Ukraine - Russia Conflict (Original Title: Things are heating up in the Donbass)

Drinkthekoolaid

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holdover said:
Ukraine has mounted another large drone attack against Russia overnight, launching hundreds of drones and once again targeting oil infrastructure and military sites near St. Petersburg.

Videos online appear to show large smoke plumes rising from an oil facility in St. Petersburg’s port. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine had successfully hit oil infrastructure in the port as well as military targets around the Kronstadt naval base.

Russia's defense ministry said some 400 drones were involved in the attack.
ByPatrick Reevell
July 4, 2026, 1:28 PM

abcnews.com

Ukraine launches major drone attack again on Russia

Ukraine launched a major drone attack on Russia with some 400 drones involved, according to the Russian defense ministry.
abcnews.com abcnews.com


Ukraine said on Tuesday it hit one of Russia’s largest satellite communication centers for the second time in just over a week, as Kyiv ramps up long-range drone attacks to pressure the Kremlin to end its four-year-old war.

The Dubna Satellite Communications Centre to the north of Moscow, some 500 km (310 miles) from the Ukrainian border, is used for intelligence gathering and the coordination of Russia’s armed forces fighting in Ukraine, President Volodymr Zelensky said.

Russia hasn’t confirmed the Dubna communication center was struck, but the governor of the Moscow region Andrey Vorobyov said a drone had hit an “administrative building” in the town with no reported casualties.


Its a war ,your gonna have that kind of thing , nobody is clean
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This war just keeps escalating over time.
 
Grimscale

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Steal2B said:
View attachment 285359
www.express.co.uk

NATO scrambles fighter jets as Russia launches horror attack and kills 14

Civilians always pay the price
www.express.co.uk www.express.co.uk
www.nbcnews.com

Russian strikes on Ukraine’s capital kill at least 22 ahead of NATO summit

The large-scale Russian attack using ballistic missiles highlights Ukraine’s shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles ahead of a NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com

www.aljazeera.com

‘A concession to Zelenskyy’s ultimatum’: Ukraine’s triumph over Belarus

President Zelenskyy demands Lukashenko shut down stations installed by Russia 'or we will'.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
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"Massive missile and kamikaze drone attack"

Kills 14.


not a very good ROI.
 
Mosinitis

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Civil unrest against NATO slavery is growing in Ukraine. Mobilization agents are attacked throughout the country.

In Lviv
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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Allegedly, Ukraine has hit 21 Russian Shadow fleet oil tankers in the previous couple days as part of a drone offensive.

Russia is now rumored to be halting all diesel exports.

This has to hurt.

Between Russia and Iran there is going to be a global oil/diesel shortage.



I remember reading the Tom Clancy book "red storm rising" many years ago and the plot essentially was soviet/Russian oil refinery's were severely damaged so they knew they were going to be facing a severe oil shortage so they preemptively attacked.

This entire series of events is not unlike what happened with the pre WW2 Japan oil embargo.


I wonder what China thinks of all this. They have to be feeling a pinch.


Countries have started wars for less.
 
spat

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Drinkthekoolaid said:
Allegedly, Ukraine has hit 21 Russian Shadow fleet oil tankers in the previous couple days as part of a drone offensive.

Russia is now rumored to be halting all diesel exports.

This has to hurt.

Between Russia and Iran there is going to be a global oil/diesel shortage.



I remember reading the Tom Clancy book "red storm rising" many years ago and the plot essentially was soviet/Russian oil refinery's were severely damaged so they knew they were going to be facing a severe oil shortage so they preemptively attacked.

This entire series of events is not unlike what happened with the pre WW2 Japan oil embargo.


I wonder what China thinks of all this. They have to be feeling a pinch.


Countries have started wars for less.
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Most of the Russian and Iranian oil has already been embargo'ed by most of the world for decades. Not a lot of impact left to get.

Russia exports crude to China over land, not so much refined prodicts via sea, so they're not going to feel much from this either.

This stuff sounds scary, until you realize it's not really all that different from the last decade or so.
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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spat said:
Most of the Russian and Iranian oil has already been embargo'ed by most of the world for decades. Not a lot of impact left to get.

Russia exports crude to China over land, not so much refined prodicts via sea, so they're not going to feel much from this either.

This stuff sounds scary, until you realize it's not really all that different from the last decade or so.
Click to expand...

It's a global commodity, the oil was going somewhere to someone. If that somewhere is no longer able to use the previously embargoed oil because now there is no mechanism to deliver it, they still want and need oil so they will buy it elsewhere competing on the global market.

Right?

So my thinking is that global oil consumption demand will only increase while available supply decreases. Some countries and regions will be hit harder than others, but there will be pain. If the pain is severe enough and long enough It might force some countries to make difficult and rash decisions.
 
spat

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Drinkthekoolaid said:
It's a global commodity, the oil was going somewhere to someone. If that somewhere is no longer able to use the previously embargoed oil because now there is no mechanism to deliver it, they still want and need oil so they will buy it elsewhere competing on the global market.

Right?

So my thinking is that global oil consumption demand will only increase while available supply decreases. Some countries and regions will be hit harder than others, but there will be pain. If the pain is severe enough and long enough It might force some countries to make difficult and rash decisions.
Click to expand...
It is. That's why oil prices here rise even though we're a net exporter.

Oil companies don't sell cheap here and then only export what's left. They sell to whoever will pay the most, import or export.

So, you're right, if China can't buy dirt cheap Russian oil, they'll have to pay full price on the open market and that will drive the price up.

But, that puts a sudden jump in their supply demand curve that the rest of the world doesn't see. So their demand will drop much more than the price increase the rest of us will see would suggest.

But, the bottom line is I don't think Iran and Russia are a big enough piece of the pie to force anyone's hand into doing something stupid.

A 10% drop in oil supply isn't enough to force a suicidal war over. You just use a bit less and pay a bit more.

Do people start robbing gas stations when the price of gas goes up 10% ? Or do they just drive a bit less.
 
Robin

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I view Putin as a creature of irony. With his obvious talents he could have easily achieved an acceptable version of his goal, to make Russia great again. In doing so he could have created an atmosphere where his neighbors would have wanted to be his friend and establish some kind of alliances with Russia. Instead he created a a theater of fear and distrust. Ultimately, he is a fool. And will be remembered as such, if there is anyone left to remember things.
Robin
 
spat

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Robin said:
I view Putin as a creature of irony. With his obvious talents he could have easily achieved an acceptable version of his goal, to make Russia great again. In doing so he could have created an atmosphere where his neighbors would have wanted to be his friend and establish some kind of alliances with Russia. Instead he created a a theater of fear and distrust. Ultimately, he is a fool. And will be remembered as such, if there is anyone left to remember things.
Robin
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Russia was in a position to be like Germany. A regional economic powerhouse with considerable international influence.

It is not and never has been a superpower. Putin really wanted to pretend that Russia was the Soviet Union, but it was only ever a fraction of that.
 
Steal2B

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"Hundreds of Peruvians have been lured to Russia by online advertisements promising lucrative civilian jobs, only to be stripped of their passports, forced into Russian military contracts, and sent to the front lines in Ukraine."

www.aljazeera.com

Peru probes trafficking of citizens to fight for Russia in Ukraine

Peru's public prosecutor says many of their citizens are victims of deception, lured by ⁠the promise of jobs.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com

"Recruiters used social media to target men—many with military or police backgrounds—with offers of well-paying jobs as cooks, guards, or security agents at factories and schools in Russia."

"Upon arriving in Russia, the recruits' phones were taken, passports were confiscated and they were forced to sign Russian-language military contracts."

"They were given minimal training and deployed to combat zones in Ukraine. An estimated 1,000 Peruvians have traveled to Russia via this network, with recruiters reportedly promising up to $20,000 in signing bonuses and monthly salaries between $2,000 and $4,000."

"Peruvian authorities are actively investigating the network for human trafficking and the Peruvian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has made hundreds of formal requests to Moscow demanding information and the safe return of its citizens."
 
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Drinkthekoolaid

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tirwin1 said:
This limited military engagement isn't really working out for the Russians.

Click to expand...


I've said earlier in this thread that Putin is probably going to be getting antsy at the growing Internal frustrations. This has to be starting to have a noticeable negative impact on regular Russians.

I think he's going to "escalate to de-escalate" this conflict and try to get it to a conclusion, and he's going to be doing it from a position of weakness and growing discontentment internally to try to prevent internal unrest

This cannot continue on this course without consequences.
 
L

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Drone War Enters Terrifying New Phase As Russia Deploys 300-MPH Jet-Powered Shahed​

Dramatic footage posted on X shows what appears to be a Russian Geran-4 jet-powered, one-way attack drone striking a passenger train in Ukraine.
If authenticated, the footage shows just how rapidly drone warfare is evolving beyond conventional two-stroke power plants toward miniature turbojets that sharply increase speed, compress warning and response times, potentially render many existing small-drone interceptors ineffective, and accelerate the overall tempo of combat across modern battlefields.


Ukraine's Defense Intelligence recently published a report on Russia's new jet-powered strike UAV, known as the Geran-4.
The report said the Geran-4 entered combat in May and can exceed 300 mph, climb above 15,000 feet, and deliver a 100- to 200-pound warhead against targets up to 279 miles away.

Drone War Enters Terrifying New Phase As Russia Deploys 300-MPH Jet-Powered Shahed<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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livingston said:

Drone War Enters Terrifying New Phase As Russia Deploys 300-MPH Jet-Powered Shahed​

Dramatic footage posted on X shows what appears to be a Russian Geran-4 jet-powered, one-way attack drone striking a passenger train in Ukraine.
If authenticated, the footage shows just how rapidly drone warfare is evolving beyond conventional two-stroke power plants toward miniature turbojets that sharply increase speed, compress warning and response times, potentially render many existing small-drone interceptors ineffective, and accelerate the overall tempo of combat across modern battlefields.


Ukraine's Defense Intelligence recently published a report on Russia's new jet-powered strike UAV, known as the Geran-4.
The report said the Geran-4 entered combat in May and can exceed 300 mph, climb above 15,000 feet, and deliver a 100- to 200-pound warhead against targets up to 279 miles away.

Drone War Enters Terrifying New Phase As Russia Deploys 300-MPH Jet-Powered Shahed<!-- --> | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
Click to expand...


Pretty much turning into cheap cruise missiles at this point
 
Mosinitis

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There is also a change in rules of engagement. After Ukrainian mass attack on Russian tankers in the Black and Azov Seas, Russia is attacking all shipping into Ukraine. Previous agreement that prevented this is no longer valid.
 
tirwin1

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This guy says the war will be over in 4 months. We'll know soon enough if he is correct or not.

Russia is methodically destroying Ukraine defenses, and the only response Zelenskyy has put together is flashy political promotion and media headlines to hide a reality that Russia is methodically destroying Ukraine defenses.

Western media says one narrative; the datapoints show something entirely different.

I give it four months, and it’s over.

Perhaps, that’s why President Trump: (A) pulled back from Patriot and Tomahawk missile sharing; and (B) has told his team to reengage both sides in peace negotiations now.

theconservativetreehouse.com

Ukraine Ambassador to the United States Removed from Duty - The Last Refuge

Olha Stefanishyna says she resigned. Volodymyr Zelenskyy says she was removed. Regardless of which storyline is accurate, the Ukraine Ambassador to the United States is no longer in position. There is no replacement. Stefanishyna is also under investigation for her connection with financial...
theconservativetreehouse.com theconservativetreehouse.com
 
Drinkthekoolaid

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It sounds like Ukraine is about out of air defense missiles.

It sounds like the US doesn't have any more to spare to resupply Ukraine.

Ukraine is going to be in a world of trouble soon if they can't stop Russia drone, missiles and bombers now.
 
Mosinitis

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In response to attacks on Russian commercial shipping in the Black and Azov Seas, Russia blockaded Ukrainian Black Sea ports by attacking shipping into and from Ukraine. The main bridge that would allow Ukraine to use Romanian ports was also destroyed.
 
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