Ukraine - Russia Conflict (Original Title: Things are heating up in the Donbass)

[spat]

Sure , but the Russians have a say too. Me thinks they have no intention of negotiating anything but A Ukrainian unconditional surrender .

The best terms they are going to get .

I don't think we'll go for that.

And we can beat them the same way we did in the cold war, we can just spend them into the dirt.

I don't see Ukranians giving up as long as the weapons keep flowing, and I don't see us stopping the flow of weapons as long as the right people are getting rich from it.

I don't think this will last past 2023, and I don't think the Russians are going to like how it ends.

At least, I *hope* it doesn't go past the end of the year, things will have gotten real sporty otherwise.

How long do you think Russia can afford to prosecute this war ? Because we have a track record of doing this for decades if need be.

 

[holdover]

And we can beat them the same way we did in the cold war, we can just spend them into the dirt.

The trick is, We have to outspend them before they reach Dniper river. (NAGONNAHAPEN)

I don't see Ukranians giving up as long as the weapons keep flowing,

Thats the thing, they are no longer a sovereign state They are 100% dependent on other countries to exist. It is now a failed state .


According to Col Douglas Macgreggor ,the population Of Ukraine was 37-39 million at the start of the war. because Russia captured entire regions, because of people fleeing from the war , there are roughly 19 million Ukrainians left in ""free"" Ukraine. 50% are women 25% are to old,25% are to young.

How long do you think Russia can afford to prosecute this war ? Because we have a track record of doing this for decades if need be.

Russia is 100% self sufficient, they can do it for a long time. They have tradeing partners like Kuwait and India who buy thier oil and gas and sell it back to the US whores for profit ,Russia isnt going anywhere. Ukraine is

the situation in Ukraine is bleak . They have no answer for whats coming. thier defense is going to crack and they have nothing to conduct large offensive operations with anymore. According to what I have read, Ukraine has used up 7 years production worth of javlin missles.in less than a year. the consumption rate exceeds the production rate which makes it mathematically impossible to sustain . If the US orders 100,000 javlin missles it will take 10 years or more to get them. It isnt a question of money , Its a question of production rate. the Germans had the same problem in WW2 it could not produce enough tanks, fighters to keep up with the losses and even though they had great stuff, and better tactics and training they lost .

Ukraine has no means to produce enough war material to keep them going, and the west isnt giving them enough to hold back the Russians .

In a short time the Russians will launch a massive 3 prong offensive again , the Ukraines simply dont have the means to stop it .

Not sure why you cant see this, but they are losing badly. for the moment they are holding their own in heavily fortified positions they cant do anything else. Just a matter of time. And the Russians wont quit until they hit the Dniper

 

[tirwin1]

The trick is, We have to outspend them before they reach Dniper river. (NAGONNAHAPEN)



Thats the thing, they are no longer a sovereign state They are 100% dependent on other countries to exist. It is now a failed state .


According to Col Douglas Macgreggor ,the population Of Ukraine was 37-39 million at the start of the war. because Russia captured entire regions, because of people fleeing from the war , there are roughly 19 million Ukrainians left in ""free"" Ukraine. 50% are women 25% are to old,25% are to young.

Russia is 100% self sufficient, they can do it for a long time. They have tradeing partners like Kuwait and India who buy thier oil and gas and sell it back to the US whores for profit ,Russia isnt going anywhere. Ukraine is

the situation in Ukraine is bleak . They have no answer for whats coming. thier defense is going to crack and they have nothing to conduct large offensive operations with anymore. According to what I have read, Ukraine has used up 7 years production worth of javlin missles.in less than a year. the consumption rate exceeds the production rate which makes it mathematically impossible to sustain . If the US orders 100,000 javlin missles it will take 10 years or more to get them. It isnt a question of money , Its a question of production rate. the Germans had the same problem in WW2 it could not produce enough tanks, fighters to keep up with the losses and even though they had great stuff, and better tactics and training they lost .

Ukraine has no means to produce enough war material to keep them going, and the west isnt giving them enough to hold back the Russians .

In a short time the Russians will launch a massive 3 prong offensive again , the Ukraines simply dont have the means to stop it .

Not sure why you cant see this, but they are losing badly. for the moment they are holding their own in heavily fortified positions they cant do anything else. Just a matter of time. And the Russians wont quit until they hit the Dniper

Let's say you are correct and Russia wins. Do they move against Poland next?

 

[holdover]

Let's say you are correct and Russia wins. Do they move against Poland next?

I would highly doubt it. I would think that they leave a little slice of Ukraine between them and the Polish border. The Russians had a pretty rough time with Ukraine, I dont think they want to fight NATO after Ukraine. But that doesn't mean the Poles wont enter early either maybe independent of NATO and have a Ukraine 2 They could sieze parts of Ukraine an annex it to prevent the Russians from getting it . Dont know how well that would work out.

The purpose of the fight was to secure their own border, Not an attempt to conquer Europe. the purpose of Europe as has been stated by several people is the breakup of Russia .

Germany and Britian dont have the military might to take on Russia So they dont want any part of it. You could see NATO fracture if the Poles get involved.

 

[spat]

The trick is, We have to outspend them before they reach Dniper river. (NAGONNAHAPEN)



Thats the thing, they are no longer a sovereign state They are 100% dependent on other countries to exist. It is now a failed state .


According to Col Douglas Macgreggor ,the population Of Ukraine was 37-39 million at the start of the war. because Russia captured entire regions, because of people fleeing from the war , there are roughly 19 million Ukrainians left in ""free"" Ukraine. 50% are women 25% are to old,25% are to young.

Russia is 100% self sufficient, they can do it for a long time. They have tradeing partners like Kuwait and India who buy thier oil and gas and sell it back to the US whores for profit ,Russia isnt going anywhere. Ukraine is

the situation in Ukraine is bleak . They have no answer for whats coming. thier defense is going to crack and they have nothing to conduct large offensive operations with anymore. According to what I have read, Ukraine has used up 7 years production worth of javlin missles.in less than a year. the consumption rate exceeds the production rate which makes it mathematically impossible to sustain . If the US orders 100,000 javlin missles it will take 10 years or more to get them. It isnt a question of money , Its a question of production rate. the Germans had the same problem in WW2 it could not produce enough tanks, fighters to keep up with the losses and even though they had great stuff, and better tactics and training they lost .

Ukraine has no means to produce enough war material to keep them going, and the west isnt giving them enough to hold back the Russians .

In a short time the Russians will launch a massive 3 prong offensive again , the Ukraines simply dont have the means to stop it .

Not sure why you cant see this, but they are losing badly. for the moment they are holding their own in heavily fortified positions they cant do anything else. Just a matter of time. And the Russians wont quit until they hit the Dniper

We have way more javalins to sell them than the Russians have tanks to get blown up.

You act like Russia has an unlimited supply while we are running out.

Compare the production rate for anti tank weapons in the west to the production rate of tanks in Russia if you want to see what's sustainable.

 

[holdover]

You act like Russia has an unlimited supply while we are running out.

You act as if we have an unlimited supply of everything while they are running out.

U.S. aid to Ukraine totals $68 billion, and the White House has just asked Congress for another $37.7 billion. In the spring, the new Congress will consider aid in the context of the administration’s proposed FY 2024 budget. With these decisions ahead, it is worth reviewing how much aid there has been, what that aid does, and what the administration is requesting. Such a review turns up some surprises and will help clarify discussions about future aid packages.

What has nearly 100 billion in aid plus 8 years of aid bought Ukraine?

what are you going to say when the Ukrainian army collapses? They are in shambles right now . Russian Artillery out numbers them 20-1 60,000 Russian shells a day are falling on the Ukrainian army

Bakhmut is almost fallen. they are almost entirely surrounded , no more supplys for Bakhmut. the Ukrainians blew their own bridge in Bakhmut stranding its own troops on the enemy side of the river

 

[spat]

You act as if we have an unlimited supply of everything while they are running out.

U.S. aid to Ukraine totals $68 billion, and the White House has just asked Congress for another $37.7 billion. In the spring, the new Congress will consider aid in the context of the administration’s proposed FY 2024 budget. With these decisions ahead, it is worth reviewing how much aid there has been, what that aid does, and what the administration is requesting. Such a review turns up some surprises and will help clarify discussions about future aid packages.

What has nearly 100 billion in aid plus 8 years of aid bought Ukraine?

what are you going to say when the Ukrainian army collapses? They are in shambles right now . Russian Artillery out numbers them 20-1 60,000 Russian shells a day are falling on the Ukrainian army

Bakhmut is almost fallen. they are almost entirely surrounded , no more supplys for Bakhmut. the Ukrainians blew their own bridge in Bakhmut stranding its own troops on the enemy side of the river

Our aid to Ukraine last year exceeded the entire Russian military budget. We did that without it even affecting the pace of any other operations. Let that sink in.

And the fact is we *do* have an unlimited supply, and they *are* running out.

We made thousands of new anti-tank weapons last year, how many new tanks has Russia built ?

The fact is Ukraine is fighting this war using stocks of weapons we were going to retire shortly anyway because of shelf life or obsolescence. We already had orders in for the replacements before the fighting even started.

Russia is fighting this war with cold War surplus because they do not have anything else, and no where to get it.

It doesn't matter if Kuwait will launder their oil, the only people who will sell them tanks are their former customers who will gladly sell them their garbage back so they can buy new NATO gear.


How many *new* tanks or aircraft has Russia produced in the last 30 years ? You think they can just start now ?

Every Russian tank that gets dragged off behind a Ukranian tractor is one less they have permanently.

Every javalin or NLAW that's used to blow it up gets replaced by a new one arriving from Raytheon next month.

Visualizing the World’s Top 25 Fleets of Combat Tanks

The tank remains the backbone of modern twenty-first century armies. This infographic shows what countries have the largest combat fleets.

www.visualcapitalist.com

Lockheed has announced they are ramping javalin production up from 2100 to 4000 units per year.

Ramping Up Javelin Production to Support Increased Demands

The Javelin Weapon System is a difference-maker for operational commanders around the world. With an increase in global demand for the precision weapon system, the Javelin Joint Venture is responding to support our U.S. Army, U.S. Marine Corps and international customers.

www.lockheedmartin.com

What's Russia ramping their tank production rate up to again ?

 

[holdover]

Your fantasizing. Is that why the Ukrainians are getting their asses kicked? Is that why the Russians have 300,000 troops on the border? IS that why why the Ukraine front is collapsing in the Bakhmut? Is that why Ukraine has little armor and no effective airforce left? Is that why Russia holds 20% of Ukraine and Ukraine cant throw them out? Is that why Ukraine cannot produce arms?

You seriously think Ukraine is winning when they are begging for arms? when they are losing ground? when they are taking heavy casualties?

Every javalin or NLAW that's used to blow it up gets replaced by a new one arriving from Raytheon next month.

No it doesn't. they are begging for more for the last few months.

Every Russian tank that gets dragged off behind a Ukranian tractor is one less they have permanently.

Thats true for both sides except Only the winner gets to claim the field . The Russians have reclaimed more than Ukraine

How many *new* tanks or aircraft has Russia produced in the last 30 years ? You think they can just start now ?

Not a massive amount. Yes because they a massive number of cold war armor still left and production levels from 3 plants can produce 12-24 tanks a day ( Russian source) probably triple that amount in 3 months time, because the Russians, under emergency laws can force every company in Russia to produce needed parts 24 hours a day.

Russia is fighting this war with cold War surplus because they do not have anything else, and no where to get it.

Russia has all the natural resources it needs. Russia is fighting the war with cold war surplus because they didn't plan the war out ten fucking years ago . They did not forsee going to war with NATO , their production of modern arms was small because they felt it wasnt necessary Just like Germany, France and Britian, none of which have large stock piles of modern weapons.

Right now as we speak the Russians are advancing all along the front, they havent launched any major offensives just yet, Ukrainian troops are falling back and exhausted , they have little armor to counter the coming offensive , Once the Russians break through , Uk wont be able to even catch them , thier mobility is severely degraded, the ability to move war material is degraded, they dont control the air they cant stop the Russian artillery. they have no counter for ""garbage"" Russian tanks in manuevre warfare

The Russian leadership is, and has been awful, Ill give you that.

 

[spat]

Your fantasizing. Is that why the Ukrainians are getting their asses kicked? Is that why the Russians have 300,000 troops on the border? IS that why why the Ukraine front is collapsing in the Bakhmut? Is that why Ukraine has little armor and no effective airforce left? Is that why Russia holds 20% of Ukraine and Ukraine cant throw them out? Is that why Ukraine cannot produce arms?

You seriously think Ukraine is winning when they are begging for arms? when they are losing ground? when they are taking heavy casualties?



No it doesn't. they are begging for more for the last few months.


Thats true for both sides except Only the winner gets to claim the field . The Russians have reclaimed more than Ukraine


Not a massive amount. Yes because they a massive number of cold war armor still left and production levels from 3 plants can produce 12-24 tanks a day ( Russian source) probably triple that amount in 3 months time, because the Russians, under emergency laws can force every company in Russia to produce needed parts 24 hours a day.


Russia has all the natural resources it needs. Russia is fighting the war with cold war surplus because they didn't plan the war out ten fucking years ago . They did not forsee going to war with NATO , their production of modern arms was small because they felt it wasnt necessary Just like Germany, France and Britian, none of which have large stock piles of modern weapons.

Right now as we speak the Russians are advancing all along the front, they havent launched any major offensives just yet, Ukrainian troops are falling back and exhausted , they have little armor to counter the coming offensive , Once the Russians break through , Uk wont be able to even catch them , thier mobility is severely degraded, the ability to move war material is degraded, they dont control the air they cant stop the Russian artillery. they have no counter for ""garbage"" Russian tanks in manuevre warfare

The Russian leadership is, and has been awful, Ill give you that.

Pretty sure your notion of a sudden Russian breakthrough is about as accurate as the estimates of Russian success this time last year.

Yep, Ukraine is begging for weapons.

Yep, they would collapse quickly without them.

But the begging is working, and the supply from NATO isn't letting up.

300k additional troops won't help Russia if they have to walk the whole way due to lack of vehicles.

Certainly Russia could do much better if they employed their armor properly, but there is no indication whatsoever they are going to do that. It appears their strategy is going to be doing the same thing with more cannon fodder.

This has settled into a war of attrition. With NATO backing Ukraine, Russia has no chance in that. They need to either pack up and go home, or change the type of conflict.

But their strategy seems to be the one you are suggesting for them, which is to continue to pursue a war of attrition because Russia is so much larger than Ukraine.

The mistake there is that Ukraine isn't standing alone. They have all of NATO supplying them. Their supply of weapons and material might as well be unlimited at this point.

4000 new Javalins a year, compared to what, a couple hundred tanks a year from Russia? That does not sound like odds that favor Russia.

That is repeated all across the supply chain.

The Pentagon misplaced more money last year than the entire Russian Federation spent on all defense combined. You do not want to engage in a war of attrition under those circumstances.

 

[holdover]

4000 new Javalins a year, compared to what, a couple hundred tanks a year from Russia? That does not sound like odds that favor Russia.

That is repeated all across the supply chain.

See your wrong again. We gave them 5000 javlins, 600 Switchblade drones, British gave them 5000 NLAWs, Germans gave them 1000 Panzerfaust 3 , NATO nations gave hundreds of Carl gustaves

Around 12,000. and most are gone. did they kill 12,000 tanks? No.

why? because of corruption, some were stolen, some were destroyed, some were captured, and Ukraine used up the rest. Not all on tanks, some were used on APC's some were used on bunkers, some were misfired, some just missed the target .

So you mean to tell me after less than a year Ukraine has burned through 12000 antitank weapons and needs another 12000 when the production rate is 2000 a year? (not 4000).

Are you bad at math? they wont get enough weapons if we tried .

The mistake there is that Ukraine isn't standing alone. They have all of NATO supplying them. Their supply of weapons and material might as well be unlimited at this point.

NATO ??? LOL come on man, they havent produced jack shit in 20 years because they didnt have to. Trump was bitching about it . their stocks are low if they even have any and except Britian Most want nothing to do with it. The US is funding and supporting 90%

300k additional troops won't help Russia if they have to walk the whole way due to lack of vehicles.

Your kidding me. You dont understand the size and scope of the threat. they have plenty of tanks armor APCS in stock and producing more everyday. Russia invaded with only 150-200K troops , thats nothing . Your in for an eye opening dose of reality in the next few weeks months.

This has settled into a war of attrition. With NATO backing Ukraine, Russia has no chance in that. They need to either pack up and go home, or change the type of conflict.

not totally. for the moment Yes. Against NATO money and weapons yes, Against NATO? no

Pretty sure your notion of a sudden Russian breakthrough is about as accurate as the estimates of Russian success this time last year.

A lot of military experts predicted the same thing I did , and a lot of people were shocked to see the Russians botch the operation Nobody could have predicted that. I was more stunned than anyone. Presently the Russians are advancing along most the southern and Northern fronts with some sucess in the center.

So if they didnt learn a thing from their past mistakes, like you seem to think Then I guess they will all surrender.

Watch what happens when they go this time.

 

[tirwin1]

Interesting update from this guy. He correctly predicted a russian invasion years ago. But his tone is definitely more pessimistic regarding the ukrainians ability to win. His position on a possible nuclear exchange has also changed. Just a month ago on the Joe Rogan show he downplayed the possibility. Now he seems to think it is quite possible. His sources in the CIA must be getting nervous.

 

[spat]

See your wrong again. We gave them 5000 javlins, 600 Switchblade drones, British gave them 5000 NLAWs, Germans gave them 1000 Panzerfaust 3 , NATO nations gave hundreds of Carl gustaves

Around 12,000. and most are gone. did they kill 12,000 tanks? No.

why? because of corruption, some were stolen, some were destroyed, some were captured, and Ukraine used up the rest. Not all on tanks, some were used on APC's some were used on bunkers, some were misfired, some just missed the target .

So you mean to tell me after less than a year Ukraine has burned through 12000 antitank weapons and needs another 12000 when the production rate is 2000 a year? (not 4000).

Are you bad at math? they wont get enough weapons if we tried .




NATO ??? LOL come on man, they havent produced jack shit in 20 years because they didnt have to. Trump was bitching about it . their stocks are low if they even have any and except Britian Most want nothing to do with it. The US is funding and supporting 90%


Your kidding me. You dont understand the size and scope of the threat. they have plenty of tanks armor APCS in stock and producing more everyday. Russia invaded with only 150-200K troops , thats nothing . Your in for an eye opening dose of reality in the next few weeks months.


not totally. for the moment Yes. Against NATO money and weapons yes, Against NATO? no



A lot of military experts predicted the same thing I did , and a lot of people were shocked to see the Russians botch the operation Nobody could have predicted that. I was more stunned than anyone.

So if they didnt learn a thing from their past mistakes, like you seem to think Then I guess they will all surrender.

Watch what happens when they go this time.

So, we gave them 5000 javalins, and they took out maybe 1000 tanks.

Yep, we're not going to produce 5000 more this year, maybe 3000 ? The pre-war production rate was 2100, their target is 4000, assuming some time to ramp up I expect this year will be somewhere in between.

Plus, they haven't exhausted the 5000 yet, so maybe they are only using 4000 a year. If that's the case we can pretty much keep that up forever. How long can Russia afford to keep losing 1000 tanks/year for ?

You talk about them throwing more bodies at the Ukranians, as if that's some key to victory. They can throw a million guys into the meat grinder, but if they aren't supported with proper equipment they'll just die.

How many actual servicable tanks do you think Russia will be able to commit ?

The bottom line is that Russia's supplies of everything but meat puppets are dwindling, but Zelensky's panhandling is going gangbusters. Ukraine is better armed today than they have been at any point yet. You certainly can't say that about Russia.

 

[holdover]

The war in Ukraine is not going to end in a negotiated settlement. The Russians have already made it clear that they don’t trust the United States, so they’re not going to waste their time in a pointless gabfest. What the Russians are going to do is pursue the only option that is available to them: They are going to obliterate the Ukrainian Army, reduce a large part of the country to rubble, and force the political leadership to comply with their security demands. It’s a bloody and wasteful course of action, but there’s really no other option. Putin is not going to allow NATO to place its hostile army and missile sites on Russia’s border. He’s going to defend his country as best as he can by proactively eliminating emerging threats in Ukraine. This is why Putin has called up an additional 300,000 reservists to serve in Ukraine; because the Russians are committed to defeating the Ukrainian army and bringing the war to a swift end. Here’s a brief recap from Colonel Douglas MacGregor:

Washington’s proxy war with Russia is the result of a carefully constructed plan to embroil Russia in conflict with its Ukrainian neighbor. From the moment that President Putin indicated that his government would not tolerate a NATO military presence on Russia’s doorstep in Ukraine, Washington sought to expedite Ukraine’s development into a regional military power hostile to Russia. The Maidan coup allowed Washington’s agents in Kiev to install a government that would cooperate with this project. PM Merkel’s recent admission that she and her European colleagues sought to exploit the Minsk Accords to buy time for the military building in Ukraine confirms the tragic truth of this matter.” (“US Colonel explains America’s role in provoking Russia-Ukraine conflict“, Lifesite)


“The 2014 Minsk Agreement was an attempt to buy time for Ukraine. Ukraine used this time to become stronger, as you can see today.” According to the ex-Chancellor, “it was clear for everyone” that the conflict was suspended and the problem was not resolved, “but it was exactly what gave Ukraine the priceless time.” (Tass News Agency)

Merkel has been sharply criticized for admitting that she and the other western leaders deliberately deceived Russia about their true intentions vis a vis Minsk. The fact is, they had no intention of pressuring Ukraine to comply with the terms of the treaty and they knew it from the very beginning. What we know for a fact is that neither Merkel nor her allies were ever interested in peace. Second, we now know that they maintained the fraud for 7 years before she spilled the beans and admitted what they were really up-to. And finally, we now know from Merkel’s comments that Washington’s strategic objective was the opposite of the Minsk agreement. The real goal was to create a heavily-militarized Ukraine that would prosecute Washington’s proxy-war on Russia. That was the primary objective, war on Russia.


They wanted a war, which is the same reason why Boris Johnson put the kibosh on an agreement that Zelensky had negotiated with Moscow in March. Johnson sabotaged the deal because Washington wanted a war. It’s that simple.

But there is a price to pay for lying, and that price comes in the form of distrust, which is the pernicious erosion of confidence that makes it impossible to resolve issues of mutual concern. Russia’s deputy chair of the national Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, expressed his views on the matter just this week in the bitterest terms. He said:

The behavior of Washington and others this year “is the last warning to all nations: there can be no business with the Anglo-Saxon world [because] it is a thief, a swindler, a card-sharp that could do anything…. From now on we will do without them until a new generation of sensible politicians comes to power… There is nobody in the West we could deal with about anything for any reason.” (Ex-Russian President outlines timeline for reconciliation with the West, RT)


Europe is going to regret that it tied itself to Washington’s anvil and threw itself into the sea. Sometime in the near future –when they finally realize that their economic survival is inextricably linked to access to cheap fossil fuel– EU leaders will change course and implement a policy that ensures their own prosperity. They will withdraw from NATO’s ‘forever war’ and join the ranks of civilized nations seeking a secure and economically-integrated future. We expect that even NordStream, which was destroyed in the greatest act of industrial sabotage in the modern era, will be reconnected establishing the main energy artery that binds Russia to the EU in the world’s biggest free trade zone. Eventually, common sense will prevail and Europe will emerge from the slump brought on by its alliance with Washington. But, first, the conflagration between Russia and the West must play out in Ukraine, and the “Guarantor of Global Security” must be replaced by the one nation willing to fight Goliath on his own terms in a winner-take-all contest. Ukraine is shaping up to be the decisive battle in the war against the “rules-based system”, a war in which the United States is going to use ‘every trick in the book’ to maintain its grip on power. Check out this short blurb from political analyst John Mearsheimer who explains the means by which the US has preserved its dominant role in the global order:

“You cannot underestimate how ruthless the United States is. This is all covered-up in the textbooks and the classes that we take growing up because it’s all part of nationalism. Nationalism is all about creating myths about how wonderful your country is. It’s America right or wrong; we never do anything wrong. (But) if you really look at the way the United States has operated over time, its’ really amazing how ruthless we’ve been. And the British, the same is true of them as well But we cover it up. So, I’m just saying, if you are Ukraine and you’re living next to a powerful state like Russia Or you’re Cuba and you’re living next to a powerful state like the United States, you should be very, very careful because this is like sleeping in bed with an elephant. If that elephant rolls over on top of you, you’re dead. You’ve got to be very careful. Am I happy about the fact that this is the way the world works? No, I’m not. But it is the way the world works for better or worse.” (John Mearsheimer, “How the World Works“, You Tube; 1 minute)




Bottom line: The prospects for peace in Ukraine are zilch. The US foreign policy establishment has decided that the only way it can reverse America’s accelerating decline is through direct military confrontation. The war is Ukraine is the first manifestation of that decision. On the other hand, Russia no longer puts any stock in negotiations with the West, because western leaders cannot be trusted to honor their commitments or fulfill their treaty obligations. The irreconcilable differences of the two main parties makes escalation inevitable. Absent a partner that can be trusted, Putin has just one option for resolving the conflict: Overwhelming military force. That’s why he called up 300,000 reservists to serve in Ukraine, and that’s why he’ll call up 300,000 more if they are needed. Putin realizes that the only way forward is by lowering-the-boom quickly and imposing his own settlement on the vanquished. This is exactly what Mearsheimer predicted just weeks ago when he said this:

“The Russians are not going to roll over and play dead. In fact, what the Russians are going to do is crush the Ukrainians. They are going to bring out the big guns. They are going to turn places like Kiev, and other cities in Ukraine into rubble. They’re going to do Fallujas, they’re going to do Mosuls, they’re going to do Groznys …. When a great power feels threatened…the Russians are going to pull out all stops in Ukraine to make sure they win. …You want to understand that what we are talking about doing here, is backing a nuclear-armed great power– that sees what’s happening as an existential threat– into a corner. This is really dangerous.” (John Mearsheimer, Twitter)


“The American people don’t really understand that the Ukrainian Army in the Donbas is on the verge of collapse. They’ve taken hundreds of thousands of casualties… (and) they’re closing in on one hundred and fifty thousand dead. The 93rd Ukrainian Army Brigade was just withdrawn from Bahkmut– which has been turned into a Ukrainian bloodbath by the Russians– and they left after suffering 70 percent casualties. For them, that means that out of 4,000 men… they pulled out with about 1,200 men. That is a catastrophe, but that is what’s really happening. And when the Russians finally launch their offensive, Americans are going to watch this entire house of cards collapse. Then the only question is, will someone finally stand up and put an end to this utterly false narrative.” (“Colonel Douglas MacGregor”, Real America, Rumble; 8:45 min)

And here’s more MacGregor:

It is looking more and more like the Russians would like to complete their task in Donbas first. They want to eliminate all the Ukrainian forces that are in the Donbas… Remember, this was always an economy-of-force measure. It was designed to grind up as many Ukrainians as possible at the lowest possible cost to the Russians. That’s what’s been going on in southern Ukraine (and) it continues. It has worked brilliantly. And Surovikin, the theatre commander, has said that will continue until he’s ready to launch his offensive. When the offensive is launched, it will be a very different battle. But the interesting thing is, that the Ukrainians have taken so many casualties in the South, we are beginning to hear reports that they are on the verge of collapse. And that’s why we’re hearing about teenage boys age 14 or 15 pressed into service. …and we’re getting videos from Ukrainian soldiers saying,”The people in Kiev had better hope that the Russians get to them before we do… because we’ll kill them.” They are talking about people in the government, because they see no evidence that Zelensky’s government …gives a damn about them. They are running out of food and clothes; they are freezing, they are taking heavy casualties, and they are being driven back.” (“Will Ukraine have enough Fire Power?”, Col MacGregor, Judging Freedom, You Tube; 17:35 min)

Mercouris: 'Something Big Is On the Way' - LewRockwell

“The Russians have decided there is no way to negotiate an end to this. No one will negotiate in good faith; therefore we must crush the enemy. And that’s what’s coming.” Colonel Douglas MacGregor (9:35 minute) “Strictly speaking, we haven’t started anything yet.” Vladimir Putin The war in...

www.lewrockwell.com

 

[holdover]

You talk about them throwing more bodies at the Ukranians, as if that's some key to victory. They can throw a million guys into the meat grinder, but if they aren't supported with proper equipment they'll just die.

I never said that. The quantity of troops gives the attacker the ability to pin down forces and move past them . Its a huge advantage, Like haveing more receivers on the field than the defense can cover. If I have ten receivers and you only have 4 backs to cover them with with , your in a lot of trouble . Not marching single file into a machine gun nest like WW1 .

The last few months both sides have sat back and lobbed artillery with some skirmishes here and there while they both licked thiers wounds and prepared for the second half

 

[holdover]

All Im going to say is your going to be shocked when they drop the hammer. Your going to be scratching your head wondering what the hell just happened.

And dont forget the Russians are running out of missiles

 

[spat]

All Im going to say is your going to be shocked when they drop the hammer. Your going to be scratching your head wondering what the hell just happened.

And dont forget the Russians are running out of missiles

You have some secret back channel into the Russian military that nobody knows about?

You're awfully confident about something that seems very unlikely.

And I don't think troop numbers work the way you think they do. Things are a lot different when you're talking about half a million of something than when you're talking about a dozen.

 

[holdover]

Interesting update from this guy. He correctly predicted a russian invasion years ago. But his tone is definitely more pessimistic regarding the ukrainians ability to win. His position on a possible nuclear exchange has also changed. Just a month ago on the Joe Rogan show he downplayed the possibility. Now he seems to think it is quite possible. His sources in the CIA must be getting nervous.

This guy is the definition of misinformation

 

[holdover]

You have some secret back channel into the Russian military that nobody knows about?

LOL yes. its called mathematics.

Go look up whats happening in the south, go look up whats happening in Bakmut today,

 

[spat]

LOL yes. its called mathematics.

Well, one of us is drastically mistaken.

Be interesting in a few months to find out who.

 

[holdover]

Well, one of us is drastically mistaken.

Be interesting in a few months to find out who.

Your 100% correct. One of us is missing a lot of information. A few months should make things a bit clearer.

 

[tirwin1]

This guy is the definition of misinformation

What specifically did he say that is wrong?

 

[holdover]

Well for 1 he said Russia is trying to expand back to soviet era footprints. which I believe is nonsense just based on the military preparedness alone .

He says this war was always going to happen. since when? since the Russians allowed Ukraine to become their own nation? Or when the Ukrainians broke the Maiden agreement allowing them to be free in exchange that they dont join NATO and threaten Russia? which is a flagrant violation of the treaty which will result in military action ? No, this war wasn't always going to happen , nor was Russia prepared for it unlike Ukraine. In fact Russia begged Ukraine to rethink its position, that it had no other option than to fight a war. and Ukraine told him to go fuck himself. It was completely avoidable.

The Russians launched 8 expansion's since 92, 2 of which were the Chechen wars, 1 was Georgia trying to join NATO , 4 was the seziure of the crimea when Ukraine was going to put a NATO port in the black sea basically 10 feet away from Russia and control of the straights . 5 was the Donbass war which were the people of donbass refusing to honor the ""selection "" of zelinsky as president . and was back by Russia . Not sure what the other 3 were.

Eventually they will come for Poland and Romaina. Ok thats a nice opinion but I dont see Russia claiming they are going to invade NATO countries .

But then he states the Russians are incompetant at fighting a conventional war. Well no shit, they weren't planning it as he states. they werent even ready for Ukraine.

He further says if they win , they know they cant beat NATO conventionally so they are going to launch nuclear weapons . Bullshit .

He states that if Russia fails to capture Warsaw and the Baltic states they will cease to exist in a few decades. Absolute garbage .

He's attempting to paint a picture of necessity for the Russians to launch a nuclear war in order to Justify why Russia must be stopped to the sheep . Hes pushing fearporn .


he states If the Russians win We WILL have a nuclear exchange. If the Russians believed that they would have launched already .

Hes a western propagandist

 

[spat]

Well for 1 he said Russia is trying to expand back to soviet era footprints. which I believe is nonsense just based on the military preparedness alone .

He says this war was always going to happen. since when? since the Russians allowed Ukraine to become their own nation? Or when the Ukrainians broke the Maiden agreement allowing them to be free in exchange that they dont join NATO and threaten Russia? which is a flagrant violation of the treaty which will result in military action ? No, this war wasn't always going to happen , nor was Russia prepared for it unlike Ukraine. In fact Russia begged Ukraine to rethink its position, that it had no other option than to fight a war. and Ukraine told him to go fuck himself. It was completely avoidable.

The Russians launched 8 expansion's since 92, 2 of which were the Chechen wars, 1 was Georgia trying to join NATO , 4 was the seziure of the crimea when Ukraine was going to put a NATO port in the black sea basically 10 feet away from Russia and control of the straights . 5 was the Donbass war which were the people of donbass refusing to honor the ""selection "" of zelinsky as president . and was back by Russia . Not sure what the other 3 were.

Eventually they will come for Poland and Romaina. Ok thats a nice opinion but I dont see Russia claiming they are going to invade NATO countries .

But then he states the Russians are incompetant at fighting a conventional war. Well no shit, they weren't planning it as he states. they werent even ready for Ukraine.

He further says if they win , they know they cant beat NATO conventionally so they are going to launch nuclear weapons . Bullshit .

He states that if Russia fails to capture Warsaw and the Baltic states they will cease to exist in a few decades. Absolute garbage .

He's attempting to paint a picture of necessity for the Russians to launch a nuclear war in order to Justify why Russia must be stopped to the sheep . Hes pushing fearporn .


he states If the Russians win We WILL have a nuclear exchange. If the Russians believed that they would have launched already .

Hes a western propagandist

Russia has no right to tell Georgia, or Ukraine, or anyone what alliances they can and cannot join.

Would NATO have been justified in invading Belarus because they were aligning with Russia ? No, of course not. So Russia was not justified in invading anyone else either.

You don't get to tell your neighbors who they can be friends with.

Russia's naked aggression in Ukraine however *is* justification for NATO getting involved, even with boots on the ground if need be to stop it.

 

[MothMan]

You are okay with sending regular US Army soldiers/boots to fight in Ukraine? Asking for a friend.

 

[tirwin1]

Well for 1 he said Russia is trying to expand back to soviet era footprints. which I believe is nonsense just based on the military preparedness alone .

He says this war was always going to happen. since when? since the Russians allowed Ukraine to become their own nation? Or when the Ukrainians broke the Maiden agreement allowing them to be free in exchange that they dont join NATO and threaten Russia? which is a flagrant violation of the treaty which will result in military action ? No, this war wasn't always going to happen , nor was Russia prepared for it unlike Ukraine. In fact Russia begged Ukraine to rethink its position, that it had no other option than to fight a war. and Ukraine told him to go fuck himself. It was completely avoidable.

The Russians launched 8 expansion's since 92, 2 of which were the Chechen wars, 1 was Georgia trying to join NATO , 4 was the seziure of the crimea when Ukraine was going to put a NATO port in the black sea basically 10 feet away from Russia and control of the straights . 5 was the Donbass war which were the people of donbass refusing to honor the ""selection "" of zelinsky as president . and was back by Russia . Not sure what the other 3 were.

Eventually they will come for Poland and Romaina. Ok thats a nice opinion but I dont see Russia claiming they are going to invade NATO countries .

But then he states the Russians are incompetant at fighting a conventional war. Well no shit, they weren't planning it as he states. they werent even ready for Ukraine.

He further says if they win , they know they cant beat NATO conventionally so they are going to launch nuclear weapons . Bullshit .

He states that if Russia fails to capture Warsaw and the Baltic states they will cease to exist in a few decades. Absolute garbage .

He's attempting to paint a picture of necessity for the Russians to launch a nuclear war in order to Justify why Russia must be stopped to the sheep . Hes pushing fearporn .


he states If the Russians win We WILL have a nuclear exchange. If the Russians believed that they would have launched already .

Hes a western propagandist

He predicted Russia would move as far back as 2014 in his first book "The Accidental Superpower." He has maintained this position all along in his other 3 books (which are well worth reading). There are also countless youtube videos where he makes this assertion going back many years.

The reasons have to do with russia's geography and demographics. The geography between berlin and moscow is essentially flat which invites invaders. From a demographic perspective the russian population is rapidly aging. They are literally a dying country with more deaths than births. The number of military age men is going to be much less in 2030 and beyond compared to right now. The russians want to expand their borders to make them shorter and to absorb certain geographic roadblocks. This will allow them to defend the borders with the reduced number of men in arms. The problem for NATO is ukraine is on the way to the final geographic targets the russians want - which are in poland and the baltic states.

I think he's absolutely correct the russians wouldn't stand a chance in a conventional war against NATO. They have made a very poor showing against ukraine's third rate military. It's likely they would suffer significant losses against the combined NATO forces. If their conventional forces are destroyed and they believe this is a war of necessity why wouldn't they use nukes?

 

[holdover]

The reasons have to do with russia's geography and demographics. The geography between berlin and moscow is essentially flat which invites invaders.

Actually Ukraine and the Polish border is pretty hilly . I cant tell how big the mountains are from the map


I have no Issues about that fact. But consider, The Russians allowed the Ukraine to break away thereby exposing themselves . then they want to secure it again later on. Ehhhhhhhh, I 'm not buying that as the reason to invade. So long as NATO stood away from that corridor the Russians were Ok with it. the problem began when NATO wanted to get closer to the Russian border. Thats been the real issue all along

I dont think they have any interest in the Baltic states , They are small countries , and were never a real threat to Russia Even with NATO.

I agree, NATO would beat the Russians , but not as easy as you would think by the virtue that NATO hasn't done a whole lot of spending the last 25 years . 1980's NATO forces would have spanked them pretty bad . the NATO countries are a lot weaker today. But once they could establish air supremacy, even locally . its set match.

 

[Mosinitis]

 

[spat]

You are okay with sending regular US Army soldiers/boots to fight in Ukraine? Asking for a friend.

I didn't say it was a good idea.

I said if Russia's invasion of Ukraine was justified by them wanting to join NATO, then NATO would be justified in invading to stop them.

You can't claim Russia has a self defense right to invade but nobody else does.

My actual feeling is that Russia's invasion was not remotely justified despite whatever rhetoric they produce.

I also think it is in NATO's interest to stop them, regardless of whether Ukraine is a member or not. For reasons that were demonstrated repeatedly in the last century.

I think if NATO had taken the threat seriously 10 years ago we wouldn't be in this predicament today.

 

[GOPerfect]

The areas in red are sounding Air raid signals as I type....

 

[holdover]

The areas in red are sounding Air raid signals as I type....

View attachment 190151

The Russians have been out of missiles since last March