as great a threat to NATO as Ukraine was to Russia.

Not that either of those threats is real. The only real threat is the one Russia poses to each if the former soviet satellite states. That threat has been well proven by invasion after invasion.

spat · May 6, 2024

holdover said:
Thats debatable. One of the reasons NATO is so weak is because they didnt perceive a threat and didnt spend the money on defense .

But thats neither here nor there , NATO can say anything it wants to get people to rally around them if they choose to go war . they dont need a permission slip

Obviously neither does Russia.

But, seriously, *why* would NATO want to invade Russia ? There is just no motive there.

Russian paranoia may be creating a self fulfilling prophecy.

Mosinitis · May 6, 2024

holdover said:
Im not sure of the accuracy of my post. I dont see much else on it , could be bullshit . Dont know, wouldnt be the first time I got duped.

There are number of sources that reported the same thing. 1500 French F.L. will go to Slavyansk with 100 already there.
French ambassador in Moscow was summoned to Russian Foreign Ministry. The nature of what he was told is not made public.

spat · May 7, 2024

holdover said:
They dont want to invade it they want to destroy it . Russia is anti globalism, anti gay, anti trans, Is not willing to submit its sovereignty to global leaders, world bank WHO, WEF, Russia wont go along with the program, Putin would not sell out, they are a thorn in the side of the globalists .

Ill let Putin explain it :

“because this operation also means the beginning of a radical breakdown of the U.S.-style world order. This is the beginning of the transition from liberal-globalist American egocentrism to a truly multipolar world based not on self-serving rules made up by someone for their own needs, behind which there is nothing but we striving for hegemony, not on hypocritical double standards, but on international law and the genuine sovereignty of nations and civilisations, on their will to live their historical destiny, with their own values and traditions, and to align cooperation on the basis of democracy, justice and equality.”

“Today, these ruling elites are raising the degree to which they manipulate the public consciousness right before our eyes. The ruling classes of the Western countries, which are supranational and globalist in nature, realised that their policies are increasingly detached from reality, common sense and the truth, and they have started resorting to openly despotic methods.""- Vlad Putin

Putin bemoans the fact that many of the Euro-Atlantic countries are actually rejecting their roots, including the Christian values that constitute the basis of Western civilization. According to him, these countries are denying moral principles and all traditional identities: national, cultural, religious and even sexual. They are implementing policies that equate large families with same-sex partnerships, belief in God with the belief in Satan. People in many European countries are embarrassed or afraid to talk about their religious affiliations, a situation which is sure to lead to a demographic and moral crisis.

Putin harshly criticizes the Euro-Atlantic countries for their decadence and immorality. He says they have abandoned their roots and their Christian values and equate belief in God with belief in Satan. He condemns European multiculturalism and dismissed the policy of tolerance as neutered and barren.

Listen, this is just a lot of nonsense, utter deceit, double standards, or even triple standards.’ ‘Do we want our schools to impose on our children, from their earliest days in school, perversions that lead to degradation and extinction? Do we want to drum in their heads the ideas that certain other genders exist along with women and men and to offer them gender reassignment surgery? Let me repeat that the dictatorship of the Western elites targets all societies, including the citizens of Western countries themselves.. This complete renunciation of what it means to be human, the overthrow of faith and traditional values, and the suppression of freedom are coming to resemble a “religion in reverse”- pure Satanism.’ This narrative has been evolving for many years but the danger for the West is the breadth of its appeal: by listing every country or people who the West has wronged, it is possible to build and mobilize a large constituency and consensus, including reaching into marginalized communities within western countries. It is high time for the West collectively to present a better story.

Putin's reference to the Collective West, July 7, 2022

" The so-called collective West led by the United States has been extremely aggressive towards Russia for decades. Our proposals to create a system of equal security in Europe have been rejected. Initiatives for cooperation on the issue of missile defense were rejected. Warnings about the unacceptability of NATO expansion, especially at the expense of the former republics of the Soviet Union, were ignored. Even the idea of Russia's possible integration into this North Atlantic alliance at the stage of our, as it seemed then, cloudless relations with NATO, apparently, seemed absurd to its members. Why? Just because they do not need a country like Russia, that is why. That is why they supported terrorism and separatism in Russia, and internal destructive forces and a "fifth column" in our country. All of them are still receiving unconditional support from the collective West. We are being told, we hear some people say that we started the war in Donbass, in Ukraine. No, the war was unleashed by the collective West, which organized and supported the unconstitutional armed coup in Ukraine in 2014, and then encouraged and justified genocide against the people of Donbass. The collective West is the direct instigator and the culprit of what is happening today. If the West wanted to provoke a conflict in order to move on to a new stage in the fight against Russia and a new stage in containing our country, we can say that it has succeeded to a certain extent. A war was unleashed, and the sanctions were imposed. Under normal circumstances, it would probably be difficult to accomplish this.

But here is what I would you like to make clear. They should have realized that they would lose from the very beginning of our special military operation, because this operation also means the beginning of a radical breakdown of the US-style world order. This is the beginning of the transition from liberal-globalist American egocentrism to a truly multipolar world based not on self-serving rules made up by someone for their own needs, behind which there is nothing but striving for hegemony, not on hypocritical double standards, but on international law and the genuine sovereignty of nations and civilizations, on their will to live their historical destiny, with their own values and traditions, and to align cooperation on the basis of democracy, justice and equality.

Everyone should understand that this process cannot be stopped. The course of history is inexorable, and the collective West’s attempts to impose its new world order on the rest of the world are doomed. At the same time, I want to say and emphasize that we have many supporters, including in the United States and Europe, and even more so on other continents and in other countries. And there will be more, no doubt about that.

To reiterate, even in the countries that are still satellites of the United States, there is a growing understanding that their ruling elites’ blind obedience to their overlord, as a rule, does not necessarily coincide with their national interests, and most often simply and even radically contradicts them. Eventually, everyone will have to face this growing sentiment in society.

Today, these ruling elites are raising the degree to which they manipulate the public consciousness right before our eyes. The ruling classes of the Western countries, which are supranational and globalist in nature, realized that their policies are increasingly detached from reality, common sense and the truth, and they have started resorting to openly despotic methods.

The West, which once declared such principles of democracy as freedom of speech, pluralism and respect for dissenting opinions, has now degenerated into the opposite: totalitarianism. This includes censorship, media bans, and the arbitrary treatment of journalists and public figures.

These kinds of prohibitions have been extended not only to the information space, but also to politics, culture, education, and art – to all spheres of public life in the Western countries. And, they are imposing this on the world; they are trying to impose this model, a model of totalitarian liberalism, including the notorious cancel culture of widespread bans.

However, the truth and reality is that the people in most of these countries do not want this life or this future, and really do not want the formal semblance of sovereignty, they want substantive, real sovereignty and are simply tired of kneeling, of humiliating themselves before those who consider themselves exceptional, and of serving their interests even to their own detriment.

Today we hear that they want to defeat us on the battlefield. Well, what can I say? Let them try. We have already heard a lot about the West wanting to fight us ”to the last Ukrainian.“ This is a tragedy for the Ukrainian people, but that seems to be where it is going. But everyone should know that, by and large, we have not started anything in earnest yet.

At the same time, we are not rejecting peace talks, but those who are rejecting them should know that the longer it goes on, the harder it will be for them to negotiate with us."

The West, which once declared such principles of democracy as freedom of speech, pluralism and respect for dissenting opinions, has now degenerated into the opposite: totalitarianism. This includes censorship, media bans, and the arbitrary treatment of journalists and public figures.

These kinds of prohibitions have been extended not only to the information space, but also to politics, culture, education, and art—to all spheres of public life in the Western countries. And, they are imposing this on the world; they are trying to impose this model, a model of totalitarian liberalism, including the notorious cancel culture of widespread bans.”

“If you want freedom, take pride in your country. If you want democracy, hold on to your sovereignty, and if you want peace love your nation. Wise leaders always put the good of their own people and their own country first. The future does not belong to globalists, it belongs to patriots. The future belongs to sovereign and independent nations who protect their citizens, respect their neighbors, and honor the differences that make each country special and unique.”

Back in the 1990s, Patrick Buchanan warned that big business interests were crushing U.S. industry by dominating both U.S. political parties and getting them to both support free-trade policies. “Within both parties,” he wrote in 1998, “nationalists are now in rancorous conflict with the globalists.”

Big problem is nobody ever listens to the other guys side of the story. Putin isnt wrong , We are . Everybody has listened to the prosecutors side of the story and are ready to come back with a verdict of guilty before ever hearing the defenses case . Listen to what the defense has to say .

The shift from a monopolar world to a the multi-polar one he describes is never very pleasant.

It typically involves a major world war as the different powers all vie for dominance.

I would not be in such a hurry to hasten it if I were him.

And it's unlikely to happen anyway. If the US loses it's dominance, you're likely to shift to a China dominant world, not some global love fest.

The US isn't the center of the leftist insanity either. We are as much a victim as anybody. I suspect the Chinese may be behind it in an attempt to destabilize the west.

There is no way Russia ends up better off out of this.

They had things pretty good playing second fiddle to the US. They will not like being China's lap dog.

JaguarJaguarGolf · May 7, 2024

When the US/Western pole is no longer dominant, China has increased its global reach through Africa and Central America and is poised to fill the vacuum. Russia won't submit to a China dominant World either, but will find it easier to coexist with China than US/Europe idiots (especially the European idiots who talk like they command vast military strength when in fact most of them don't have the military strength of one US Infantry Division, or one carrier group, and certainly not of a single ballistic missile submarine.) Europes' economic strength is fading quickly. Its native populations are being replaced by immigrants who do little to create economic strength and strain the social safety nets in place.

Most Americans do not want to participate in another European war. Most don't care about Ukraine, most don't want to belong to NATO. It's a money pit that has no real benefit to US citizens. Why are US taxpayers funding 90+% of Europes defense needs?

Our elected (?) office holders are money junkies, bought and paid for by entities that don't care what the American people want. A poll just showed that more than 60% of Americans don't trust the results of our elections. How the heck do we fix that?

Most Americans are so sick of the Middle East they just don't want any involvement over there at all any more. It's not our fight. It's not our oil. It's not our sand. It's not our pond.

The wild card in the global poker game is India. They have a large population, they have immigrant communities worldwide, they have great technology and STEM capability, they have a space program. They are not afraid of anybody and have taken on the Chinese before. They have also worked with the Chinese, Russians and US, playing games with each group against the other. They hope the US/Western , Russia, and China devastate each other and they will become a great power by default.

The idiot playing with matches in a puddle of gasoline is North Korea. He could start the world ablaze.

tirwin1 · May 7, 2024

holdover said:
If you believe that vaccinations have reduced the birth rate ,then add in the un-vaccinated immigrants , Well , its obvious where were headed .

Global fertility isn't just declining, it's collapsing

Fewer and faster: Global fertility isn't just declining, it's collapsing

The first part of my two-part look at this historic phenomenon

fasterplease.substack.com

This is why both Russia and China will decline rapidly in the next decade or two. In China's case it is quite possible a cohesive nation ceases to exist and it is broken up into different sections because of its geography.

fresch · May 7, 2024

So Nam 2.0, thanks France.

Robin · May 7, 2024

All dictators need a Boogey man, and NATO works for Putin.
Robin

Mosinitis · May 7, 2024

Robin said:
All dictators need a Boogey man, and NATO works for Putin.
Robin

Russian elections are referendum on their leader. U.S. elections are a contest of lies and liars.

Mosinitis · May 7, 2024

After dressing down of French ambassador at the Russian Foreign Ministry, French Foreign Ministry issued a statement denying presence or intent to deploy French Foreign Legion in Ukraine, calling such reports false. It also stated they recognize Vladimir Putin as legitimate leader of Russia and they are not seeking regime change.

British ambassador in Moscow was handed an ultimatum that any attacks on undisputed Russian territory by British long range weapons will be answered by attacks on British targets inside and outside Ukraine. This comes after British prime minister said that such use of British long range weapons is permissible.

Robin · May 7, 2024

Mosinitis said:
Russian elections are referendum on their leader. U.S. elections are a contest of lies and liars.

Yer such a dork!
robin

Mosinitis · May 7, 2024

Robin said:
Yer such a dork!
robin

Truth hurts?

Robin · May 7, 2024

Yes, I feel your pain.
Robin

spat · May 7, 2024

JaguarJaguarGolf said:
When the US/Western pole is no longer dominant, China has increased its global reach through Africa and Central America and is poised to fill the vacuum. Russia won't submit to a China dominant World either, but will find it easier to coexist with China than US/Europe idiots (especially the European idiots who talk like they command vast military strength when in fact most of them don't have the military strength of one US Infantry Division, or one carrier group, and certainly not of a single ballistic missile submarine.) Europes' economic strength is fading quickly. Its native populations are being replaced by immigrants who do little to create economic strength and strain the social safety nets in place.

Most Americans do not want to participate in another European war. Most don't care about Ukraine, most don't want to belong to NATO. It's a money pit that has no real benefit to US citizens. Why are US taxpayers funding 90+% of Europes defense needs?

Our elected (?) office holders are money junkies, bought and paid for by entities that don't care what the American people want. A poll just showed that more than 60% of Americans don't trust the results of our elections. How the heck do we fix that?

Most Americans are so sick of the Middle East they just don't want any involvement over there at all any more. It's not our fight. It's not our oil. It's not our sand. It's not our pond.

The wild card in the global poker game is India. They have a large population, they have immigrant communities worldwide, they have great technology and STEM capability, they have a space program. They are not afraid of anybody and have taken on the Chinese before. They have also worked with the Chinese, Russians and US, playing games with each group against the other. They hope the US/Western , Russia, and China devastate each other and they will become a great power by default.

The idiot playing with matches in a puddle of gasoline is North Korea. He could start the world ablaze.

Russia will absolutely *not* find it easier to live in a China dominant world.

China is deferential to other powers *now* because they know the US is the big dog.

Once China is in charge, they will not be so magnanimous.

China will treat the rest of the world the way the Soviets treated their satellite states. The shoe will be on the other foot for Russia.

Defilade · May 7, 2024

Drinkthekoolaid · May 8, 2024

Good article

Putin Doesn’t Bluff – The Burning Platform

Ukraine - Russia Conflict (Original Title: Things are heating up in the Donbass)

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