Ukraine - Russia Conflict (Original Title: Things are heating up in the Donbass)

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holdover

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Ukraine is facing an acute manpower shortage, stemming from both military conscription challenges and a severe civilian labor deficit. The crisis has constrained troop rotations on the frontline and crippled key industries like energy, construction, and agriculture. [1, 2, 3]
Military Manpower Crisis
  • Draft Evasion & AWOL Rates: Approximately 2 million men are wanted by authorities for draft evasion. Official figures indicate up to 255,000 soldiers are absent without leave (AWOL) and 56,000 are classified as deserters. [1, 2]
  • Soldier Fatigue & Reforms: Decimated by years of continuous fighting, long-serving troops face immense exhaustion. To curb desertion and boost morale, the government has introduced fixed-term contracts guaranteeing soldiers six months away from duty upon completion. [1, 2]
  • Recruitment Efforts: Kyiv has boosted military wages and initiated efforts to recruit fighters abroad to ease the burden on domestic manpower. [1]
Civilian Labor Shortage
  • Business Impact: About 75% of employers cite a lack of qualified personnel as the main obstacle to business development, with a severe structural gap where job vacancies far outpace the number of registered seekers. [1]
  • Economic Strain: The massive loss of working-age population—due to both military casualties and mass emigration—has driven up wages and contributed to inflation. [1, 2, 3]
  • Inclusivity Focus: To combat labor scarcity, the private sector has rapidly shifted toward hiring veterans and increasing workforce inclusivity. [1]
For more information on the current dynamics, read the detailed analysis from the Institute for the Study of War or explore the labor market impacts at Promotion Global.

To be drafted into the infantry in Ukraine is a death sentence. theres no going back till the war is over. Ive heard stories of foreign volunteer's not being allowed to leave, and had to cross the border illegally to get out


Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy boosts army wages and seeks foreign recruits to counter manpower shortage​


  • Ukraine will hike military wages and seek to recruit more fighters abroad, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed, as the army faces a manpower shortage after four years of war with Russia. Zelenskyy’s government said in May it would study possible measures to boost military personnel numbers after talks on how to end the war with Russia stalled. “We agreed on how to increase the financial resilience of our defence and further transformation of the Ukrainian army,” Ukraine’s president said on Friday after meeting key cabinet ministers. “The cabinet of ministers will approve a specific mechanism, and the government should start the first new payments as early as June,” he added.

www.theguardian.com

Ukraine war briefing: Zelenskyy boosts army wages and seeks foreign recruits to counter manpower shortage

Frontline soldiers to get better salaries and revised fixed-term contracts; Putin reacts to Ukraine’s increasing drone strikes. What we know on day 1,571
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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spat

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holdover said:
The population of Russia in 2026 is estimated to be approximately 143.4 million people, ranking as the 9th most populous country in the world

In 2026, the male population in Russia aged 19 to 50 is estimated to be roughly 18 to 19 million.

How many men aged 18 to 50 in Russia?


AI Overview


The total male population in Russia aged 18 to 50 is estimated to be approximately 31 million. This cohort makes up roughly one-fifth of Russia's total population of about 143 to 146 million, with the prime working-age group (25-54) accounting for slightly over 30 million males on its own

and if you really get down to it, 16 and 17 year old can fight, plus they have a tradition of women snipers pilots . I dont think they really have a man power issue ,
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That sounds like they have plenty left.

But only until you remember that they were already in a demographic collapse *before* the war.

30 million taxpayers to take care of a population of 146 million is already a catastrophe.

Now, without those young men around to have families, what's the *next* generation going to look like ? When what's left of this generation starts to retire, how fucked are they going to be ?

If you think Gen Z is getting screwed in social security here, that's nothing compared to what's going to happen in Russia over the next couple decades.
 
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spat said:
That sounds like they have plenty left.

But only until you remember that they were already in a demographic collapse *before* the war.

30 million taxpayers to take care of a population of 146 million is already a catastrophe.

Now, without those young men around to have families, what's the *next* generation going to look like ? When what's left of this generation starts to retire, how fucked are they going to be ?

If you think Gen Z is getting screwed in social security here, that's nothing compared to what's going to happen in Russia over the next couple decades.
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That happened to them after WW2. they suffered terrible losses. They arent walking away from this war without a bloody nose, thats for sure . they took some serious losses for sure. Time will tell if it was critical enough for them to end the fighting. I dont think it will be , but only time can tell .
 
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tirwin1 said:
Russia has the manpower advantage. Does Ukraine have the technology and adaptability advantage?

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Got to admit, its kind of brilliant


Its going to go into some kind of bidding war if Russia does the same , some kid on some island in the south Pacific with no skin in the game is going to work for the highest paying job .

The evolution of this is insane . Some 16 year old kid from Ashtulba ohio could make some good jing killing people on the other side of the globe with no chance of repercussions . seems wrong somehow . whos got high score in Ohio?


I got 52 this month at 100 bucks each! fuck school
 
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spat

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holdover said:
That happened to them after WW2. they suffered terrible losses. They arent walking away from this war without a bloody nose, thats for sure . they took some serious losses for sure. Time will tell if it was critical enough for them to end the fighting. I dont think it will be , but only time can tell .
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The problem is that a demographic collapse is slow moving. By the time the pain starts you're a generation or more too late to do anything about it.

I think they're already fucked, but it won't stop the fighting because they won't feel the real pain for another decade or two.

Also, this isn't WWII.

In 1930 the fertility rate in Russia was about 6 children per woman. That dropped to 2.8 by 1950, but that's still a growth rate.

Today it's 1.8. Anything under 2.1 means a shrinking population. A shrinking population is a time bomb. Lots of developed countries are running into that, and nobody seems to have a good solution, but Russia and China are way deeper in that hole than the west.
 
tirwin1

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spat said:
The problem is that a demographic collapse is slow moving. By the time the pain starts you're a generation or more too late to do anything about it.

I think they're already fucked, but it won't stop the fighting because they won't feel the real pain for another decade or two.

Also, this isn't WWII.

In 1930 the fertility rate in Russia was about 6 children per woman. That dropped to 2.8 by 1950, but that's still a growth rate.

Today it's 1.8. Anything under 2.1 means a shrinking population. A shrinking population is a time bomb. Lots of developed countries are running into that, and nobody seems to have a good solution, but Russia and China are way deeper in that hole than the west.
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China is literally the fasting aging nation on earth. Russia can't be too far behind given their birth rates and their losses in the war.
 
spat

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holdover said:
That happened to them after WW2. they suffered terrible losses. They arent walking away from this war without a bloody nose, thats for sure . they took some serious losses for sure. Time will tell if it was critical enough for them to end the fighting. I dont think it will be , but only time can tell .
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Right, but going into WWII they had an incredibly fertile population.

6 kids per woman.

And that dropped below 3 the generation after.

Going into this one they were *already* below replacement. They were *already* in crisis.

That's the difference.
 
Steal2B

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www.foxnews.com

Videos show Russians fighting at gas stations as Putin admits Ukraine strikes are causing fuel problems | Fox News Video

Long lines, shortages and confrontations at pumps are spreading across Russia after Ukrainian drones targeted key oil refineries and fuel infrastructure. (Credit: East2West)
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com

Screenshot_20260630_130013_Chrome.jpgScreenshot_20260630_125948_Chrome.jpg
www.foxnews.com

WATCH: Fights break out at Russian gas stations as Putin admits fuel shortages

Putin admits Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries are causing fuel shortages, as fights erupt at gas stations across multiple regions.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
 
Mosinitis

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Russia made a deal with India to import processed petroleum. Russia is still making a ton of money exporting oil to India at current oil prices.

Ukraine passed a law, now they can break into people's homes and kidnap them for NATO slave army.

The rift between Poland and Ukraine is growing and now effecting their military cooperation. Poland refusing to send MIGs and Ukraine is not sharing drone technology.

Russia is making gains at the frontline with increased pace.
 
Steal2B

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Mosinitis said:
Russia is making gains at the frontline with increased pace.
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Lol. Only on the NYGF.

"After years of fighting, Russian advances have slowed to a glacial pace. According to data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces captured over 15 times less territory in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025."

"Russia continues to launch heavy localized offensives, targeting key logistics hubs like Pokrovsk and making incremental thrusts near Kostyantynivka. However, these small territorial gains are being won in "meters rather than miles" and are highly localized."

"Military analysts, international intelligence agencies, and independent observers generally characterize the conflict as a stagnant battlefield stalemate where the strategic momentum has recently shifted in Ukraine’s favor."
 
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Steal2B

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Mosinitis said:
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Lol. So you go to a poster known for selecting and twisting open-source intelligence (OSINT) content for monetizing and propagandizing a pro-Russian or anti-Western perspective regarding the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Believing this unbalanced shit is how Putin's over optimistic yes men got him in to this mess. Hey, I don't have a dog in this fight and have no bets riding on the outcome of this senseless conflict. As far as their leadership, Putin and Zelensky both suck.
 
Steal2B

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Steal2B said:
Lol. So you go to a poster known for selecting and twisting open-source intelligence (OSINT) content for monetizing and propagandizing a pro-Russian or anti-Western perspective regarding the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Believing this unbalanced shit is how Putin's over optimistic yes men got him in to this mess. Hey, I don't have a dog in this fight and have no bets riding on the outcome of this senseless conflict. As far as their leadership, Putin and Zelensky both suck.
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"Ukraine faces its own immense challenges—including manpower strain, domestic infrastructure destruction, and dependence on Western military, Ukraine recently seized the strategic initiative.

Rather than a Russian victory, the conflict has hardened into a war of attrition that is steadily draining Russia's long-term superpower capabilities."

"While Russia still holds roughly about 15% of Ukrainian territory and continues a slow, grinding push in the eastern Donbas region, it is failing to achieve its core strategic objectives at an unsustainable cost."

"Advanced Ukrainian drone networks have created a transparent, high-risk "kill zone" extending 20 miles behind the front lines. This prevents Russia from moving troops, armored vehicles, or ammunition supplies forward, severely limiting their ability to launch any decisive breakthroughs."

To date, Russia has been unable to overcome this logistics paralysis.

"Long-range Ukrainian drone swarms regularly bypass seriously outdated Russian S-400 air defense networks. They have successfully struck oil refineries, gas infrastructure, and military munitions plants over 1,000 miles deep. Directly menacing Moscow and St. Petersburg, has shattered the domestic illusion of safety and forced the Kremlin to stretch its domestic defense resources thin."

"The Russian economy has been fundamentally warped into a pure "war economy". Ballooning military expenditure has triggerred anemic growth and high inflation, prompting internal warnings to Vladimir Putin about long-term stability."

" Russia has failed to topple the Ukrainian government, capture the capital city of Kyiv, or break the political will of the Ukrainian population."

Sorry to burst your wet dream Leonoid / Boris / Nakita / whatever but this is just the way it is right now.
 
Mosinitis

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So far every prediction about this war in the U.S. media turned out to be false.

Zelensky is desperate for ceasefire, Putin isn't. He knows he is winning.
 
Steal2B

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Mosinitis said:
So far every prediction about this war in the U.S. media turned out to be false.

Zelensky is desperate for ceasefire, Putin isn't. He knows he is winning.
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Putin is not winning. That's a current fact.

Being stuck in a stagnant battlefied stalemate is not winning for either party.
 
Steal2B

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Steal2B said:
Putin is not winning. That's a current fact.

Being stuck in a stagnant battlefied stalemate is not winning for either party.
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Being years in to a steady war of attrition with no end in clear sight is not winning for either party.



Ukrainian drone "kill zones" extending 20 miles behind the front lines thwarting Russian troop and supply movement is not Russia winning.

Long-range Ukrainian drones are now routinely striking oil refineries, gas infrastructure, munition supplies and military production plants deep in Russian territory threatening Moscow and St. Petersburg regions. This is not Russia winning.
 
Steal2B

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Steal2B said:
Putin is not winning. That's a current fact.

Being stuck in a stagnant battlefied stalemate is not winning for either party.
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Unsustainable military spending killing economic growth and fueling hyper inflation is not winning for Russia especially with Ukraine getting very deep pocket assistance. Russia can't win the spending war.

Failing the stategic objective to topple the Ukrainian government is not winning.

Failing the strategic objective to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people in this costly war is not winning.

In spite of his steady diet of being fed overly optimistic intelligence by fearful yes men, Putin knows he is in a quagmire.

Putin may have a number of mental conditions but he is not stupid.

To be accurate, both Russia and Ukraine are losing at this point and of late ... a broad spectrum of analysts are concluding Ukraine has discovered a few new strategic advantages in drone warfare that will at least prolong the conflict
 
Mosinitis

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Steal2B said:
Failing the strategic objective to break the spirit of the Ukrainian people in this costly war is not winning.
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There are daily attacks against Ukrainian Conscription agents. Not just by relatives of kidnapped men, strangers are also getting involved. This happens all over Ukraine. That's not a fighting spirit.
 
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Russia has destroyed every gas station in eastern Ukraine

Over 150 patrol stations have been destroyed in Ukraine over the past two months, and oil depots and other fuel infrastructure facilities have come under attack almost every week.

It wont affect the Ukraine army so much, but its going to absolutely bring the civil working population to a hault
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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Honestly, I don't think either side is winning at this point.

Russia is very slowly gaining small amounts of territory but it's hardly worth the cost they are paying to do so.

The Ukrainian economy and civilian population are being hit and suffering.

Russia is also having their economy hit hard now with new tactics and they are suffering nearly catastrophic unsustainable loses.

Its essentially turned into a WW1 static stalemate with modern drone death zones that neither side is gaining anything of significance from. It's an absolute strategic calamity for Russia. There's no way they can be happy or satisfied with how this has turned out.
 
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My guess was that by now, the U.S. would have the minerals and Russia keeping the gained lands.
Looking more like Ukraine gaining back land and possibly taking Russian lands.
We still keep the minerals.
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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I honestly don't think Russia can do anything of significance with their current tactics.

They need to do something totally drastic to change tactics and break the stalemate.

Russia needs to do something like use a tactical nuke, or a massive armored thrust in a new sector with an airborne behind the lines assault to take out the drone operators and support.

What they are doing clearly is not working, and will not work. It's totally ineffective.
 
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The nuke would be the dumbest move in my opinion, it would end Russia.
They must have every location mapped and, if they still have the means, take out the command and control, staging, manufacturing, etc.
I think that ship has sailed however and they wasted any opportunity in a WWII game plan.
 
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