Ukraine - Russia Conflict (Original Title: Things are heating up in the Donbass)

[holdover]

why dont you post something intelligent to support your brainwashed view of the world? Instead of your ""bullshit"" comments?

Ill tell you what bullshit is, the BBC being wrong every fucking time . Russians arnt retreating, Russians arent running out of ammo, Russians are not charging fortified positions with shovels. My God man, how dumb can you be?

 

[holdover]

More shit from another know it all.
Robin

You still waiting for that Ukraine ""spring"" offensive to take back Crimea? LOL

 

[Bigfoot]

Yesterday I spent time watching some more videos of the trench fighting/clearing going on.

Ho Lee Fuk !

Brutal stuff !

 

[holdover]

Yeah, its fucking nasty. slaughtering each other like dogs.

 

[Robin]

One thing for sure and factual, you don't know what I know.
Carry on professor.
Robin

 

[spat]

why dont you post something intelligent to support your brainwashed view of the world? Instead of your ""bullshit"" comments?

Ill tell you what bullshit is, the BBC being wrong every fucking time . Russians arnt retreating, Russians arent running out of ammo, Russians are not charging fortified positions with shovels. My God man, how dumb can you be?

And the Russians aren't in Kiev, a year and a half into their 2 week invasion.

It's a classic war of attrition now. Will Russia run out of men and material before NATO leadership runs out of money laundering schemes.

Not looking good for Russia, unless a better cash cow comes along quick.

Honestly, the best strategy for Putin at this point would be to book Hunter Biden for a Moscow art show.

 

[holdover]

It's a classic war of attrition now. Will Russia run out of men and material before NATO leadership runs out of money laundering schemes.

Not looking good for Russia, unless a better cash cow comes along quick.

LOL, Not a chance . How many tanks a month does Ukraine produce?? 0. How many aircraft? 0 . where is the Ukraine economy? the Russian economy is booming, the ruble consistently gains against the dollar . the Europeans have no more inventory of weapons to ship in any large quantity . Even Biden the moron let it slip out. Germany sent 50 leopards, US sent 100 Bradley's Half are confirmed destroyed with nothing to show for it . Ukraine will need at least 1500+ main battle tanks to make any kind of difference. Russia out numbers them 10 -1 in artillery. Ukraine is short artillery rounds, (We had to send them cluster bombs) Russia out numbers them in aircraft, Russia out numbers them in Infantry Russia just destroyed the ports in Odessa now arms will have to be offloaded in Poland and shipped overland where Russian spys will be watching everymove from the time they arrive . You guys think thats winning? its crystal clear ,they are fucked.

Russia will never run out of material . they hold half of Asia and are allies with the rest , Shit, the Europeans are still buying russian gas via third partys

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Yesterday I spent time watching some more videos of the trench fighting/clearing going on.

Ho Lee Fuk !

Brutal stuff !

It's super not fun looking
I've watched a lot from the civ div channel

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

LOL, Not a chance . How many tanks a month does Ukraine produce?? 0. How many aircraft? 0 . where is the Ukraine economy? the Russian economy is booming, the ruble consistently gains against the dollar . the Europeans have no more inventory of weapons to ship in any large quantity . Even Biden the moron let it slip out. Germany sent 50 leopards, US sent 100 Bradley's Half are confirmed destroyed with nothing to show for it . Ukraine will need at least 1500+ main battle tanks to make any kind of difference. Russia out numbers them 10 -1 in artillery. Ukraine is short artillery rounds, (We had to send them cluster bombs) Russia out numbers them in aircraft, Russia out numbers them in Infantry Russia just destroyed the ports in Odessa now arms will have to be offloaded in Poland and shipped overland where Russian spys will be watching everymove from the time they arrive . You guys think thats winning? its crystal clear ,they are fucked.

Russia will never run out of material . they hold half of Asia and are allies with the rest , Shit, the Europeans are still buying russian gas via third partys

This is all pretty accurate.

To summarize it in poker terms, Putin is "pot committed". He's not going to fold now no way. IMO snowball chance in hell he agrees to a peace deal now knowing full well NATO will just take the next 5 years to rearm and re equip Ukraine and they can do it all over again 2.0 in 5 year. Nope not happening.

Russia strategically needs to see this through to conclusion on whatever their perceived end state Victory looks like.

My .02 cents and I tend to view myself as a pragmatic on this war. I feel for the Ukrainian citizens, I don't think Ukraine government is.that great at all and I don't think Russia is as bad as they are made out to be, I think in many ways if you're objective enough to look at the 30,000 ft view the West and nato are the villains here. The whole situation well It sucks, it is what it is

 

[spat]

LOL, Not a chance . How many tanks a month does Ukraine produce?? 0. How many aircraft? 0 . where is the Ukraine economy? the Russian economy is booming, the ruble consistently gains against the dollar . the Europeans have no more inventory of weapons to ship in any large quantity . Even Biden the moron let it slip out. Germany sent 50 leopards, US sent 100 Bradley's Half are confirmed destroyed with nothing to show for it . Ukraine will need at least 1500+ main battle tanks to make any kind of difference. Russia out numbers them 10 -1 in artillery. Ukraine is short artillery rounds, (We had to send them cluster bombs) Russia out numbers them in aircraft, Russia out numbers them in Infantry Russia just destroyed the ports in Odessa now arms will have to be offloaded in Poland and shipped overland where Russian spys will be watching everymove from the time they arrive . You guys think thats winning? its crystal clear ,they are fucked.

Russia will never run out of material . they hold half of Asia and are allies with the rest , Shit, the Europeans are still buying russian gas via third partys

If Russia has a bottomless supply of men and tanks, then why are they sending in conscripts and museum pieces.

Also, the Rubel being strong against the dollar is *not* a good sign. It means that Russia's imports have fallen drastically. The Rubel is strong because there aren't a lot in global circulation, because people aren't accepting them for payment.

They may still be exporting petroleum in Asia, but they aren't selling it in Rubels, and when they buy stuff, they aren't paying for it with Rubels either.


As far as how this will turn out, it is exactly as I said. It will continue as a stalemate for as long as Biden and the other NATO allies are able to use it to funnel taxpayer money into their own pockets. Ukraine will never be given enough resources to win (if they win, the cash cow dries up). But they will always have just enough to keep the Russians from winning either (for the same reason).

Russia *will* run out, of everything, long before NATO does. The entire Russian GDP is less than half of California. If they went all in, total mobilization WWII style, they could just about match Texas on it's own.


Russia's *entire military budget* is slightly less than the revenue from Raytheon alone.

When you talk about losses, we could replace every tank lost by both side with M1 Abrams that are just sitting in storage without producing any new ones, or removing any in active service.

 

[holdover]

Some of what you say is true . the Russian GDP is growing, not shrinking. Whats happening there is similar to what happened here in ww2. production and growth went wild The Russians are ,or have built/building two new tank factory's with a production capacity of 90 tanks+ a month.

If Russia has a bottomless supply of men and tanks, then why are they sending in conscripts and museum pieces.

Not tanks, but men , they have to use conscripts in a war this large , We used conscripts in ww1ww2 korea vietnam . its not the conscripts its the training and leadership that suck , however, that being said , they have begun to adapt to western weapons and tactics

As far as how this will turn out, it is exactly as I said. It will continue as a stalemate for as long as Biden and the other NATO allies are able to use it to funnel taxpayer money into their own pockets.

So around 2 years ? You believe the Ukraine is going to defeat Russia and drive them back over the old borders?

No of course not, the west will eventually stop arming Ukraine and it will collapse on its own, ORRRR NATO jumps into the fight and who the hell knows what happens then.

less than half of California.

????? Lets just agree its not large. but it is growing .

Ukraine will never be given enough resources to win

You understand this and claim Ukrine can win? Over time they cant win . They did pretty dam good , Ill say that. but they lose in the end. Theres no path to victory and Russia wont stop until the threat is gone

When you talk about losses, we could replace every tank lost by both side with M1 Abrams that are just sitting in storage without producing any new ones, or removing any in active service.

that we could, but we wont , they will be lucky to get the 30 monkey model abrams in sept .

 

[TEOTWAWKI inc.]

 

[holdover]

My theroy is that a Russia must build an army that can fight NATO if they are attacked. They fully expect NATO to jump in and save the day at some point . They need to have an army trained and ready in the event that happens what they dont want to do is provoke NATO into an attack by being weak . they have to hold back , buy time and prepare , whether it happens or not. They want to deter NATO from entering the conflict at all costs, that means not loseing all your men in a victory . Russia must have over 1 million , probably 2 million men under arms for a deterrent . They are working on achieving that now . 350,000 Russians in Ukraine fighting now. they have 350,000 in reserve and conscripting more ,

 

[holdover]

What does a Ukrainian victory look like? and how will it be achieved?

 

[JaguarJaguarGolf]

What does a Ukrainian victory look like? and how will it be achieved?

Ukrainian Leadership in million dollar mansions in Switzerland

 

[spat]

Some of what you say is true . the Russian GDP is growing, not shrinking. Whats happening there is similar to what happened here in ww2. production and growth went wild The Russians are ,or have built/building two new tank factory's with a production capacity of 90 tanks+ a month.


Not tanks, but men , they have to use conscripts in a war this large , We used conscripts in ww1ww2 korea vietnam . its not the conscripts its the training and leadership that suck , however, that being said , they have begun to adapt to western weapons and tactics

So around 2 years ? You believe the Ukraine is going to defeat Russia and drive them back over the old borders?

No of course not, the west will eventually stop arming Ukraine and it will collapse on its own, ORRRR NATO jumps into the fight and who the hell knows what happens then.

????? Lets just agree its not large. but it is growing .

You understand this and claim Ukrine can win? Over time they cant win . They did pretty dam good , Ill say that. but they lose in the end. Theres no path to victory and Russia wont stop until the threat is gone


that we could, but we wont , they will be lucky to get the 30 monkey model abrams in sept .

You seem to think Russia can keep this up forever.

They can't.

NATO could keep this up forever, but they won't.

You say that Russia will fight this forever because they have to. Just because you need something doesn't mean you get it LOL.

A Russian victory would require Putin holding a victory parade in downtown Kiev.

A Ukranian victory would be Putin unable to enter Kiev without getting killed.

It's very simple, there are a lot of powerful people making a lot of money off this in the west. They have no intention or letting this end any time soon.

There are a lot of powerful people *losing* a lot of money over this in Russia, and they are not happy about it.

What I think will happen is that NATO will continue to bankroll this as long as possible. Then some people in Russia not named Putin will decide they've had enough and he will find something unpleasant, like his head, in his dinner one night.

Then Russia will rapidly claim to have won by inventing some BS victory condition like "having killed all the NAZIs in Donbass" or some such bullshit.

They will demoralize whatever is left of their troops and will start trying to figure out how to make money on the rebuilding.

As for the GDP data:

In 2022 the GDP for the state of California was $3.4T. The GDP for the entire country of Russia was $1.7T

The NATO military budget at $1.1T is nearly the size of Russia's entire GDP. NATO can completely support Ukraine in this out of just their training budget.

 

[spat]

My theroy is that a Russia must build an army that can fight NATO if they are attacked. They fully expect NATO to jump in and save the day at some point . They need to have an army trained and ready in the event that happens what they dont want to do is provoke NATO into an attack by being weak . they have to hold back , buy time and prepare , whether it happens or not. They want to deter NATO from entering the conflict at all costs, that means not loseing all your men in a victory . Russia must have over 1 million , probably 2 million men under arms for a deterrent . They are working on achieving that now . 350,000 Russians in Ukraine fighting now. they have 350,000 in reserve and conscripting more ,

It is utterly impossible for Russia to compete with NATO. It doesn't matter what they must do.

That's like saying my high-school varsity basketball team must beat the 1992 US Olympic team. It doesn't matter how important it is, it's not going to happen.

Russian GDP is $1.7T. NATO GDP is $18.4T.

It doesn't matter how scrappy your pit bull is, it's going to lose in a fight with a Bengal tiger.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

.It's very simple, there are a lot of powerful people making a lot of money off this in the west. They have no intention or letting this end any time soon.

Absolute truth and it's despicable.

 

[holdover]

It is utterly impossible for Russia to compete with NATO. It doesn't matter what they must do.

That's like saying my high-school varsity basketball team must beat the 1992 US Olympic team. It doesn't matter how important it is, it's not going to happen.

Russian GDP is $1.7T. NATO GDP is $18.4T.

It doesn't matter how scrappy your pit bull is, it's going to lose in a fight with a Bengal tiger.

you forget one thing, russia has nuclear weapons and wont accept a military defeat. the west doesn't want to provoke a nuclear war . so NATO has to be carefull too.

You seem to think Russia can keep this up forever.

They dont have to.

You say that Russia will fight this forever because they have to. Just because you need something doesn't mean you get it LOL.

They have no choice. win lose or draw

A Russian victory would require Putin holding a victory parade in downtown Kiev.

Thats very possible .

A Ukranian victory would be Putin unable to enter Kiev without getting killed.

thats ridiculous . Its something that can never happen

It's very simple, there are a lot of powerful people making a lot of money off this in the west. They have no intention or letting this end any time soon.

No doubt. but Russia gets a vote when this ends

In 2022 the GDP for the state of California was $3.4T. The GDP for the entire country of Russia was $1.7T

Thats pretty shocking , I thought you were just overstating it . that is a problem , It can be overcome to some extent because of the huge inventory of old soviet stuff and the use of loans , but in the long run its a loser. that being said the condition of NATO forces in inEurope arnt much better

The British Army has 227 Challenger 2 tanks

How many main battle tanks does Germany have?


Germany has about 350 Leopard 2 tanks today,

How many T-72 tanks does Poland have?


Poland – 130 T-72A/T-72M1/M1R in active service as of 2022.


Thats what Trump was bitching about , these guys invested nothing because the USA/ NATO had thier back besides the US NATO isnt in any great shape for a war either.

 

[holdover]

It's super not fun looking
I've watched a lot from the civ div channel

Yeah, its pretty hellish , I feel bad for those guys on both sides I dont watch to many of them , some are pretty gruesome.

 

[spat]

you forget one thing, russia has nuclear weapons and wont accept a military defeat. the west doesn't want to provoke a nuclear war . so NATO has to be carefull too.

They dont have to.

They have no choice. win lose or draw

Thats very possible .


thats ridiculous . Its something that can never happen



No doubt. but Russia gets a vote when this ends

Thats pretty shocking , I thought you were just overstating it . that is a problem , It can be overcome to some extent because of the huge inventory of old soviet stuff and the use of loans , but in the long run its a loser. that being said the condition of NATO forces in inEurope arnt much better

The British Army has 227 Challenger 2 tanks

How many main battle tanks does Germany have?


Germany has about 350 Leopard 2 tanks today,

How many T-72 tanks does Poland have?


Poland – 130 T-72A/T-72M1/M1R in active service as of 2022.


Thats what Trump was bitching about , these guys invested nothing because the USA/ NATO had thier back besides the US NATO isnt in any great shape for a war either.

Yes, the US has always carried NATO like a sherpa carries a fat tourist up a mountain.

The annual military budget for NATO is about $1.1T in 2023 (up from $910B in 2014). The US is about $860B of that (Germany comes in 2nd with $68B).

So, really NATO is the US. But when you compare, Russia's entire 2023 military budget is $75B. If they were In NATO they would be the second largest member.

If the US states were listed individually in the list of NATO contributors the top 10 places would all be US states, Russia would come in somewhere in the teens, with Germany and the rest of NATO behind then.

It really is that stark.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Yes, the US has always carried NATO like a sherpa carries a fat tourist up a mountain.

The annual military budget for NATO is about $1.1T in 2023 (up from $910B in 2014). The US is about $860B of that (Germany comes in 2nd with $68B).

So, really NATO is the US. But when you compare, Russia's entire 2023 military budget is $75B. If they were In NATO they would be the second largest member.

If the US states were listed individually in the list of NATO contributors the top 10 places would all be US states, Russia would come in somewhere in the teens, with Germany and the rest of NATO behind then.

It really is that stark.

Honest criticism, we have so much fraud waste and abuse in our government and military procurement and management process. Plus we are trying to staff and support roughly 200ish bases worldwide. Our budget is spread out all over the place. Russias budget is laser focused in their sphere of influence. We pay e-1s like 30k a year and counting benefits and additional expenses probably more like 60k a year just per e-1. Russia pays literal fractions of that. Just it's hard to compare strictly budgets to military effectiveness.

China is far more effective than their military budget would indicate. They fudge a lot of numbers.

 

[spat]

Honest criticism, we have so much fraud waste and abuse in our government and military procurement and management process. Plus we are trying to staff and support roughly 200ish bases worldwide. Our budget is spread out all over the place. Russias budget is laser focused in their sphere of influence. We pay e-1s like 30k a year and counting benefits and additional expenses probably more like 60k a year just per e-1. Russia pays literal fractions of that. Just it's hard to compare strictly budgets to military effectiveness.

China is far more effective than their military budget would indicate. They fudge a lot of numbers.

Sure, we have more waste because we have 10x the budget.

But if you think the Russian budget isn't getting siphoned off to corruption you're fooling yourself.

Also, our payroll is going to be drastically higher than theirs because we pay a lot more. But we also get a much higher quality of soldier out of it.


So, maybe a 10x budget doesn't translate to a 10x effectiveness, but it still puts us a literal order of magnitude higher.

Ukraine has fought Russia to a standstill for a year and a half using essentially NATO's spare change.

 

[Acer-m14]

Chris Christie gifts Zelensky handwritten lyrics to Bon Jovi’s ‘It’s My Life’ as ‘inspiration’

Chris Christie gifted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed lyrics to a Bon Jovi hit.

nypost.com

 

[spat]

Chris Christie gifts Zelensky handwritten lyrics to Bon Jovi’s ‘It’s My Life’ as ‘inspiration’

Chris Christie gifted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed lyrics to a Bon Jovi hit.

nypost.com

LoL, leave it to a RINO to send someone who's being attacked some autographed song lyrics.

He'd probably toss a drowning man a beer too, great guy.

 

[Mosinitis]

LoL, leave it to a RINO to send someone who's being attacked some autographed song lyrics.

He'd probably toss a drowning man a beer too, great guy.

Chris Christie is vital to sabotaging traffic on Kerch bridge. It's a game changer.

 

[spat]

NATO is quite capable of supplying as much material as it takes to continue the stalemate indefinitely.

Russia, not so much.

Russia will run out of material before NATO is out of the surplus they were going to have to pay to destroy. This is literally just going to rotate stock for the US so our shelves have fresh ammo on them.

Article says they're ramping production up to 80k 155mm shells a month in the US. Eventually going to settle at 1M/year. Russia just can't come close to that, and they running out of Soviet surplus.

Ukraine is eating through a key artillery shell, but the US Army has a plan to make hundreds of thousands more each year

The US is currently producing up to 24,000 155 mm shells a month, but it looks to ramp production up to over 80,000 shells a month.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

When the cheerleading western media is quietly and subtly changing how it's reporting on the war you know things aren't going well for Ukraine.

Why the Ukrainian counteroffensive is making little progress against Russian defense.

The counteroffensive against Russia by Ukraine is heavily backed by the U.S. and its allies. But little progress has been made as death toll rises.

www.usatoday.com

 

[spat]

When the cheerleading western media is quietly and subtly changing how it's reporting on the war you know things aren't going well for Ukraine.

Why the Ukrainian counteroffensive is making little progress against Russian defense.

The counteroffensive against Russia by Ukraine is heavily backed by the U.S. and its allies. But little progress has been made as death toll rises.

www.usatoday.com

The real subtle change is that the question went from "how long will it take Russia to conquer all of Ukraine" to "will the Ukrainians be able to push the Russians back across the border".

There is no longer a question of Putin dining in Kiev.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

The real subtle change is that the question went from "how long will it take Russia to conquer all of Ukraine" to "will the Ukrainians be able to push the Russians back across the border".

There is no longer a question of Putin dining in Kiev.

Yes I totally agree there the initial Russian strategy was very confusing and an epic failure. I cannot understand if they were seriously trying to capture kiev or not. I think they expected to largely be welcomed at least "Luke warm" level since there is so much Russian heritage in Ukraine. I don't think they anticipated the response. And I certainly don't think that they were anticipating the Americans essentially being the eyes and ears telling Ukraine exactly what when and where the Russians were moving. Ukraine did everything perfectly based on conditions in the opening month of the war and in likelihood survived because of this.

IMO russia was not anticipating this turning into a long drawn out conflict. They like believed this would be something akin to invading Iraq. Just go in with shock and awe and the Ukrainians will lay down their arms or offer up token resistance. Clearly that estimate was not accurate.

The real tragedy is I don't know how this ends except I know a lot more people are going to die. It's the regular people on both sides suffering for the political elites.