Ukraine - Russia Conflict (Original Title: Things are heating up in the Donbass)

[holdover]

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilization during an address to the nation on Wednesday morning. He said the Defense Ministry had recommended drawing military reservists into active service as the country faces a protracted conflict in Ukraine and Donbass.

The measure is sensible and necessary under the circumstances, Putin said, considering that Russia is fighting “the entire Western military machine” in Ukraine. He has already signed an order for the call-up to start immediately.

The move will see the armed forces draw on military reservists only, and those who have completed national service, the president added. He promised that they would be provided with additional training, along with all the benefits due to people involved in active duty.


Were talkin, access to millions of soldiers.

 

[holdover]

Russia will form Its own foreign legion , Allowing volunteers to fight in Ukraine

 

[tirwin1]

Another perspective on the war:

Ukraine Trends and Thoughts

This is a post gathering together various things I've been pondering recently. To start with the most recent, I just watched the very long Perun YouTube

ombreolivier.liberty.me

The writer predicts Ukraine will actually invade Russia.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Another perspective on the war:

Ukraine Trends and Thoughts

This is a post gathering together various things I've been pondering recently. To start with the most recent, I just watched the very long Perun YouTube

ombreolivier.liberty.me

The writer predicts Ukraine will actually invade Russia.

As someone who doesn't want ww3, I think this is a horrible idea.

I absolutely think it's possible. Ukraine is being poked and prodded by the west to keep going. All the while the ukies are going to be billions and billions in debt to the US. The US and NATO definitely have leverage over them and I'm sure they are trying to steer things Behind the scenes.


Also I don't know about that article. IMO the losses are far higher than the author predicts so IMO I can't take it too seriously when I think he's so far that to me it almost reads like propoganda.

I think I'm pretty impartial here and I would be quite shocked if Ukrainian and Russian loses aren't each 40,000+. There are massive battles taking place that we haven't seen in scale since WW2.

I believe the US lost around 5000 military members in Iraq. We had complete air, armor and technology superiority. We had the best military medicine and evacuations in history. Without our medical units and priority on treating wounded our loses would have been higher quite a few who lived and counted as wounded would have ended up as KIA.

I can't imagine Ukraine or Russia have the medical capabilities and on such a scale to prevent the same thing from happening to them.

Imo I just can't take that article seriously if iny opinion o think they are so far off on the casualty figures, I wonder to myself what other assumptions has he gotten wrong.

 

[holdover]

Another perspective on the war:

Ukraine Trends and Thoughts

This is a post gathering together various things I've been pondering recently. To start with the most recent, I just watched the very long Perun YouTube

ombreolivier.liberty.me

The writer predicts Ukraine will actually invade Russia.

Nahhhh, If they are winning it would most likely be only military targets, or gain an edge in negotiations.

 

[tirwin1]

As someone who doesn't want ww3, I think this is a horrible idea.

I absolutely think it's possible. Ukraine is being poked and prodded by the west to keep going. All the while the ukies are going to be billions and billions in debt to the US. The US and NATO definitely have leverage over them and I'm sure they are trying to steer things Behind the scenes.

What's interesting is the occupation of russian territory may be a deliberate negotiating tactic for any peace talks. The russians have forcefully taken thousands of ukrainians out of the country. They are unlikely to repatriate them unless there is a significant reason to, like regaining lost territory.

The cynicism on display by the part of the US, Germany and France is breathtaking. Germany and France are already afraid of ukraine's ability to compete with them and the US is glad to see ukraine continue to weaken the russians. So while they would all like to see ukraine "win" they wouldn't mind if ukraine was seriously damaged for years to come as a result.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

What's interesting is the occupation of russian territory may be a deliberate negotiating tactic for any peace talks. The russians have forcefully taken thousands of ukrainians out of the country. They are unlikely to repatriate them unless there is a significant reason to, like regaining lost territory.

The cynicism on display by the part of the US, Germany and France is breathtaking. Germany and France are already afraid of ukraine's ability to compete with them and the US is glad to see ukraine continue to weaken the russians. So while they would all like to see ukraine "win" they wouldn't mind if ukraine was seriously damaged for years to come as a result.

This i totally agree with.

I also think it's tragic that Ukraine is being used as a literal pawn right now.

 

[Arjuna]

Putin reportedly enlists serial killers, a cannibal to fight in Ukraine war

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Putin reportedly enlists serial killers, a cannibal to fight in Ukraine war

I'll be honest maybe this is an unpopular opinion but if the situation was reversed and we were at war with "Mexico" since it's a comparable for Russia/Ukraine.

I wouldn't mind forming battalions of convicts to go be used as cannon fodder for a chance to earn freedom and preserve the lives of our volunteer military. If a bunch of our rapists and burglars get killed off and it saves American servicemen lives what's the downside?

The French foreign legion isn't much difference in how it's formed. They're just very highly trained and discipline and have French officers in command.

 

[tirwin1]

Another perspective on Putin's order:

UKRAINE WAR: Putin Threatens Nukes, Announces Partial Mobilization

Prepare for a long Ukraine War, as Russian strongman Vladimir Putin announced the mobilization of 30

pjmedia.com

It answers one of my questions. It will be months and quite possibly a year before the new troops are effectively deployed on the front.

One very interesting takeaway - one way flight tickets out of Russia are seeing so much increased interest the government has ordered airlines to stop selling tickets to all military age men. Doesn't seem like there is overwhelming support for the war lol.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Another perspective on Putin's order:

UKRAINE WAR: Putin Threatens Nukes, Announces Partial Mobilization

Prepare for a long Ukraine War, as Russian strongman Vladimir Putin announced the mobilization of 30

pjmedia.com

It answers one of my questions. It will be months and quite possibly a year before the new troops are effectively deployed on the front.

One very interesting takeaway - one way flight tickets out of Russia are seeing so much increased interest the government has ordered airlines to stop selling tickets to all military age men. Doesn't seem like there is overwhelming support for the war lol.

Sadly I think the same thing would occur here.

I don't think that mentality is limited to just Russia and Ukraine of banning military aged males from leaving. I fear a significant percentage of American military aged males would also flee to Canada/Mexico/somewhere under similar circumstances.

We're not even technically at war now and our military can't meet our recruitment goals for the branches.



I think it's more telling that this action is an indicator of what Putin has planned, what his thought process is, and what they are preparing for. IMO this is an indicator that they genuinely think, are planning for, and are expecting to be fighting ww3 in short time frame. They are preparing for full scale war.

That's my take away

 

[tirwin1]

Sadly I think the same thing would occur here.

I don't think that mentality is limited to just Russia and Ukraine of banning military aged males from leaving. I fear a significant percentage of American military aged males would also flee to Canada/Mexico/somewhere under similar circumstances.

We're not even technically at war now and our military can't meet our recruitment goals for the branches.



I think it's more telling that this action is an indicator of what Putin has planned, what his thought process is, and what they are preparing for. IMO this is an indicator that they genuinely think, are planning for, and are expecting to be fighting ww3 in short time frame. They are preparing for full scale war.

That's my take away

Possibly. But with their lack of success against ukraine, how do they think they could really fight a war with the Nato countries?

 

[tirwin1]

Some insight into Russian training/logistics from a former commander of US army in Europe.


He doesn't have much good to say regarding the russian's training system.

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

Possibly. But with their lack of success against ukraine, how do they think they could really fight a war with the Nato countries?

I still don't know what to think and what's Real happening over there. Theres a lot of propoganda and exaggerated truths.

Things I think we can all agree on

Russia has attempted to limit collateral damage to critical civilian infrastructure.
Russia expected to be seen as welcomed in many areas, that did not occur.
Ukraine is putting up a spirited defense of their homeland and has had their entire "military aged male" population mobilized to fight.
Ukraine is receiving hundreds of billions of dollars in advanced western weapons and is also providing real time intelligence, targeting and decision making support.

Ukraine is at the absolute peak of their power. Once these mobilized forces take losses that can't be replaced and they've depleted their stocks they will be in trouble.


Edit,

Forgot to add that the one thing I absolutely cannot get my mind around is how Russias air force has not gained complete air superiority yet. That is quite a surprise.

 

[Vapor]

I think it's pretty clear that the only real interest the u.s. has in this is to so severely weaken Russia that the U.S. military can completely turn its eyes to China.



That's been the goal all along. Give a Russia who is well past its di polar world leader days, even more unreplaceable and crippling loses to an aging military whose tech is mostly stuck in the 90s.

 

[22Cool]

They have the Numbers though and we can look back into history and see how they beat the Germans by sheer numbers. I wish him and his Countrymen the best of luck.

They do have the numbers, but I believe Germany lost to Russia in WWII because they started a 2nd front war (stupid) while also stretching their lines way too thin and then the Russian winter set in when they were not prepared for it. Russia won by luck imo.

 

[22Cool]

Why on earth would China want a piece of that debacle ?

Or anyone else for that matter.

What could they possibly hope to gain ?


I could see China *selling* stuff to Russia, they can gain cash that way with little downside. But actually putting troops on the ground ? Just why ?

I agree. Also I feel China simply can't afford to enter the fray knowing that many countries will then boycott their products like we did for Russia. Having the U.S. suddenly stop buying Chinese goods will likely cause their economy to collapse.

 

[tirwin1]

Forgot to add that the one thing I absolutely cannot get my mind around is how Russias air force has not gained complete air superiority yet. That is quite a surprise.

That's a rather telling piece of data, don't you think? If they can't even establish air superiority what does that say about their overall capability?

 

[Drinkthekoolaid]

That's a rather telling piece of data, don't you think? If they can't even establish air superiority what does that say about their overall capability?

I agree that's why I'm very confused.

I really have no idea what's happening over there.

 

[fresch]

Is it even really happening or just theater?
With all countries just splitting money up!

 

[holdover]

That's a rather telling piece of data, don't you think? If they can't even establish air superiority what does that say about their overall capability?

Dont read to much into it. Most of Ukraine's air force was destroyed. Ukraine does have very high end Russian built air defense and Nato air defense too. They probably dont have the numbers of high end aircraft to waste on ground targets I imagine they are being very conservative with what they have . If the Russian airforce suffered losses they would be wide open for a NATO attack (Not saying they would) but you dont want to go spending your high end equipment on ground targets . You need to hold them in reserve. When we went to war in the gulf, We left air wings in the US and Europe for the same reason.

Whats holding Russia back is fear of NATO ,Last thing they want to give them is a legitimate excuse to jump into the war (which looks inevitable at this point )

Bear in mind , NATO is running out of free stuff. thier stocks are down and Ukraine is usieng it up at an incredible rate and selling it on the Black market . This pace cannot be sustained forever. We are giving them less and less.

 

[livingston]

How close is Russia before they use an EMP or Nukes. This seems to be mentioned more and more. .. How would you prepare for this ... Have you prepared . for this situation.

Putin's NUCLEAR threat to the West: Vladimir warns Ukraine's allies he will use 'weapons of destruction', announces mobilisation of another 300,000 troops and declares 'I am NOT bluffing'​

• Vladimir Putin has threatened the West with nuclear weapons over Ukraine, telling leaders: 'I'm not bluffing'
• Desperate despot also announced mobilisation of 300,000 reservists, first Russian mobilisation since WW2
• Occupied Ukrainian territories will be annexed to Russia, he said, and 'all means' will be used to defend them
• Ukraine dismissed the threat, saying it is 'predictable' and shows the war is not going as Putin had planned
• Scroll down to read Putin's address in full
• https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11233965/Ukraine-war-Putin-announces-partial-military-mobilisation-Russia.html

 

[Arjuna]

Russians trying to avoid war call-up search ‘how to break arm at home’

 

[livingston]

‘Naïve’ to think Russia will lose war, says Dr Jordan Peterson​

Notions that the Russians are going to lose the war in Ukraine are “naïve,” says clinical psychologist Dr Jordan Peterson. “Or that we’re going to win,” he said. “I don’t understand that. What do you mean we’re going to win? What are we going to win here exactly? Dr Peterson said even if Vladimir Putin allowed Russia to retreat from Ukraine, the country would be left in “smoking ruins”.

 

[tirwin1]

Russians trying to avoid war call-up search ‘how to break arm at home’

That can't be good. I wonder just how many of the desired 300,000 will show up?

Combined with the street protests Putin cannot be feeling very confident at the moment.

 

[livingston]

China and India bought $9 billion worth of additional Russian crude in the 2nd quarter, undercutting the West's attempt to squeeze Moscow's finances​

• The two nations bought $9 billion in additional Russian crude in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, a Financial Times report says.
• China and India together imported 11 million additional tonnes during that span.
• India alone imported 8.42 million tonnes in the second quarter, up from 0.66 million tonnes in the first.
• Tatneft, a Russian oil producer, saw profits jump 52% year-over-year for the first half of 2022, the FT reports. And last month, Russia exported more oil compared to any previous August on record, according to the Institute of International Finance.
• 

  China and India bought $9 billion worth of additional Russian crude in the 2nd quarter, undercutting the West's attempt to squeeze Moscow's finances - NewsBreak

  The two nations bought $9 billion in additional Russian crude in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, a Financial Times report says. China and India together imported 11 million additional tonnes during that span. India alone imported 8.42 million tonnes in the second quarter, up...

  www.newsbreak.com

 

[livingston]

Saudi Arabia is lowering oil prices for Asia and Europe but is hiking them for most US buyers​

• Saudi Arabia is lowering the price of its premier crude for buyers in Asia and Europe but hiking US prices.
• Saudi Aramco is reducing prices by $4 a barrel for Asian refineries and by $2 for European customers.
• The state-run giant is raising prices by $0.50 for most US buyers but kept prices at current levels for its Arab Light barrels.
• 

  Saudi Arabia is lowering oil prices for Asia and Europe but is hiking them for most US buyers - NewsBreak

  Saudi Arabia is lowering the price of its premier crude for buyers in Asia and Europe but hiking US prices. Saudi Aramco is reducing prices by $4 a barrel for Asian refineries and by $2 for European customers. The state-run giant is raising prices by $0.50 for most US buyers...

  www.newsbreak.com

where is joe when you need him ?

 

[livingston]

 

[holdover]

He needs to be removed for being unfit for public office.

 

[spat]

I agree. Also I feel China simply can't afford to enter the fray knowing that many countries will then boycott their products like we did for Russia. Having the U.S. suddenly stop buying Chinese goods will likely cause their economy to collapse.

I think China mag count on our addiction to their cheap crap to keep us buying.

They're probably right about that. They would take a hit, but nothing they aren't willing to sacrifice.

But I really don't see that they have anything to gain from helping Putin either. A little bit of cheap oil ? How is that worth it ?