US and Iran conflict thread. ( merged threads)

[Steal2B]

FOLLOW THE MONEY

MIDDLE EAST INVESTORS ARE BETTING THINGS ARE NOT WORSE THIS WEEKEND​

April 26 (Reuters) - Most stock markets eked out small gains on Sunday despite hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough in the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran fading, with stalled talks underscoring the hardening positions ‌of both Tehran and Washington.

March and April US-Iran fighting has deepened instability in the Middle ⁠East, with Tehran striking its Gulf neighbours and there are conflicting reports of both negotiation progress or failures.

Recent fighting resuming between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a forceful assault on Hezbollah targets on Saturday, put a U.S.-brokered ceasefire under further strain.

Saudi Arabia	(.TASI) rose ⁠0.1% to 11,122
Qatar	(.QSI) was up 0.1% to 10,668
Egypt	(.EGX30) firmed 0.1% to 52,421
Bahrain	(.BAX) added 0.2% to 1,937
Oman	(.MSX30) fell 0.5% to 8,120
Kuwait	(.BKP) rose 0.3% to 9,469

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/most-gulf-equities-nudge-higher-despite-stalled-diplomacy-iran-2026-04-26/

 

[DoD1776]

Most of Obama's deportations were people caught sneaking in and sent back.

There *aren't* people sneaking in under Trump, so he's got to hunt down the ones that are here and have blended into society.

That is 100% a success story.

Illegal border crossing numbers plummeted in February: report https://share.google/qGzWVNdwgOiq1fNT2

i wish I could live in the bubble you live in.

But this must be part of trumps 37d chess plan right?

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/10/white-house-house-republicans-mass-deportations

 

[Defilade]

i wish I could live in the bubble you live in.

But this must be part of trumps 37d chess plan right?

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/10/white-house-house-republicans-mass-deportations

View attachment 282268

Yes just trust the plan.

 

[DoD1776]

Yes just trust the plan.

WWGIWGALGBTQ++++++

 

[Defilade]

"

 

[holdover]

 

[Saltwater60]

Yea, there's different sects of all of them that disagree on the details.

But, the bottom line is that all of them from all 3 religions believe in the same God, the god of Abraham.

The Jews and Christians mostly gave up killing each other over the details centuries ago. You don't see Baptists killing Catholics like you do the Sunnis and Shias.

The Muslims will get there sooner or later.

I think assuming the Muslims will stop killing themselves and others at some point might be short sighted.
I know there are plenty of “Christian” churches I wouldn’t step foot in but that doesn’t mean I’d ever do them harm. Of course there are some wackos that have done some bad things under the name of whatever religion they claim to be so they are the exception to the rule and those people deserve whatever they get.

 

[Saltwater60]

Reports from southeast Asia ( seeming to cite Iranian sources) claim that one-fourth of the IRG's asymmetric fleet of 1000 speedboats were destroyed as collateral damage during the March US and Isreal strikes but most remain intact since they were kept in tunnels or civilian areas.

These sources also claim that the Somalia Ambassador to Ethiopia is claiming to shutdown (with potential help from Iran backed Houtis in Yemen) the narrow marine transport bottleneck (Bab al-Mandab) with speedboats to shut off another 5-10% of the world's oil supply (mostly from Saudi Arabia's alternate pipelines just placed back in service) and 10-15% of world trade. Today the Somalia press is distancing themselves from the Ambassodor's claim.

Best of luck to them. Why aren’t we using drones to hit all these small machine gun boats? Sink them all.

 

[spat]

I think assuming the Muslims will stop killing themselves and others at some point might be short sighted.
I know there are plenty of “Christian” churches I wouldn’t step foot in but that doesn’t mean I’d ever do them harm. Of course there are some wackos that have done some bad things under the name of whatever religion they claim to be so they are the exception to the rule and those people deserve whatever they get.

I think they've got another century, two at the most before the violence is relegated to a fringe.

Look at where the mideast has gotten in the last couple decades. With Iran gone, I think most of the big players want to be prosperous more than they want to be righteous.

Hell, they're actually talking about fighting on the same side as Isreal to get rid of the Iranian threat. And the reason they're fighting really is the very real Iranian threat and not some religious bullshit.

The way to tamp down on extremism is to build a strong middle class with high social mobility. People get stupid when they think there are no consequences for their actions.

In the past they had a ton of violence because people were poor with no way out. We have extremism from the other direction, the antifa brats are well off, but they don't think there's any risk of losing that because they've never been told "no" in their life.

But, when you have high mobility, the poor spend their effort getting richer and the rich have to worry about losing what they've got if they get too stupid with it, so everyone behaves.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Back on topic....

What happens next?

Does the cease fire hold, or do the bombings resume?


Somewhat related, I can't help but think this conflict is having an impact on China, both their economy and desires for Taiwan. Their oil supply is being choked off similar to the 1939 Japanese oil embargo, but at the same time the US is using vast amounts of hard to replace missile interceptors that China is probably delighted over.

 

[stokes]

In the past they had a ton of violence because people were poor with no way out. We have extremism from the other direction, the antifa brats are well off, but they don't think there's any risk of losing that because they've never been told "no" in their life.

But, when you have high mobility, the poor spend their effort getting richer and the rich have to worry about losing what they've got if they get too stupid with it, so everyone behaves.

I think in the 50's and 60's they were at that point. Seems to me that most of them were living a more western lifestyle than the hardline muzzie shit. Then came the 70's and the radicals started their ancient technique of killing the infidels in their own ranks. The entire mid east fell in line, Some fell harder but they all disavowed western influence. And here we are.

I can't help but think this conflict is having an impact on China, both their economy and desires for Taiwan. T

This entire shit is all about China. First he took Venezuela a big supplier of sanctioned, cheap oil to China. The Iran mess is more about the same shit than it is about fighting for Israel, its just a convenient cover for the real goal. Netenyahu didnt talk Trump into anything, this was his plan all along.

 

[tirwin1]

The latest from Charlie Garcia. I don't where the hell he gets all his information (supposedly open sourced) but his level of detail is impressive. He kinda sorta concedes he was wrong about the timing of the next military action. He now says Trump is waiting because the lack of oil exports is wreaking as much havoc on iranian infrastructure as the marines could. In particular the money has stopped flowing to all the terror groups in lebanon, gaza and yemen. You have to subscribe to get his latest prediction (at $720 a year I'll pass) but my guess is he still thinks the marines go in because he still claims the stock market has not correctly priced in what is coming.

The President Walks Into the Situation Room at 10 AM Today With Three Loaded Pistols on the Table and Wednesday's Deadline Pressing Against His Ribs. The First Trigger He Pulls Decides the Iran War.

The forces are positioned. The order is written. The legal authorization is in window through Wednesday. The President has not given the order, and there are five reasons.

substack.com

His latest graphic is interesting:

 

[tirwin1]

 

[GOPerfect]

i wish I could live in the bubble you live in.

But this must be part of trumps 37d chess plan right?

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/10/white-house-house-republicans-mass-deportations

View attachment 282268

Of course, this quote is not in the least bit accurate.

 

[stokes]

The latest from Charlie Garcia.

He has valid sounding points. Too add, I think Trumps stall is intended to drag out the economic damage being done to China as long as possible without wasting our military assets. Militarily, Iran is pretty much done, seems to me that all they have is bodies to throw at any invasion we may or may not throw at them. I dont think we'll see that as that is exactly what they are banking on thinking if they can shed enough American blood, we will lose our will to fight.