Ukraine - Russia Conflict (Original Title: Things are heating up in the Donbass)

[GOPerfect]

Well, to be fair, the US went into Kuwait and brought along a bunch of cheerleaders for legitimacy.

They brought along a bunch of non NATO members too.

And so far I haven't seen any discussion of NATO itself getting involved here either. Just NATO members acting outside of the auspices of that organization. Same as Desert Storm

NATO has indeed had talks about this exact things.

They are going down a rather slippery slope.

 

[spat]

NATO has indeed had talks about this exact things.

They are going down a rather slippery slope.

Well, if Russia thinks their little misadventure is justified because they don't want NATO on their doorstep, then surely NATO can say the same thing about Russia on theirs right ?

 

[spat]

yes I do.

Seems a strange hill for him to want to die on.

Why do you think he wants Ukraine so badly he's willing to commit suicide if he can't have it ?

 

[Blimey]

OMG, you can't be that naive. the Russian position will be that NATO is attacking them they will respond in kind. If they dont, they lose anyway.

they arent going to just sit there and get pounded by NATO jets, thats ridiculous, whats NATO going to do? Attack them?

The proper escalatory path for russia in this scenario is to do as spat said: shoot back at NATO planes--over ukraine. As nato would not be shooting at russian runways russia would presumably not shoot nato runways.

Many people much smarter than me can predict what putin would do but a rational actor in his capacity would not attack nato geography if his assets were destroyed in ukraine. It makes no sense because he cannot win in a war against nato and he knows it. He also knows that the west has absolutely zero appetite for invading russia. Does not want to deal with that, doesn't want its land, etc. He could not possibly believe nato would press the matter and go past ukraine.

This is something I think many are missing. Russia has not attacked any member nations of NATO. If NATO attacks Russia, they will be the aggressor, at least in the eyes of Russia.

Russia will retaliate with a vengeance, the likes that the world has never seen before.

If you step in to help a friend after he's attacked you're not the aggressor.

Nope....

If hundreds of NATO planes come to the aid of The Ukraine, Russia will see that as an act of war, an aggression. He will fight back with all of his tools of war. He will not turn tail back to the Motherland.

NATO knows this. He has attacked no NATO nation, if NATO attacks, it will be an aggressive move.

Oh, he absolutely will turn tail. That's an absolute fact. He still hasn't taken any ukranian cities. Now with his supply lines turned to target practice and he can't fly a mosquito over ukraine without it being taken out he's going to dig in to a country he hasn't even come close to pacifying? He has only two options: 1) run back home, or 2) launch some nukes and hope that somehow works to his benefit.

In an all out war with nato russia's military in a country they are actively unable to control their military would be gang banged.

 

[Blimey]

Aggression by NATO will be seen as an act of war, its real simple.

Nato has no intention of defeating Russia there, they are planning to bleed her in a guerrilla war that will last for years and break her economy.

I agree withj bolded and I think this is most likely what will happen--nato is not likely to be involved militarily. Apparently the sanctions against iran were absolutely devastating to its economy and the world can do major damage to russia. In time putin will also declare sanctions an act of war, I am sure.

 

[spat]

SUn tsu called it death ground.

Never put an enemy on death ground, in other words trapped with no where to go but fight. I know you dont see it that way, but thats how the Russians would see it.

Back across the border into Russia is hardly "no where to go".

If Putin is really as crazy as you guys make him out to be, then he needs to go. You cannot appease mad dictators.

If he takes Ukraine, then tomorrow it will be something else, and he will just be more powerful.

Appeasement was stupid in the 1930s and it's stupid now. You're trying to avoid a fight you can easily win by getting yourself into a fight you may not.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

That's clever. We won't send our planes into the conflict and get in a war with russia...so we'll just give them to ukraine.

Anyway, Kyivpost is obviously a biased source, but:

Ukraine’s Depleted Airforce to Receive 70 Additional Fighter Jets from East European Countries - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice

Three NATO-member countries are providing the Ukrainian Airforce with more than 70 planes to defend the skies and… - Mar. 01, 2022. By Kyiv Post

www.kyivpost.com

That's massively noteworthy if true. Combat missions from poland.

kyivpost twitter says EU Parliament today is having a vote to start the ukraine-into-EU process, though typically this is a multi-year process.

I really really think that opens Pandora's box

That makes those polish airfields legitimate military targets for Russia to lob a few missiles at.

And Poland is a separate sovereign country and a NATO member. You can bet that Russia isn't going to just sit idly by while"Ukrainian" pilots fly NATO jets from NATO territory to kill Russians and not do anything about it.

You also know darn well that the first time a missile or bomb lands in Poland how much of an escalation that will be. It will be article 5.



Actions like this lead me to believe ww3 is looking increasingly likely. It will just take one bad decision made by idiot politicians or woke generals or caused through simple human error or miscalculation.



This is very alarming. I hope everyone understands what this move means.

 

[GOPerfect]

If you step in to help a friend after he's attacked you're not the aggressor.

Correct, according to our laws.

Not correct when speaking of the NATO charter.

 

[GOPerfect]

The proper escalatory path for russia in this scenario is to do as spat said: shoot back at NATO planes--over ukraine. As nato would not be shooting at russian runways russia would presumably not shoot nato runways.

Many people much smarter than me can predict what putin would do but a rational actor in his capacity would not attack nato geography if his assets were destroyed in ukraine. It makes no sense because he cannot win in a war against nato and he knows it. He also knows that the west has absolutely zero appetite for invading russia. Does not want to deal with that, doesn't want its land, etc. He could not possibly believe nato would press the matter and go past ukraine.

If you step in to help a friend after he's attacked you're not the aggressor.

Oh, he absolutely will turn tail. That's an absolute fact. He still hasn't taken any ukranian cities. Now with his supply lines turned to target practice and he can't fly a mosquito over ukraine without it being taken out he's going to dig in to a country he hasn't even come close to pacifying? He has only two options: 1) run back home, or 2) launch some nukes and hope that somehow works to his benefit.

In an all out war with nato russia's military in a country they are actively unable to control their military would be gang banged.

Does he want the cities? Do you know his endgame?

I know that I do not.

 

[holdover]

Seems a strange hill for him to want to die on.

Why do you think he wants Ukraine so badly he's willing to commit suicide if he can't have it ?

I dont, I think he miscalculated.

 

[Blimey]

Correct, according to our laws.

Not correct when speaking of the NATO charter.

NATO has put troops elsewhere in the past though. They can "interpret" it in some way...but anyway to your point it could be EU at large and not officially NATO.

 

[Blimey]

Does he want the cities? Do you know his endgame?

I know that I do not.

I think he just wants more land for russia. He laments the soviet union's demise. He's said this in the past and consistently.

 

[Vapor]

I don't want anymore wars, but I did laugh my ass off at this.

 

[GOYABEAN]

It's a shit show either way you slice it?

 

[spat]

NATO has put troops elsewhere in the past though. They can "interpret" it in some way...but anyway to your point it could be EU at large and not officially NATO.

NATO doesn't actually have any troops per se.

It is all just the member nations militaries.

They can choose to wear whatever hat they want when they act. That is a purely political decision.

 

[holdover]

Back across the border into Russia is hardly "no where to go".

Yes. because to them, its only a matter of time , may as well get it overwith. Dont have any doubts that if pushed they will pull the trigger.

If China sunk every ship of ours in the Pacific, and took all of islands ,would you think they may want to take California? (dont know why they would want it but still) the threat is still real .

Thats kind of how the Russians see it.

 

[GOPerfect]

NATO has put troops elsewhere in the past though. They can "interpret" it in some way...but anyway to your point it could be EU at large and not officially NATO.

Where have they done it recently that the nation they went after had the power to fight back?

 

[spat]

Correct, according to our laws.

Not correct when speaking of the NATO charter.

They could just change the charter if they wanted.

Or ignore it and bomb anyway. What's the difference.

 

[Blimey]

NATO doesn't actually have any troops per se.

It is all just the member nations militaries.

They can choose to wear whatever hat they want when they act. That is a purely political decision.

True--I think they have been under the nato banner, though. But on a very limited basis.

Russia is now using shotgun approach on kyiv. I don't know where it stops but overall trajectory is for EU involvement.

Honestly I'm going to take some cash out of the bank and stock up on some preps that have been running low.

 

[Celt]

I wish I could stay, gotta get ready for work.

Do not forget, State of The Union is tonight.

Cliff notes....


We're fucked and we can thank all leftists and the swamp for it. When shtf and there is no rule of law they should be tracked down and thanked face to face.

 

[spat]

Yes. because to them, its only a matter of time , may as well get it overwith. Dont have any doubts that if pushed they will pull the trigger.

If China sunk every ship of ours in the Pacific, and took all of islands ,would you think they may want to take California? (dont know why they would want it but still) the threat is still real .

Thats kind of how the Russians see it.

This would be more like us invading the Phillipines, then when China sends troops in to help them fight we act like it's an existential threat to our very existence and launch a full scale nuclear attack over it.

The concept is insane.

 

[Blimey]

Putin using strategic nukes in this scenario just very simply makes no sense. It is entirely illogical.

Now let's say nato/eu starts launching missions to ukraine and then russia says cut it out or else we'll use a tactical nuke on that airbase, and it does so. Then what? That is a move I could understand. And I don't know what our response could be at that point other than to either back off or try and nuke one of his airbases.

 

[spat]

It is really simple. If NATO, or even just the US gets involved directly, then Russia needs to decide if they want to retreat to their borders or launch nuclear Armageddon. Those are their only choices.

If they are truly insane enough to take the second option, then they were going to do that eventually no matter what we do. Might as well get it over with.

 

[holdover]

This would be more like us invading the Phillipines, then when China sends troops in to help them fight we act like it's an existential threat to our very existence and launch a full scale nuclear attack over it.

The concept is insane.

not even close.

 

[holdover]

Putin using strategic nukes in this scenario just very simply makes no sense. It is entirely illogical.

Now let's say nato/eu starts launching missions to ukraine and then russia says cut it out or else we'll use a tactical nuke on that airbase, and it does so. Then what? That is a move I could understand. And I don't know what our response could be at that point other than to either back off or try and nuke one of his airbases.

Thats right. but once you open that box , it will only get worse.

 

[Phazer]

It is really simple. If NATO, or even just the US gets involved directly, then Russia needs to decide if they want to retreat to their borders or launch nuclear Armageddon. Those are their only choices.

If they are truly insane enough to take the second option, then they were going to do that eventually no matter what we do. Might as well get it over with.

Holy shit!

 

[spat]

not even close.

It's a lot closer than your analogy.

You act like Ukraine is part of Russia and not It's own soverign state that Russia has "illegally" invaded.

Any Russian troops in there are there illegally and are fair game for anyone who wants to target them. If Putin doesn't see it that way, that's his problem.

 

[GOPerfect]

They could just change the charter if they wanted.

Or ignore it and bomb anyway. What's the difference.

No difference, I guess. Why have rules, bylaws and guide lines at all.

 

[GOPerfect]

True--I think they have been under the nato banner, though. But on a very limited basis.

Russia is now using shotgun approach on kyiv. I don't know where it stops but overall trajectory is for EU involvement.

Honestly I'm going to take some cash out of the bank and stock up on some preps that have been running low.

Best thing said in this thread.

All should be thinking a bit long term.

 

[Phazer]

Just for fun....

Dee Snider Approves of Ukraine Using 'We're Not Gonna Take It' as Battle Cry

Twisted Sister's Dee Snider has endorsed the use of his 1984 hit single "We’re Not Gonna Take It" by Ukrainians amid Russia's invasion.

www.newsmax.com